Here are the shocking effects of the Russian gas blockade on Italy. Word of Confindustria
Numbers, trends and scenarios (not only on Russian gas) from the latest joint report by the Confindustria study center
The blockade of Russian gas imports? "This shock would cause a strong shortage of gas volumes for industry and services and an additional increase in energy costs" and would have a "total impact on GDP in Italy, in the 2022-2023 horizon, estimated at almost -2% on average at 'year".
This is what we read in the economic report of the Confindustria study center .
In terms of gas volumes, the impact of a blockade, stresses the Confindustria study center, must be assessed in the situation that would be created month by month, not in terms of aggregate annual consumption.
The scenario is built on a series of assumptions: monthly consumption at 2021 values; zeroing of gas imports from Russia (29.1 bcm) and also from the Gries pass (2.2 bcm) from June 2022; various alternative sources of supply gradually available by next winter (for a total of 15.5 mm3), based on the various agreements and projects that Italy has already started. In this scenario, we read, “we estimate that the lack of supply, over the 12 months between April 2022 and March 2023, accounts for 18.4% of Italian consumption”.
The study center of the confederation of Italian industrialists indicates the effects of the stop on the volumes available to the system, first of all assuming a series of conditions: monthly consumption at the values of 2021, zeroing in June of supplies from Russia (29.1 billion cubic meters) and also from Passo Gries (2.2 billion cubic meters, through which the gas arriving from Northern Europe transits) and various alternative sources of supply available from next winter (15.5 billion cubic meters), based on agreements and projects started.
If this were the picture, the shortage of supply over 12 months (April 2022-March 2023) would be equal to 14 billion cubic meters (18.4% of Italian consumption). And it would not be all concentrated in the peak months (the winter ones) but also distributed in the preceding and following ones. Nor, points out the economic report prepared by the Confindustria study center, would the scenario improve with the government's decision to impose a tightening on the temperatures of the PA offices (excluding, however, private homes) since such a measure reduces in a limited way the annual consumption.
Not to mention that, on the overall availability of gas, the level of stocks would also affect which, this year, the Confindustria research center reminds us, are even lower than in 2022. With the result that, if we stop from Russia, the hypothesized scenario includes "the use of part of the strategic resource (3.8 billion cubic meters out of the 4.5 available) that exists precisely to face extreme situations".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/ecco-gli-effetti-choc-del-blocco-del-gas-russo-sullitalia-parola-di-confindustria/ on Sun, 29 May 2022 09:08:22 +0000.