Energy crisis, how much does Italy risk compared to France and Germany? Report
An analysis by the Confindustria study center reveals how, compared to France and Germany, Italy is the country where the energy crisis risks causing the greatest damage (in all sectors). Reasons and data
The increase in the prices of energy raw materials is not a novelty caused by the war, but a condition that has been progressively going on since last year, when in December 2021 it had already reached critical levels. The conflict in Ukraine caused by Russia has further aggravated the situation.
This is confirmed by a survey by the Confindustria Study Center which, comparing Italy with France and Germany, observes how our country risks paying a higher price due to the energy crisis.
IMPACT OF THE ENERGY CRISIS: ITALY VS FRANCE AND GERMANY
The study states, in fact, that "with unchanged pre-crisis policies, the incidence of energy costs on the total production costs for the Italian economy is estimated to reach 8.8% in 2022, more than double the corresponding French figure (3.9%) and almost a third more than the German one (6.8%) ”.
The risk, observes the Confindustria Study Center, is that "Italy's cost competitiveness gap from the main European partners" will increase. Furthermore, the crisis would affect all the main sectors of the economy: from the primary sector to industry and services.
However, we must not forget that "even before the recent inflation dynamics on the international raw material markets, energy costs were higher for Italian companies than for European competitors".
In fact, "already in 2021 the distance in the incidence of energy costs between Italy and Germany had exceeded 1 percentage point, and France by 2.6 points".
In 2022, "the gap is estimated to reach +2.1 pp compared to Germany and +4.9 pp compared to France".
ITALY VS FRANCE
In particular, we read in the study, the distance between Italy and France would be very marked in manufacturing, even if the loss of competitiveness "would not be marginal even compared to Germany".
"By 2022 – experts report – it is estimated that the incidence of energy costs could reach 8.0% of production costs for the Italian industry (from 4.0% in the pre-crisis period), compared to 7.2% for the German industry (from 4.0%) and 4.8% for the French industry (from 3.9%) ”.
An increase that in the bill materializes in about 2.3 – 2.6 billion more.
But the greater impact of the energy crisis on Italian companies compared to French ones is not limited to the manufacturing sector, but is generalized to all sub-sectors.
ITALY VS GERMANY
If we compare Italy to Germany, however, the picture appears more varied. For example, the study explains, among the energy-intensive sectors, "the damage is greater in Italy especially in the production of wood, non-metallic minerals and chemicals, while for paper and above all metallurgy, which is the most affected Italian sector in absolute terms (+12 pp in the incidence of energy costs compared to the pre-crisis), the impact is estimated to be even greater in Germany ”.
COMPARISON OF CAROBOLLETTE
Overall, therefore, despite the increase in the prices of raw materials having a substantial impact on energy costs in all sectors and for all countries, the Italian system emerges as the most affected.
This, say the Confindustria Study Center, translates for Italy "into an estimated growth of the energy bill between 5.7 and 6.8 billion on a monthly basis".
"For Germany – reads the research – the increase in energy costs is estimated between 7.7 and 8.0 billion per month for the total economy […] while for France the estimates are between 1.7 and 1, 8 billion monthly (20.2 – 21.8 per year) for the total economy ".
WHY ALL THIS DIFFERENCE WITH FRANCE AND GERMANY?
As the study reiterates, our dependence (much higher than in France and Germany) on the use of natural gas, not only as a source of electricity production but also as a direct input into production processes, is the main reason for the greater impact of the energy crisis on production costs.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/crisi-energetica-perche-italia-rischia-di-piu/ on Wed, 15 Jun 2022 13:20:45 +0000.