Does Italy rely on France in Libya? Fabbri’s analysis (Limes)
The Paris conference on Libya closes with a statement full of "useless announcements" on the elections, according to analyst Dario Fabbri of Limes. The flattening of Italy over France also emerges. Here because
The Paris conference on Libya, which was attended by France, Italy, Germany, Egypt, the United States and Libya, ended with a statement that essentially reaffirms two points: support for the Libyan elections scheduled for December 24 (and the contrast , by means of sanctions, of anyone who tries to interfere with the process) and the request for removal of foreign fighters present in the territory. The reference is to the Turkish soldiers and Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group, who act as unofficial agents of the Kremlin's foreign policy.
UNCERTAINTIES
There are about six weeks left to vote for the renewal of the Libyan presidency and parliament, but the uncertainties – mainly due to the conflicts between the various factions competing for power – are still many. In fact, the joint press release of the conference reads that the nations gathered in Paris support the electoral process "which begins" on December 24: until recently, however, the request was that the two votes be held on that one day .
Moreover, Libya still lacks a regulatory agreement that establishes who can stand as president. For example, interim prime minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah said he would not participate in the elections, but changed his mind. On the list of candidates, in addition to Muammar Gaddafi's son, there is also Khalifa Haftar, the general known for the assault on Tripoli in 2019, whose stronghold is in the east of the country.
THE FABBRI ANALYSIS (LIMES)
Dario Fabbri, a geopolitical analyst and scientific advisor to Limes , explained that the Paris conference “provides new data while revealing the harsh reality. First of all, he says that Rome has flattened itself on the French position ”: historically Italy has been close to the government of Tripoli (previously run by Fayez al-Sarraj), while France has supported Haftar.
“After having suffered the overthrow of Gaddafi by Paris and having opposed the influence embodied by the self-styled general Haftar”, continues Fabbri, “in this phase the Italian government tries to get closer to France to survive in the former fourth bank. An attempt that is part of the broader Quirinal Treaty, a Franco-Italian agreement of imminent conclusion, designed to jointly press on Germany so that it does not return to austerity, which should also include the 'common' position on Libya, a sign of a continuing fragility of our country on both dossiers ".
THE TREATY OF THE QUIRINALE, ACCORDING TO PELANDA
On Start Magazine the analyst Carlo Pelanda explained that the Qurinal treaty – an agreement, not yet completed, of bilateral cooperation, similar to the Elysée treaty between France and Germany – could represent, for Rome, "a self-annexation to France, industrial and strategic, sweetened but substantial ".
"There is a palpable and embarrassing asymmetry" between the two sides, says Pelanda: "the French technicians show they know very well what they want, while the Italians are confused, they try to make counter-proposals that are weak because they lack perspective".
DO TURKEY AND RUSSIA COMMAND IN LIBYA?
Returning to the Paris conference on Libya, on Limes Fabbri writes that "the mild invitation to retreat for soldiers and mercenaries testifies that Turks and Russians are in charge, respectively based in Tripolitania and Cyrenaica". Russian mercenaries fought alongside the self-styled Libyan National Army in the east of the country; the Turkish fighters (and the drones) instead supported the forces of Tripoli, managing to repel Haftar's attack on the capital and overwriting their influence in Libya over the Italian one.
“Beyond the useless announcements regarding the elections of December 24th, as if there was public opinion in Libya and those who really dominate the territory governed”, continues Fabbri, “it remains that Ankara and Moscow will continue to dispute the greater influence in the country. Also through the use of contractors . Regardless of France and Italy who try to unite their weaknesses ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/elezioni-libia-italia-francia/ on Tue, 16 Nov 2021 07:57:25 +0000.