Elections in Bulgaria, all the challenges
Only six months after the last elections, Bulgaria returns to the vote, amid very uncertain prospects. Letizia Storchi's article for International Affairs
A little over six months after the last electoral count (October 2022), Bulgaria is back to voting again, but with the far from certain prospect of a stable government and parliament.
BULGARIA HAS NO MAJORITY
The repeated electoral cycles of 2022 (April, July and finally October) have led citizens, tired by the continuous media campaigns, to not elect a Parliament with a significant majority either for a single party or for a coalition of parties. In fact, if the GERB party (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) formally won the elections with 25.3% of the seats, the result did not in any case allow it to govern independently. The attempt to put GERB's Nikolay Gabrovski as prime minister was in fact rejected by Parliament on December 14, after more than two months of agreements and disagreements between the parties.
Since the "winning" parties failed to form a government, the next mandate was entrusted to the second political force in the country (with 20% of the seats), the EPP (People's Party), on 3 January 2023. Not even in this case, however, the political parties and Parliament agreed on the Prime Minister's name.
The third and final mandate was conferred on the BSP (Socialist Party), which, in the wake of the differences faced by the other two previous parties, resolved in a stalemate. At this point, President Rumen Radev elected Galab Donev as interim prime minister, ahead of early elections on April 2, 2023. Donev is considered a technician, rather than a real politician, as he is not affiliated with any particular party, but held various political offices, including Minister of Labor between 2017 and 2021.
SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
If on the one hand we observe how the historical parties are not particularly unbalanced or in opposition to European support in the war in Ukraine, on the other hand, already in October 2022 a dispute had emerged between President Rumen Radev and the party "We continue the change” of former premier Kiril Petkov and his closest allies, Democratic Bulgaria, on arms shipments to Ukraine.
Radev and the Socialist Party, more historically close to Russia 's positions, feared that the shipment of arms would endanger Bulgaria's position in the European Union and in relation to NATO. The issue continued to be discussed in Parliament in the following months, without a shared solution being found. The various political forces have returned to discussing the issue in view of the April 2023 elections, but with less heated tones than in October 2022, perhaps also as a result of the agreements made individually between Petokov and Zelensky on the shipment of ammunition.
Nowadays therefore, the tacit support for Ukraine by GERB and the parties allied to "Democratic Bulgaria", in line with EU provisions, sees an active confrontation by the Socialist Party and a resurgence of pro-Russian parties. Furthermore, it seems that these parties have recently changed their narrative in anticipation of the April elections, coming to define themselves as " bulwarks against the invasion of EU values - and currency ".
THE MIGRANT ISSUE
The resurgence of pro-Russian parties, such as Revival, in this historical period is not accidental, but rather the result of the veto of 22 December 2022 by Austria and the Netherlands against Bulgaria and Romania. Although it is not present among the topics of greater political importance, the debate on the truth offers interesting reflections on how "minor" parties can play an important role in future relations between Sofia and Brussels. The veto in question, which was not applied to Croatia, was justified by the need to safeguard the EU's eastern borders against illegal migratory routes.
While the current Foreign Minister, Nikolay Mikov , claims that Bulgaria will be able to meet the accession criteria required by the EU by October this year, the risk of not having a Parliament and a government stable following the April elections gives reason to fear the opposite.
In addition to this context, Bulgaria will have to deal with the delay in the disbursement of funds from the Recovery Fund by the European Commission. In fact, if the future government fails to demonstrate that it is implementing the social and economic reforms envisaged, there is the risk that the funds promised by the EU will be delayed in arriving, further slowing down Sofia's adoption of the euro.
THE PROBLEM OF CORRUPTION
Following the announcement of new sanctions by the United States against some Bulgarian politicians for their proximity to members of the Russian government and endemic corruption (including Vladislav Goranov, Borissov's former finance minister) the major parties they distanced themselves from the accused.
In particular, GERB, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) and the Socialist Party have declared that they have closed relations with the accused exponents, while requesting certain proof of the involvement of politicians in cases of corruption or mismanagement of financial resources . In partial contrast to the positions of GERB and the Socialist Party, the leaders of "Democratic Bulgaria" and "Let's Continue the Change" considered that the sanctions were indicative of the need for a reform of the judicial system, while not going into the merits of the charges.
ELECTION PREDICTIONS
Taking into consideration the exit polls, a week after the vote, the electorate appears divided between GERB (former prime minister Boyko Borissov's party) and the coalition "Democratic Bulgaria" and "Let's Keep the Change": these forces, it is assigned around 25% of the preferences. The conservative Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) and the pro-Russian Revival party follow at a safe distance, with 13% of the votes each. On the other hand, the Socialist Party (8%) and “There is a nation” (3%) by former presenter Slavi Trifonov, both in decline for some time, are losing ground.
The challenge will be played out between the centre-right party GERB and the Coalition of Liberal Parties, both of which will need the support of the other political forces to form a solid executive. This uncertain possibility will all depend on the actual votes and on the requests made in particular by the DPS and by Revival, once the electoral counting is complete.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/bulgaria-elezioni-prospettive/ on Sat, 01 Apr 2023 05:16:13 +0000.