Here is where Made in Italy will grow again. Sace report
From 2021, Italian exports will follow paths of rapid recovery and growth in some markets and will recover the ground lost in others in the dark year of the pandemic. Good satisfactions should come to our country from the Far East and not only in commercial relations with the Chinese giant . The Sace report “ Back to the future: anatomy of a post-academic recovery ”, examines the most promising eastern economies for our country.
South Korea: fighting the pandemic is the key to success
South Korea is one of the countries that has been able to better counter the effects of the pandemic. The small eastern state has become the third market for our products in the region following the collapse of Italian sales to Hong Kong (-25.6%). According to Sace analysts, Korean demand for Italian products will continue vigorously also in 2021, even exceeding the pre-crisis values thanks to an expected growth rate of 11.2%. The country benefits from the free trade agreement between the country and the EU in force for a decade. Consumer goods, which account for over 40% of our exports, will drive the restart. Italian fashion is highly appreciated in the country, so much so that textiles and clothing represent a fifth of our exports which should grow by 20.2%. Favorable prospects also for means of transport (+ 15.4%), which will continue to grow after the positive result of last year.
Japan: export growth of + 14%
In Japan, exports of Italian goods are expected to recover at full speed. Also in this case, to foster trade relations there is an Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU in force since 2019. In the next year, Italian exports to Japan should grow by 14.3%. The jump will be significant for consumer goods (+ 14.8%, especially textiles), followed by food and beverages (+ 12.1%), capital goods (+ 18.4%, especially mechanical engineering and means of transport ) and, to a relatively lesser extent, for intermediate goods, albeit with rubber and plastic at + 16.1%.
Vietnam: the attraction for Italian fashion
Italy is the second European supplier of Vietnam after Germany and also for 2021 the dynamics of exports are confirmed positive . The restart of the Vietnamese textile and clothing sector, whose foreign sales are worth over 15% of GDP, translate into export opportunities for our companies manufacturing machinery for textile and fashion uses (+ 22.8% in 2021 ). Even in Vietnam, as in China, the US and the EU, the state will do its part to ensure the country's restart by setting up a substantial public investment plan worth 119 billion dollars over four years. The program aims to develop infrastructure and improve connectivity with other economies in the region. Italian technology and infrastructure construction companies will be able to do their part.
Taiwan: good electrical appliances and instrumental mechanics
The island's economy was among the least impacted by the pandemic, thanks to effective management of the health system and the boom in foreign demand for electronic products, in which the country is highly specialized. In 2021, Italian exports to the country will rise + 7.5% . The Taiwanese economic and production context has created interesting opportunities for our electrical appliance companies (+ 41% in 2020 and + 6.1% in 2021). The export of means of transport (+ 16.7%) and of mechanical engineering (+ 9.7%) is also positive, which this year will completely recover the decline of the previous twelve months.
Malaysia: Italian exports focus on investment goods
The growth of Italian exports to Malaysia, estimated by Sace analysts at + 14.1% in 2021, will be the fluctuations in oil prices and the growth in demand for electronic products. However, it will be necessary to wait until 2022 for the complete recovery of the pre-crisis values. The risks of the Malaysian market derive from a resurgence of infections that already in late spring forced the government to impose new restrictions. Made in Italy will be able to count on the Malaysian demand for capital goods, in particular mechanical engineering (+ 19%) and electrical appliances (+ 12.6%), functional to the continuous development of advanced manufacturing in the country.
Thailand: waiting for the restart of tourism
The Thai economy, heavily dependent on the tourism sector (around 20% of GDP), has been severely damaged by the restrictions on free movement imposed by the pandemic. The Bangkok authorities expect to receive only 700,000 tourists in the country in 2021 (in 2019 they were over 49 million). This decline is also reflected in Italian exports which, despite the 8.8% growth forecast for this year, will only be able to recover pre-crisis levels in 2022 . Thailand too, the state will intervene to restore the fortunes of the economy. A public investment plan of 33 billion dollars is envisaged and will last 7 years, from 2020 to 2027. Our exports, which are linked to the trend of investment goods (+ 7.6% in 2021), will benefit also of an increase in demand deriving from substantial public intervention.
India slow and difficult recovery
The resumption of the Covid19 pandemic in India in April and May slowed the economic recovery. The slowdown has also had repercussions on Italian exports to the country which, although expected to grow by 11% in 2021 after -23.9% in 2020, will still take some time before returning to pre-crisis levels . The economic recovery of Delhi will depend on the evolution of domestic demand which is closely linked to the success of the vaccination campaign. Also in this case, the Government will intervene with a massive public aid plan, many of which will be diverted to the construction of the " National Infrastructure Pipeline " which will inevitably influence the recovery of Italian exports of capital goods to the country which in 2021 will grow by 12% (- 25.2% in 2020).
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/ecco-dove-il-made-in-italy-tornera-a-crescere/ on Sat, 25 Sep 2021 06:51:59 +0000.