Here are the plans of Saudi Arabia and Israel to revolutionize the Middle East
Netanyahu in Israel and MbS in Saudi Arabia, supervised by Biden's US, are negotiating a major deal that could lead to the creation of a new Middle East. Here are the details and ambitions
Write down these names, because they could go down in history. Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden are conducting no longer so secret negotiations in view of a grand pact that outlines a new Middle East in which political dialogue and economic cooperation will silence the ancients you hate. But will it really be like this? Here's what the Economist writes in an in-depth analysis published in the latest issue.
Agreement in the making?
The British weekly writes that the direct and indirect signs of an agreement in the making between two former enemy countries such as Saudi Arabia and Israel are multiplying.
In a rare television interview aired on September 20, Saudi Prime Minister and heir to the throne Mohammed bin Salman (Mbs) acknowledged that an agreement is upon us: “every day we get closer. It seems that for the first time it is true, serious,” he declared.
Two days later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that the two nations were close to an agreement which, he stressed, would represent “a quantum leap” towards a new Middle East.
Approach march
The approach march has been underway for some time. Although no one has confirmed it, it seems that Mbs and Netanyahu have met at least once. What brings the two countries closer is, among other things, the common enemy Iranian, a strategic threat for both.
It is also for this reason that in 2020, when the first Abraham Accords were signed which led to the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab countries, many thought that the moment of thaw between Jerusalem and Riyadh had arrived.
This was not the case, even if today the incentives for an agreement are even greater. With it the Saudis would obtain what they most desire, that is to forge a new strategic alliance with those US accused of disengaging from the region and tending towards appeasement with the ayatollahs.
The specter of Iranian nuclear power thus pushes the kingdom to seek a real formalized and sealed defense pact with America.
Saudi nuclear power?
There are already rumors that Washington, in view of this pact, wants to accommodate the Saudis by authorizing the latter to develop a nuclear program even if, as the Wall Street Journal revealed, with plants managed by the Americans on Saudi soil.
Although the program would be for civilian purposes only, the unwritten stipulation is that if Iran acquires the bomb, the Kingdom will do the same. As Mbs admitted in the aforementioned television interview, "if they get one, we have to have one".
Effects on the 2024 US election campaign
A new security architecture in the Middle East in which Saudi Arabia and Israel collaborate as partners and the US acts as an external guarantor would be an extraordinary result for Joe Biden to flaunt in the election season that has now opened in America.
And it would be quite a paradox for a president who in the previous election campaign had promised to treat the Saudis "like the pariahs they are" due to the brutal murder of the journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi apparently ordered by Mbs.
But the outcry over that bloody event has now given way to a Realpolitik which indicates as a goal within reach a great pact with which the USA, by shackling the countries of the Middle East to itself for decades to come, would achieve three results: preventing one of the region that has fallen into China's sphere of influence, calm energy markets and exercise maximum deterrence against Iran.
And the Palestinians?
But before shouting bingo, warns the Economist , some obstacles need to be considered. Despite being an absolute monarchy, Saudi Arabia also has to take into account a public opinion in which only 2% of young people say they are in favor of normalizing relations with Israel, compared to 75 and 73% respectively those of two countries that already recognize the Jewish state such as the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.
It is also for this reason that the Saudis have begun to insist on the old issue of the Palestinian question. In recent months, the magazine reports, some Palestinian officials have traveled to the Saudi capital on an almost weekly basis, signaling renewed Saudi interest in a cause that still makes Arab hearts beat.
However, in the television interview Mbs did not mention the 2002 Saudi peace plan which envisaged the establishment of a Palestinian state with all its corollaries, but only made vague references to the need to ensure "a good life" for the Palestinian people.
Netanyahu's internal constraint
Mbs' vagueness is explained, according to the Economist , by the internal constraints of Netanyahu, leader of a coalition that includes those religious parties of the Jewish settlers of the West Bank who are against any concessions to the Palestinians.
Palestinian President Abbas also seems to have understood that the Saudis will no longer push for the establishment of a Palestinian state as a precondition for recognizing Israel.
Given the extremism of the settlers and their powerful representatives of whom Netanyahu is effectively hostage, the only objective truly within reach is to stop any new settlement and gain greater autonomy for the West Bank.
The opportunity
But since even this modest progress risks destroying the majority on which the Netanyahu government rests, the juicy counterpart of a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia is looming which would convince the centrist parties that have so far refused to enter the executive to join Bibi.
A new Middle East
In short, the stars seem to be aligning and the prospect of a Middle Eastern renaissance that archives past hatreds to open the doors to a new season of dialogue and cooperation has never been as concrete as today.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/nuovo-medio-oriente-arabia-saudita-israele/ on Sat, 30 Sep 2023 05:13:52 +0000.