Here is who and why (not) want Mps
Facts, numbers, comparisons and scenarios on Mps. Emanuela Rossi's article
A few more hitches for Unicredit on the road to Siena: work is being done on the acquisition while fears about employment repercussions and the fate of the many employees who may not find space in the new reality grow. To discuss and worry about the future of Rocca Salimbeni now are not only the trade unions but also politics. Meanwhile, the by-elections in Siena on 3 and 4 October are approaching and until then it is likely that no news will arrive regarding the fate of the oldest bank in the country.
THE REDUCED NODE
To cause concern among the unions and among the various political parties are the jobs at risk that would be around 5,000. Moreover, according to the accounts presented by the Press, the efficiency of Rocca Salimbeni has greatly deteriorated in recent years of state control. In fact, on average, in the first six months of 2021, 15 employees work at Montepaschi per branch, compared with 10 at Bper and Credem and 13 at Banco Bpm. Even in terms of profitability per employee, the argument is certainly not favorable to Siena. In fact, if Intesa Sanpaolo employs 18 branch workers, more than Mps, however each brings home average margins of 141 thousand euros, while in Banco Bpm it stands at 114 thousand euros, in Credem at 103 thousand euros, in Bper at 88 thousand. EUR. Last in the ranking is Siena with 73,000 euros per employee. Therefore, considering 4-5 employees in excess per branch out of 1,400 branches, the redundancies would be about 6-7 thousand and should not increase much with the acquisition by Unicredit because other institutions would take the field (according to Mediocredito Centrale and Bper indiscretions ).
MEANWHILE THE EMPLOYEES STRIKE
The unions, as we said, are in a state of excitement. On Friday, all the acronyms in the sector – Fabi, First Cisl, Fisac Cgil, Uilca Uil and Unisin Confsal – called for a strike that found – according to Fisac - a "strong" adhesion. Four principals in the square (in Milan, Rome, Bari and Siena, in front of the Rocca) to ask for a meeting at Palazzo Chigi and to protest against the “stew” hypothesis and the possible closure of 50 branches throughout the country. "Today's strike is not a no to Unicredit nor does it want to represent a wall against the Treasury and the government, for what they are doing" commented the secretary general of Fabi, Lando Maria Sileoni. "I am convinced that Prime Minister Draghi, Minister Franco and the Director General of the Treasury Rivera will find, with Unicredit, the best possible solutions, solutions that the unions will evaluate and oppose if they are not socially and politically sustainable". For Sileoni "if a possible agreement is reached between the government and Unicredit, I believe that we will have to consider positively that an Italian group, even if with the economic help of the State, will take on a complicated situation such as that of MPS, which will allow it to manage any redundancies without layoffs and to guarantee the salaries of over 21,000 workers and their families ”.
Certainly it is necessary to protect the employees of the Sienese institute who “have already contributed, in economic terms, with hundreds of millions of euros to keep the bank running, both by giving up part of the severance pay and with the days of solidarity. Today's protest has several objectives: that of workers and trade unions being involved by the government, and that of telling those who will take MPS and the Treasury that the time has come for all the sacrifices made, professional and economic, to be rewarded and that finally return to normality and stability ".
WHAT THE ANALYSTS OF THE FUTURE OF MPS THINK
In the meantime, the market also has its doubts about the future of the Sienese bank. In particular, it is reasoned on the fact that, if the negotiation with Unicredit were not to be successful, via XX Settembre would leave Mps to its fate given that at the end of the year it will have to dispose of its 64% based on the agreements with Brussels. And certainly – as we have seen – the Rocca would have more than a few difficulties. Therefore – the Milano Finanza website reports – the EU could not give the green light to leave Mps alone and "the liquidation of the bank would be risked with the dismissal of all employees", a path that however "would destabilize the financial system .
Or Brussels could give its assent “but demand a downsizing with the departure of over 7,000 employees. And, given that MPS “came out very badly from the stress tests in July (the worst European institution), the risk is that it will have to transform part of the subordinated debt into equity and therefore capital solidity”. Such a situation, according to Bestinver analysts, would lead to a bail-in.
On the other hand, it could happen that Andrea Orcel's group finds an agreement with the Mef and "in that case the subordinated bonds would see prices realign to those of the buyer, with more solid shoulders (it would be a nice rally)". The holders of the bonds would therefore have a nice advantage which, according to Kbw analysts, "would nullify the spirit of EU law, since the holders of the subordinated debt are institutional funds". The only solution would therefore be “that of a voluntary conversion of the bonds into equity and / or other subordinated debt to be agreed with the holders of the bonds, which is linked to the rest of the transaction”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/mps-unicredit/ on Tue, 28 Sep 2021 05:42:25 +0000.