Here are the (expected and unexpected) effects of the electric boom. Aie report
Fossil fuel-based electricity generation is set to cover 45% of the additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022, with nuclear power accounting for the rest. Consequently, CO2 emissions from the electricity sector are expected to increase according to AIE
Renewables are expanding rapidly, but not enough to meet the strong rebound in global electricity demand this year, resulting in a sharp increase in the use of coal that is likely to push carbon emissions from the electricity sector to levels. record next year. This is what a new report from the International Energy Agency shows .
MOST OF THE INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND SHOULD COME FROM THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
After a drop of around 1% in 2020 due to the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, global electricity demand is set to grow by nearly 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 – driven by the global economic recovery – according to the latest edition of the IEA's semi-annual report on the electricity market. Most of the increase in electricity demand is expected to come from the Asia-Pacific region, mainly from China and India.
RENEWABLES ABLE TO MEET ONLY HALF OF THE 2021-2022 DEMAND INCREASE
Based on current policies and economic trends, electricity generation from renewable sources – including hydropower, wind and solar PV – is on track to grow strongly around the world over the next two years – by 8% in 2021 and more than 6% in 2022. But even with this strong growth, renewables will only be able to meet about half of the projected increase in global electricity demand in those two years, according to the new IEA report.
CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR INCREASE BY 3.5% IN 2021
Fossil fuel-based electricity generation is set to cover 45% of the additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022, with nuclear power accounting for the rest. As a result, CO2 emissions from the electricity sector – which fell in both 2019 and 2020 – are projected to rise by 3.5% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022, which would lead them to an all-time high.
Growth in renewables outpaced demand growth in just two years: 2019 and 2020. But in those cases, it was largely due to exceptionally slow or declining demand.
SEDAMORI (AIE): WE NEED TO INCREASE INVESTMENTS IN CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
"Renewable energy is growing impressively in many parts of the world, but it is not yet where it needs to be to put us on a path to achieving net zero emissions by mid-century," said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director for energy markets and security -. As the economy recovers after the pandemic, we have seen a surge in electricity generation from fossil fuels. To move on to a sustainable trajectory, we need to massively increase investments in clean energy technologies – especially renewables and energy efficiency ”.
On the path set out in the IEA's recent roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, nearly three-quarters of global emissions reductions between 2020 and 2025 occur in the electricity sector. To achieve this decline, the path requires coal-fired electricity production to decline by more than 6% per year.
PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY FROM COAL INTENDED TO INCREASE. GAS GENERATION, WHICH DECREASED BY 2% IN 2020, SHOULD INCREASE BY 1% IN 2021 AND BY ALMOST 2% IN 2022.
However, coal-fired electricity production is set to increase by nearly 5% this year and a further 3% in 2022, potentially reaching an all-time high, according to the Electricity Market Report. Gas generation, which fell by 2% in 2020, is expected to increase by 1% in 2021 and by nearly 2% in 2022. Gas growth is lower than that of coal because it plays less of a role in rapidly growing economies. growth of the Asia-Pacific region and faces competition from renewable energy in Europe and North America.
Since the last IEA report on the electricity market in December 2020, extreme cold, heat and drought have caused severe tensions and disruptions in electrical systems around the world – in countries ranging from the United States and Mexico to China and Iraq. In response, the IEA is developing a scale of electricity safety events to track and rank major power outages, based on the duration of the outage and the number of customers affected. The Texas energy crisis in February, where millions of customers went out of power for up to four days due to freezing weather, was given the most severe rating on this scale.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/tutti-gli-effetti-previsti-e-imprevisti-del-boom-elettrico-report-aie/ on Sun, 22 Aug 2021 06:24:47 +0000.