Goals and challenges of Meloni’s mission in India and the United Arab Emirates
Here are objectives and economic dossiers at the center of the mission of the Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, in India and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis of Francesco Galietti, expert analyst of strategic scenarios
The Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, is about to embark on a flight that will take her to the capitals of the United Arab Emirates and India. A complex journey where he will find himself interacting with actors and scenarios that see his government trying to carve out a leading role.
To understand something more, Start Magazine asked Francesco Galietti, analyst expert in strategic scenarios and founder of Policy Sonar, whose analysis focuses on the role of our country in contexts such as the enlarged Mediterranean and the Indo-Pacific.
Giorgia Meloni is about to visit the United Arab Emirates and India in what clearly appears to be one of the most ambitious trips on her agenda. It's right? And why?
Giorgia Meloni will travel the old caravan route of the Venetian merchants; in the jargon of analysts it is the Indo-Arab-Mediterranean bridge, a route steeped in history. Naturally, the itinerary is also dictated by contingencies, by the international agenda of top leaders, by major conferences, in this specific case the Raisina Dialogue in which the prime minister was invited to participate as a guest of honour.
There has been friction in the past with both the Emirates and India. Is it the right opportunity to overcome them or is the road long?
Those facts are now a thing of the past. There has been discontinuity at the level of political majorities, and relations are now more relaxed. The Meloni government is integrated into a system of alliances that embraces the Gulf, Egypt, Greece, Israel and there are numerous indications of his attention to this field of forces. In this regard, I recall that the premier at the last edition of the Cop in Egypt was very dynamic: even if she had been in her role as Prime Minister for a few days, she faced a series of close meetings there including the bilateral one with the Egyptian president al-Sisi; and I recall that there is a strong presence of ENI in Egypt.
How are relations with Israel?
Relations with Israel are also excellent: in this case even Meloni can count on the past, represented by the historic journey of Gianfranco Fini. Then there is Greece, with which at the moment there is a very important under-the-table game, which is that of naval orders: the Greek navy wants corvettes, France and Italy are competing to win the orders and there is a open courtship of governments in this direction. It is not excluded that Meloni will call the Greek premier Mitsotakis directly to support Fincantieri's offer. Ultimately Meloni has his own vision that looks to the enlarged Mediterranean.
In addition to the enlarged Mediterranean, attention can also be glimpsed towards the Indo-Pacific theatre, confirmed by the specific document that Meloni will sign with the Indian premier Narendra Modi.
Meloni is very attentive to what they do in those parts: one of the very first heads of government she met was the Japanese Fumio Kishida, with whom she will have to relay since Kishida holds the rotating presidency of the G7 and next year it's up to Italy. There is therefore a strong harmony, confirmed by the agreements made in the military sphere on the sixth generation Tempest fighter , agreements that extend to Sunak's Great Britain. The fact of playing on the same field as the British and Japanese means in some way placing oneself close to the network of alliances in the Indo-Pacific, that is, that club of democratic powers which are at the forefront of countering Chinese assertiveness in that quadrant.
A dial that is very hot, given the widespread fears of possible moves by China. What role can Italy carve out in this delicate chessboard?
What we are seeing demonstrates that it is not only America that acts as the glue between the Atlantic and the Pacific. The two blocks talk directly to each other; the obvious case is precisely that of Italy which interfaces directly with Japan. Now that this dynamic has been created, Italy is called to integrate and it is doing so with concrete steps and not with mere declarations of practice. But here there is another aspect that is important to me and should be highlighted.
Which?
I am referring to the need to find the right tones in the relationship with China. Personally, I was very perplexed to witness the satrap of Chinese foreign policy Wang Yi travel to Europe. I remember that Wang stopped in Rome, where he was received by Mattarella and Tajani. It's not so much the Mattarella-Tajani format that amazes me; what I find regrettable is their appeal to the Chinese to work for peace mediation in Ukraine. We have thus placed ourselves outside the core of Western alliances, with the Americans not only strongly rejecting the Chinese initiative in the peace plan, but also saying that China is an active part of the conflict as it supplies Russia with critical technologies. So an Italy that legitimizes China is clearly out of phase. And this just as the Meloni government is making great strides to integrate Italy into the Indo-Pacific. There is therefore a semantic register that needs to be straightened out. I will say more.
Please.
I am referring to the infamous Silk Roads agreement of 2019, the most scandalous part of which is precisely the symbolism. Italy, i.e. a G7 country, which legitimizes China as a power with imperial status, with all a very eloquent Roman choreography. I think we'll opt out of the deal. Yet if we continue to legitimize China's status as a superpower with imperial rank no less than America's then the patch is worse than the hole. If one insists on keeping relations with China above a certain threshold of visibility, one perseveres in the error.
Are we to conclude that Mattarella does not have good diplomatic advisers?
I think Mattarella reasons with his head. He comes from a left-wing Catholic tradition that has always had a strong sympathy for Ostpolitik, I am thinking of Vittorino Colombo and many others of that Christian Democrat world. I also believe that he refers to the same swaying attitude of the Vatican. I think we shouldn't be too reverential to say that Mattarella was wrong about China and continues to be wrong.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/fini-e-sfide-della-missione-di-meloni-in-india-ed-emirati-arabi-uniti/ on Wed, 01 Mar 2023 07:38:24 +0000.