Here are the next mass migrations. Report Economist
In developed countries, the foreign-born population is growing faster than at any time in history. Has a new era of mass migration begun? The Economist article
Last year 1.2 million people moved to Britain, almost certainly the highest number ever. Net immigration (i.e. immigrants minus emigrants) to Australia is currently double the pre-COVID-19 pandemic rate. Spain recently hit an all-time high. Spain's equivalent figure recently hit an all-time high. Nearly 1.4 million people are expected to move to America this year, a third more than before the pandemic. In 2022, net migration to Canada was more than double the previous record. In Germany it was even higher than during the “migration crisis” of 2015. The rich world as a whole is in the midst of an unprecedented migration boom. The foreign-born population is growing faster than at any other time in history – writes The Economist .
THE CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
What does this mean for the global economy? Not long ago it seemed that many wealthy countries had turned decisively against mass immigration. In 2016 the British voted for Brexit and then the Americans for Donald Trump: both political projects had a strong anti-migrant streak. In the global wave of populism that followed, politicians from Australia to Hungary vowed to crack down on immigration. Then they closed the borders. Migration has stopped, or even reversed, because people have decided to go home. Between 2019 and 2021 the population of Kuwait and Singapore, countries that usually welcome many migrants, decreased by 4%. In 2021, the number of emigrants from Australia will exceed the number of immigrants in the country for the first time since the 1940s.
In some places, the wave of migration has restored a sense of normality. Singapore's foreign workforce has recently returned to pre-pandemic levels. In other places, however, the situation has changed dramatically. Consider Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada's second smallest province by population. Long home to people of Irish Catholic descent, net migration to the province is more than 20 times the pre-pandemic norm. St John's, the once fairly homogeneous capital, looks more and more like Toronto. Heart's Delight, a small rural village, now has a Ukrainian bakery, Borsch. The provincial government is setting up an office in Bangalore to help recruit nurses.
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Newcomers to Newfoundland are a microcosm of those arriving elsewhere in the rich world. Many hundreds of Ukrainians have arrived on the island, a small fraction of the millions who left the country after Russia's invasion. Indians and Nigerians also appear to have moved in large numbers. Many speak English. And many already have family ties in wealthier countries, notably Britain and Canada.
THE CAUSES OF THE WHEELIE
Part of the surge in migration is because people are catching up on lost time. Many migrants were granted visas in 2020 or 2021, but only embarked on the journey after restrictions were eased. However, the foreign population of the rich world, which exceeds 100 million, is now above its pre-crisis trend, suggesting that something else is afoot.
The nature of the post-pandemic economy is a big part of the explanation. Unemployment in the rich world, at 4.8%, hasn't been this low in decades. The bosses are desperate for staff, with vacancies near an all-time high. People from abroad therefore have a good reason to travel. Currency movements can be another factor. One British pound buys more than 100 Indian rupees, up from 90 in 2019. The average emerging-market currency has depreciated by about 4% against the dollar since the start of 2021. This allows migrants to send more money home than ever before.
HERE ARE THE COUNTRIES WANT TO ATTRACT (QUALIFIED) MIGRANTS
Many governments are also trying to attract more people. Canada has an explicit goal of welcoming 1.5 million new residents in 2023-25. Germany and India recently signed an agreement to allow more Indians to work and study in Germany. Australia is increasing the period some students can work after graduation from two to four years. Britain has welcomed Hong Kong citizens fleeing Chinese oppression: well over 100,000 have arrived. Many countries have facilitated the entry of Ukrainians. Even countries hitherto hostile to migration, such as Japan and South Korea, are looking more favorably on foreigners in an effort to counter the impact of population ageing.
Economies that welcome many migrants tend to benefit in the long run. Just think of America. Foreigners bring with them new ideas. According to a recent study by Pierre Azoulay of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and colleagues, immigrants in America are about 80 percent more likely to start businesses than natives. Research suggests that immigrants also help build trade and investment links between their country of origin and the host country. A flood of young workers also helps generate more tax revenue.
THE BENEFITS
Some economists also hope that the wave of migration will have more immediate benefits. “High immigration is helping the Fed try to cool the job market and slow inflation,” says Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management, an asset manager, in a common view. These arguments may be a little too optimistic. Having more people increases the supply of labor and, other things being equal, reduces wage growth. But the effect is rather limited. It is not certain that the countries that receive the most immigrants have the slackest labor markets. In Canada, for example, wages continue to grow about 5% year-on-year.
Migrants also increase the demand for goods and services, which can drive up inflation. In Britain, new arrivals appear to be driving up rents in London, where the supply of housing was already limited. A similar effect is seen in Australia. According to estimates released by Goldman Sachs bank, the current annualized net migration rate of 500,000 people is driving up rents by about 5%. Higher rents are fueling the rise in the general consumer price index. Immigrant demand may also explain why, despite rising mortgage rates, house prices in many rich countries have not fallen much.
Over the next year, migration may decrease somewhat. Post-pandemic “recovery” will end; labor markets in rich countries are slowly easing. However, there is reason to believe that historically high levels of new arrivals will remain high for some time. A more welcoming government policy is one factor. Most importantly, today's migration begets tomorrow's, as newcomers bring children and partners with them. Before long, the rich world's anti-immigrant turn of the late 2010s will look like an aberration.
(Excerpt from the press release of eprcommunication)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/nuove-migrazioni-massa-economist/ on Sat, 03 Jun 2023 05:47:59 +0000.