Here are the new (possible) Italian military aid to Ukraine
Italian military aid to Ukraine, all the indiscretions on the content of a 6th decree being prepared by the Meloni government. An in-depth study by Giovanni Martinelli
The issue of Italian military aid to Ukraine has now taken on "karst" characteristics. In the sense that for a long time it disappears from the political debate and from the attention of the media as well as from that of public opinion, only to resurface instead on the surface, sometimes even suddenly. A condition that, with all evidence, occurs mainly due to the decision of the previous Draghi Government (we will see if confirmed by the Meloni one who has just taken office) to place the secret on the list of materials sent to Kiev in the context of each of the 5 approved decrees. Lists which, as is well known, have been shown only to Copasir (Parliamentary Committee for the security of the Republic).
WHAT ITALY WILL SEND TO UKRAINE
However, thanks to the growing diffusion on social networks of “suspicious” movements of military vehicles belonging to the Italian Army, on Sunday press rumors appeared again on the just mentioned issue of our country's military supplies in favor of Ukraine. All rumors to be confirmed, of course; but which, for a sort of "duty to report", it seems interesting to deal with more detail.
With an even more interesting fact; some of these would in fact be considered as acquired, as they have already been decided by the past Executive (and therefore, only to be delivered to Kiev; net of the necessary technical times). Still others would still be in the process of being defined by the new one.
ITALY'S QUALITY LEAP FOR UKRAINE
Proceeding in order, as regards those in the home straight, in fact there would be (the conditional is a must) a significant leap in quality by Italy in terms of aid provided. Until now, news had been leaked about the dispatch of weapons such as light and heavy machine guns, anti-tank rocket launchers, perhaps even anti-tank missiles, shoulder-mounted anti-aircraft missiles, heavy mortars and ammunition.
This concerns a very first phase; while in a second there was already a sort of step forward. This time, in fact, 155 mm FH-70 howitzers and Lince VTLM (Light Multirole Tactical Vehicle) were also supplied. All material, however, taken from Italian warehouses, often already withdrawn from service; that is, even modern but not very modern.
WHAT WILL NEW FOR UKRAINE FROM ITALY
Now, however, the picture would change because, again according to these rumors, the delivery of 2 M270 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) multiple rocket launchers and 6 155 mm PzH 2000 self-propelled guns would now be near. The differences would therefore be considerable; both because it would be even more modern means, and because they would be drawn directly from the units of the Italian Army.
Alongside these, it is also assumed that an unspecified number (between 20 and 30) of other self-propelled artillery will be sent; this time it would be precisely those M109Ls, always equipped with a 155 mm piece, spotted in motion on some Italian roads. In this sense, the most accredited hypothesis is that at this moment they are being transferred to the Army Heavy Maintenance Pole in Piacenza, where they could be reconditioned (being vehicles withdrawn from service several years ago) to be then sent, in fact, to Ukraine.
THE VEHICLES FOR THE INFANTRY
Where a similar operation would also concern the M113 infantry vehicles (or their improved versions such as VCC-1 and VCC-2); also in this case, after an appropriate reconditioning, the hypothesis is that they can be supplied, once again in an unspecified number, to the forces of Kiev.
For the sake of completeness of information, however, some elements must also be added. Although the possible supply of M270 MLRS and PzH 2000 certainly cannot be excluded in principle, it is equally true that the number of vehicles supplied to our Army is not in itself particularly substantial. A further decrease could therefore create problems and, therefore, should be accompanied by adequate compensation measures.
As for M109L and M113 (or similar), here is the big unknown of the conditions of the vehicles. Our country certainly does not have a tradition of good conservation than what it no longer has in use by our Armed Forces and which could have some form of future use instead. Therefore, putting these means back together might not be so simple; although still possible.
THE SIXTH DECREE ON SITE
If, therefore, this is the chapter dedicated to what has been done up to now with the first 5 decrees, as previously anticipated, rumors are already circulating on the content of a 6th decree, being prepared by the Government that has just taken office.
And if what has been described up to now has a strong imprint in the context of the so-called "long range fires" (ie long range artillery and rocket launchers, absolutely decisive in the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian forces, now underway for over 2 months), now attention it would move to that of air defense. Inevitably, one would say; given that at the moment Ukraine is showing all its (well-known) vulnerabilities, to the point of having become the subject of specific requests by President Zelensky.
ALLIANCE ITALY AND FRANCE PRO UKRAINE?
Basically, what is assumed is an agreement with France in order to send a SAMP / T battery ; that is, the 2 countries would each supply a part of the battery itself in order to set up a complete one to be delivered to Ukraine. Also in this case, doubts emerge about the advisability of this move, given the already low numbers for both countries.
But the new effort would not end here, in the sense that the hypothesis in question would also include the sending of 3 batteries of Spada missiles based on the Aspide missile. While the SAMP / T is supplied to the Army, the Swords are instead supplied to the Air Force; whereas those possibly involved would be some of those already withdrawn from the service and placed in storage.
Also for this further step, the hypothesis is that of some form of agreement / collaboration with another country. More precisely, Spain, which is already training Ukrainian military on its own territory to use its own Aspide 2000 battery (very similar to those supplied to the Italian Armed Forces), as it is also expected to be sold to Ukraine.
At the end of what has been (essentially) a review of conditionals and hypotheses, the bitterness remains in seeing confirmed the principle according to which the imposed secrecy remains a factor of opacity without particular justifications (if not of a nature so to speak " politics"); especially if the “Italian case” is then compared with that of all the other countries that are trying to support Kiev militarily. Although in different forms, they guarantee a very different transparency in terms of the information provided.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/tutti-i-nuovi-possibili-aiuti-militari-italiani-ucraina/ on Mon, 31 Oct 2022 08:48:12 +0000.