Here are the dividends that will detach Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit and more
The first reports from investment banks and analysts on the dividends that the banks will distribute after the green light that will come from the ECB. Emanuela Rossi's article
Decisive month for the detachment of coupons in favor of the shareholders of European banks. The announcement by the Bank of England is expected on Tuesday 13th, while on Friday 23rd the European Central Bank will announce whether the block on the distribution of dividends , born in the aftermath of the outbreak of the health emergency, can be lifted to keep higher the capital ratios, which at that point should take place in the third and fourth quarters of 2021.
WHAT HAD HAPPENED ON THE FACE OF DIVIDENDS
Over the past year, Frankfurt has spoken several times on the issue. In July 2020, the European Central Bank had recommended to EU credit institutions not to detach coupons and not to purchase treasury shares until January 2021 due to the economic crisis caused by the pandemic. In December, another suspension or in any case a limitation within certain thresholds arrived until 30 September 2021 also with regard to buy-back plans. In March Andrea Enria, chairman of the Eurotower Supervisory Board and former EBA number one, made it clear that – in the absence of particularly negative developments in the situation – dividend payments could be resumed. Just last month, during a virtual Afme-Omfif conversation on financial integration, he announced that on 23 July the ECB will decide whether or not to remove the dividend ban after 30 September 2021.
WHAT THE ANALYSTS SAY
Milanofinanza.it reports that Citi experts expect a total yield from coupons and share repurchases for European banks in 2021-2022 of 6% and 8% per annum with higher returns at Nordea, Bbva and Intesa Sanpaolo. Furthermore, the payout ratio of the credit institutions of the Old Continent should reach 55-60% which would lead to a distribution of 64 billion in dividends in 2021 and 52 billion in 2022.
WHAT INTESA SANPAOLO AND UNICREDIT WILL DO ON DIVIDENDS
In the background, the results of the EBA stress test on a sample of 50 banks that must be presented on 30 July next. According to Citi analysts, "the macro assumptions seem more pessimistic than the previous stress test, but perhaps they appear milder than expected" and the greatest decline in the capital strength ratio is expected – as emerged from the latest adverse scenario of the stress test – for Deutsche Bank and Danske Bank. If the 2018 stress test were applied to the capital solidity ratio, the highest results in Europe would be achieved by Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit and Abn.
FORECASTS ON THE BANK'S NEXT DIVIDENDS
Also the Americans of Citi believe that M&A could be used as an alternative to the remuneration of shareholders thanks to the excess capital of the banks since this is the preferred route by the supervisory authorities. Certainly, after 30 July there will be more in terms of asset quality and it is therefore possible that we will return to talk more insistently about mergers and acquisitions, perhaps especially from the parts of Montepaschi Hsbc France, Ing France, Bbva Usa and Hsbc Us.
THE EQUITA REPORT ON BANKS DIVIDENDS
According to Equita Sim analysts, the removal of the dividend ban should result in a respectable dividend yeld: over 6% for Intesa Sanpaolo, 6.2% for Unicredit, 11.3% for Banca Farmafactoring, 9 , 1% for Banca Mediolanum, 7.5% for Banca Generali. For other analysts, however, Mediobanca should pay the 6% dividend yield in November, Banca Ifis 1.10 euro (for a return of 8%) and Banca Sistema 0.173 euro per share, at current prices equivalent to 8%.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/ecco-i-dividendi-che-staccheranno-intesa-sanpaolo-unicredit-e-non-solo/ on Mon, 05 Jul 2021 05:19:14 +0000.