Covid deaths, what the experts think of the calculation methods
"Too many Covid deaths in Italy?". Here are the answers and analyzes of Rasi, Vaia, Gismondo, Bassetti and the Higher Institute of Health (Iss)
In Italy there have been about 150,000 Covid deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, an almost absolute record when compared to other countries. In fact, there are 247 per 100 thousand inhabitants, writes the Sole24Ore , which reminds us that only the countries of Eastern Europe, Belgium (250) and the United States (267) do worse than us. The United Kingdom, on the other hand, has 230, France 202 and Germany 141.
It is therefore unexplained why our country has such high numbers.
THE DOUBT OF RASI
The curve drops but the number of deaths is still too high. This is the thought of Guido Rasi, former director of the European Medicines Agency (Ema) and now consultant to emergency commissioner Francesco Figliuolo.
“Four hundred deaths a day is really a lot. The justification that we are an elderly country is not enough to explain them. We need a serious study. We do not want to blame anyone, but we must understand what is wrong, if the problem lies in home care, in hospitalization times or in those of transfer to intensive care ”, reflects the immunologist in an interview with Repubblica .
“We need to compare the procedures followed in hospitals where things are better with those of others and conform to the most virtuous practices. And we need to understand if we are making the best use of all the weapons we have, from monoclonals to the new antiviral drugs ", suggests Rasi, who believes that at the moment" there is too much information that we lack ".
Among these: “Do the deaths concern vaccinated people? This data is important for monitoring the duration of immunity. Were they already serious from other pathologies or could their death have been prevented? Here there could be a problem in the care of the sick. It is also essential to know whether the infection was caused by Delta or Omicron. Delta's victims are in fact destined to reduce in the coming days, given that the old variant has now practically disappeared. But even if Omicron turns out to be very lethal, then we should worry about the future and be more careful with reopening. However, this data, from what I know, is not available in Italy ".
WHAT DO YOU THINK GO
Francesco Vaia, general manager of Spallanzani in Rome, also agrees with Rasi, who defines the number of Covid deaths in Italy as "an anomalous figure" and for this reason he tells La Stampa that "the time has come to carry out an analytical analysis of mortality from Covid ".
According to him, “many deaths are with and not due to Covid, we also see it here at Spallanzani. In countries like Germany that have made this verification, the effective mortality from Covid has been reduced by 25% ".
THE OPINION OF GISMONDO AND BASSETTI
"We need to investigate the case studies in depth to understand why in Italy, despite the decline in infections and hospitalizations, the number of deaths is so high – writes Repubblica , reporting the words of Maria Rita Gismondo, virologist of the Sacco of Milan – There could still be deaths due to the Delta variant but there could also be an incorrect codification of Covid deaths as many are now showing ".
No doubt even for the infectious disease specialist Matteo Bassetti: "Despite the Omicron variant and the vaccines are taking us out of the pandemic, the number of deaths classified as Covid in Italy is too high even compared to other European countries".
ANALYZING COVID DEATH
Analyzing Covid deaths and the causes that caused them is also the opinion of Marina Davoli, director of the Lazio epidemiology department who manages the daily mortality surveillance system in about 50 cities for the Ministry of Health.
In an interview with Repubblica he said: “Analyzing total mortality allows us to identify excess deaths, directly attributable to Covid but also that do not depend on the virus or are only indirectly so. The data could therefore also include people affected by other diseases but not treated or treated late, due to the pandemic ".
The same alarm was raised by the president of the Italian Association of Medical Oncology (Aiom), Saverio Cinieri, who pointed out how, for example, the increase in serious cases of cancer was also favored by delays in diagnosis and treatment. accumulated over the long months of the pandemic.
IDENTIKIT COVID VICTIMS
Repubblica , to explain the record number of Covid deaths in Italy, tried to trace the profile of the victims: "average age 80, with almost 4 diseases each, from heart disease to respiratory failure, from hypertension to oncological diseases".
It should also be remembered that our country not only has a high number of elderly people (1 out of 4 is over 65), but it was also the first to be affected in Europe in 2020.
THE ANSWER OF ISS
So, everyone agrees. Scientists, doctors, virologists, epidemiologists agree that the numbers do not add up, however, the Higher Institute of Health (ISS) does not seem to be of the same opinion.
The ISS, in fact, underlined that Italy is among the most "scrupulous" countries in registering deaths from Covid, which include – as foreseen by the World Health Organization (WHO) – also all those for whom Covid is was a "determining cause" of death.
Quotidiano Sanità also reminds that being positive at the time of death does not necessarily mean being counted in Covid deaths. Indeed, "for some pathologies the possible correlation with Covid is excluded, such as for malignant tumors, some infectious diseases of particular interest, accidents and suicides".
WRONG IS PLAUSIBLE BUT …
Of course, the newspaper writes, errors in compiling the Istat certification of Covid deaths that the doctor deals with can happen, but "in the latest report by Inail and the Higher Institute of Health on the analysis of mortality, a possible overestimation of the '11% in the registration of Covid deaths. Estimation that could, among other things, be reduced this year given that, compared to 2020, the mechanism for classifying deaths has now been run in ".
CONFIRMATION OF FNOMCEO
Filippo Anelli, president of the National Federation of Orders of Surgeons and Dentists (Fnomceo), also confirmed to Quotidiano Sanità that reporting positivity to Covid "does not mean making it the cause of death". “It is not correct to say this. This is not how the system works. If one has diabetes or Covid – concluded Anelli – and dies following a road accident, he will report the presence of these pathologies but a road accident will be recorded as the primary cause of death ".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/sanita/morti-covid-cosa-pensano-gli-esperti-dei-metodi-di-calcolo/ on Sun, 13 Feb 2022 16:29:44 +0000.