GDP, here are data and comparisons between Italy, Germany, France and Spain
Italy and Spain are at the top in Europe for economic growth in the second quarter. Numbers, comparisons and scenarios based on GDP data in the second quarter of the year
Italy (and Spain) are at the top in Europe for economic growth in the second quarter. However, inflation also runs with the prices of the shopping cart returning to the levels of 1984. In the second quarter of 2022 the Italian economy recorded a growth of 1% in economic terms and of 4.6% in trend terms. Only Spain did better than us (+ 6.3% on the year). Zero growth in Germany in the second quarter (+1.4 the trend), and + 0.5% the quarterly increase in France.
This is the conjunctural summary of the major European economies drawn up by today's Sole 24 Ore based on data on Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter of the year. Let's see the details country by country.
HOW WELL IS GDP IN ITALY
The Italian gross domestic product, despite the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, according to the preliminary reading of Istat , in the period April-June marked a 1% economic rise and an increase of 4.6% on an annual basis, against estimates of the consensus of economists equal, respectively, to + 0.3% and + 3.7%. It should be noted that the second quarter had one working day less than both the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2021.
"The expansionary phase of the GDP continues for the sixth consecutive quarter, accelerating compared to the first quarter of the year, when growth was slightly positive", underlined Istat, recalling that in the first three months of the year the economy Italy had recorded increases of 0.1% in the short term and 6.2% per annum. A positive contribution to growth came from the national component, while the net foreign component generated a negative contribution, explained the Institute of Statistics, indicating "the provisional nature of this estimate, which reflects a decline in agriculture on the production side and growth in both industry and services ”.
The change acquired for 2022 is equal to + 3.4%. This week the IMF estimated that, thanks to the recovery of tourism and industrial activity, the growth of Italy this year will be 3%, recalled Milano Finanza : "But already in 2023 there will be a" significant slowdown "linked to partly due to high energy prices. In this context it is necessary to continue with the reforms, warned the International Monetary Fund, noting the "increased political uncertainty" ahead of the elections on September 25 and hoping that the path of reforms will not be abandoned. The fears of economists focus on the second half of the year amidst the energy crisis, political instability and monetary tightening of the ECB. Bank of Italy believes that Italian growth should reach 3.2% this year, but has warned that it will be less than 1% in the event of a Russian gas stop ”.
HOW IS GDP NOT GOING IN GERMANY
How is GDP in Germany? In the period from March to June, GDP did not change compared to the previous quarter (0.0%). This is what the General Statistical Office Destatis indicated during the week, which however revised upwards the estimates for the first quarter from +0.2 to +0.8 per cent. The consumption of households and the public administration, in particular, contributed to supporting the economy in the period from April to June, while the trade balance slowed it down. "The difficult conditions of the global economy, including the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions to supply chains and the war in Ukraine, are clearly reflected in the short-term economic trend," said Destatis, as stressed by Il Sole 24. Hours .
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE GDP OF FRANCE
The French GDP is growing in the 2nd quarter of 2022, doing better than forecasts. According to the preliminary reading released by the French National Statistical Institute (INSEE) , GDP should have registered an increase of 0.5% in the three months to June after -0.2% in the 1st quarter. The figure is higher than analysts' estimates, which indicated a + 0.2%.
THE TREND OF GDP IN SPAIN
Spain's GDP grew by 1.1% in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. This was indicated by the National Statistics Institute Ine. This is a much higher result than expected: in the first quarter the cyclical variation was 0.2 per cent. Compared to the same period in 2021, GDP grew by 6.3 percent.
THE SCENARIO FOR THE EUROZONE
The data released yesterday by Eurostat show that between April and June the GDP of the euro area increased by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter and by 4% compared to the same period last year: therefore, expectations were largely exceeded, which they indicated a progress of 0.2% on a quarterly basis and 3.4% on an annual basis.
"The acceleration of economic growth is mainly due to the post-lockdown reopening effects and masks the underlying weakness, due to high inflation and production problems," said Ing economist Bert Colijn, who predicts "a slight recession starting from the second half of the year ». The IMF outlook updated on Tuesday indicates an expansion of 2.6% for the Eurozone in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023, when the effects of the war will really be felt, Il Sole 24 Ore wrote.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/pil-ecco-dati-e-confronti-di-italia-germania-francia-e-spagna/ on Sat, 30 Jul 2022 07:55:56 +0000.