Enough with the communication to Casalino and Ricciardi
Unsolicited advice to the Draghi government on communication matters. Gianfranco Polillo's comment
Mario Draghi's style has been seen from the very beginning. Tight deadlines. Communication reduced to the essential. British reserve. The armor of the central banker that remains such, even if called upon to perform different functions. An attitude which, given the provisions of Article 95 of the Constitution, cannot fail to influence all government activity. In fact, it is difficult to believe that the general direction referred to in that article cannot fail to also concern communication, which is an essential feature of the relationship between the executive and Parliament, first of all. But with an immediate impact on public opinion itself.
It can be deduced, therefore, that we will no longer see Rocco Casalino's wonders. Those indecent demonstrations in front of the Chamber of Deputies: "Bye bye annuities". Or at the parties, on the balcony of Palazzo Chigi, which praised the end of poverty, due to an out-of-control budget deficit. If so, but it is still too early to know, we can only rejoice. In the meantime, however, it is good that especially the technicians, who work for the government, understand that the practices, which were typical of the Conte government, no longer have the same right of citizenship. Especially when dealing with sensitive issues, such as those related to pandemic management.
Personally, for example, we were surprised to hear the words of Walter Ricciardi in the transmission of Fazio, on Rai Tre. His anticipation about the proposal for a generalized lockdown, which he would have submitted to Roberto Speranza, minister of health, of which he is a consultant. Not because we don't think it's right: it's not up to us to judge. But because certain proposals, due to the impact they may have on public opinion, should be confidential when the investigation phase is still underway. To then be communicated when the political decision maker, who in this case is not the only Minister of Health, has shared them. Above all he decided.
That voice from the escaped sen, as is well known, had led to severe reprimands, both by Matteo Salvini and by Vittorio Sgarbi. We would have spared those anger if, in fact, Walter Ricciardi had treasured the art of self restraint, all the more so in such a questionable field, such as that of forecasts. Of course it is not up to us to discuss the characteristics of the virus imported from England, South Africa or Brazil. Whether it is more or less contagious. Whether its viral load is more dangerous. Whether more or less refractory to vaccine comparisons available. Nobody can deny, as in all these cases, the levels of indeterminacy, at the moment, are maximum. Therefore, they require probabilistic evaluations, which only those who have the responsibility of government can, indeed must, attempt.
So let's limit ourselves to thinking about the objective data that are available to us. Which are those provided, in prospective terms, by the Civil Protection. And the stochastic ones of Johns Hopkins University, which, however, allow for an international comparison. In it, Italy still occupies the top positions. It is in third place, in terms of the number of deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants (154.48), after Great Britain and the Czech Republic. The same ranking for the lethality index (3.4 per cent of the infected) after Mexico and Peru.
However, these are data that must be interpreted. The current lethality index appears to have improved slightly. Some time ago it was 3.5 percent. Today, as mentioned, there is a very slight decrease of 0.1 percent. Obviously there is no toast, but still better than nothing. The trend analysis is more significant. The most impressive thing is the difference between the intensity of the second wave compared to the first. Since the beginning of August, the progression of the infections has been geometric. From just over 12 thousand cases, the maximum point was reached towards the end of November with 800 thousand positives. In the first wave, 110 thousand infections were not exceeded.
The number of dead almost doubled. Passed from just over 35 thousand to almost 60 thousand. A number, however, which must be related to the greater number of infections. In this case, obviously, the lethality index was much more reassuring. During the first wave, the cumulative had reached double digits. In the second, however, it stabilized at around an average of 3.5 per cent, compared to the total of cases. Which would suggest, not taking into account any variants, a greater contagiousness of the virus, but a lower lethality.
Finally the latest data. The peak of the infection seems to have occurred on November 22, when the cases were almost 806 thousand. Since then a gradual decline. Yesterday the number of infected was less than 403 thousand cases. With a net reduction of 50 percent. Reasons for optimism? If it were not the qualitative news, about the changes, presumed or real, of the virus relaunched by the exponents of the Technical Scientific Committee. Which, however, do not have the same certainty as the numbers we have just mentioned. So be careful, before uttering a word: the enemy, indeed the virus, listens to you.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/basta-con-la-comunicazione-alla-casalino-e-ricciardi/ on Mon, 15 Feb 2021 14:47:30 +0000.