Here are the real reasons for the shocks in the government majority
Political and above all economic reasons (even if not very explicit) are at the basis of the tensions in the majority who support the Draghi government. Gianfranco Polillo's analysis
The political fibrillations of these days have their own why. Definitely more than one, if only the overall state of the country is considered. Upstream of everything, an electoral result that overturned the real balance of power between the various protagonists. Before that event there were only polls to testify that something was moving in the depths of Italian society. To which it could, however, be answered by questioning its representative capacity. But after the electoral verdict it was impossible to continue pretending nothing happened.
It is true that in many cases attempts have been made to gild the pill, playing with numbers and their contradictions, in relation to the game scheme considered. Sum of individual marks vs. the change in the management of the main municipalities. But the experience acquired in the evaluation of the electoral results teaches that, in the end, the pure and simple quantitative data cannot prevail over the political and power structures that the same elections are called to define. It is therefore possible to insist as much as you like on the fact that the votes in the center right were greater than those given in the center left. But this obvious observation does not shift the overall result one iota.
And the latter clearly shows the affirmation of the two historical forces of the Italian political spectrum: Brothers of Italy on the one hand, the Democratic Party on the other. The post-fascists, we must not be afraid of words, on one front the post-communists on the other. It will be said that this distinction is all too Manichean. But, at least, it has the advantage of clarity. Among other things, it demonstrates the burning defeat of all those forces (read Forza Italia, Lega and 5 stelle) which, since the end of the 90s, had tried, in some way, to give Italy a different perspective. And that shortly, with the next political elections, they will be called to a sort of universal judgment.
Under normal conditions, their choice would have been different. Probably they would not have accepted to be part of a government of national unity, inevitably destined to transform itself into a sort of straitjacket. Mario Monti's experience, in the aftermath of 2011, was still there. He reminded them of how difficult it had been to combine the needs of rehabilitation of the country, the victim of a ferocious international crisis, with the safeguarding of its own political and programmatic profiles.
Well, with hindsight, it is easy to see how that distant crisis had very little to do with the dramatic conditions of the moment. Back then it was a simple financial crisis, induced by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers first, and by the collapse of sovereign debt, then. Today we are still fighting metaphorically with the Covid pandemic, the consequences of which are persistent, not only in terms of health but also financially (read inflation); and really with the conflict unleashed in Ukraine by Putin. Who had not been able to manage the consequences of that more distant crisis on the economy of his country.
Hence the need for Italian political forces to assume the traditional posture of "separated at home". We are together not out of love, but out of duty. We rely on Mario Draghi, who is doing the maximum possible (the criticisms of Il Fatto Quotidiano are completely ungenerous), but then we look for the normal escapades, to satisfy our ego. And prove to your followers that you are still bearers of ancient identity flags. Whether these are the tax cuts or the seaside resorts, for the League; the fake "universal peace" for Giuseppe Conte or the new rights (ius scholae or cannabis) for the Democratic Party.
But why also the Democratic Party, which also recorded a success in the past administrative session? In this case, two reasons seem to prevail. For the Dems, being second to the Brothers of Italy, with a difference of several points, is an unbearable condition. Destined, in some way, to affect one of the distinctive features of this political force. His militant anti-fascism which, for decades, has been a formidable glue, to the point of labeling as inadmissible those analyzes (for all Renzo De Felice) which also tried to historicize the Mussolini phenomenon. The second reason is to cut the grass under the feet of the 5-star grill component. Take advantage of that crisis, to increase your game bag, taking advantage of possible free votes.
The combination of these reasons therefore explains the Italian political malaise. Discomfort destined, unfortunately, to increase. In Via XX Settembre we have already begun to think about the next budget law. And from the first data it is clear how limited the room for maneuver is. On the external front, an international situation that fuels persistent inflation due to supply bottlenecks (especially energy and raw materials), which the central banks (Fed and ECB ) are trying to curb with traditional instruments. There aren't any resources available to meet the requests ("to put a lot of attention on the social" asks Enrico Letta right now). Failure to refinance the 110 is indicative. So the margins, not only economic-financial, but political, are destined to further narrow. A real vice that, in the end, will have a profound impact, as happened in 2013, on the future political framework. In which direction? It will be all to see.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/ecco-i-veri-motivi-degli-scossoni-nella-maggioranza-di-governo/ on Fri, 01 Jul 2022 09:47:29 +0000.