Here’s how Covid will affect oil demand. The Aie report
What will happen to oil according to the International Energy Agency
The prospects for the oil market are "fragile" due to the increase in Covid-19 infections in many countries which "raises doubts" on the growth in demand. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has kept its oil consumption forecasts substantially unchanged , forecasting that demand will drop by 8.4 million barrels per day in 2020 (to reach 91.7 million barrels per day). barrels) but will rise to 5.5 million barrels per day in 2021 (to reach 97.2 million barrels per day).
Numbers that align with S&P Global Platts Analytics' forecast of a decline in demand of 8.3 million barrels per day this year and an increase of 6.2 million barrels per day next.
According to the IEA, the oil market has to deal not only with Covid but also with a limited ability to manage an extra offer in the coming months that may come from the potential increase in Libya's production, but also from the fact that OPEC + continues to loosen its odds.
TOO MANY STOCKS
Furthermore, the oil market is still trying to digest a huge surplus of stocks since the beginning of this year even though they are decreasing. The AIE sees a "significant" withdrawal of 4 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, but noted that this phenomenon "is happening at record levels" of storage so it assumes a long way to go.
STILL NO PEAK. WHAT WEO 2020 SAYS
Looking ahead, global oil demand is still set on a flat line rather than a peak over the next two decades. So there is no danger that the pandemic could trigger a rapid shift from oil to cleaner energy. After recovering from the "exceptional ferocity" of the Covid-19 crisis, world oil demand will increase from 97.9 million barrels per day in 2019 to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2040, according to the IEA base scenario. outlined in its latest World Energy Outlook .
Compared to last year's report, however, oil demand is expected to be around 2 million barrels a day lower in 2030, when it stabilizes at just over 103 million barrels a day on a lower trajectory but will continue to rise for the next decade, according to Aie.
Clean transport policies and the rise of renewable energy will continue to dent growth in oil demand, the International Energy Agency believes, but petrochemicals and long-distance transport are blamed for all of the growth in oil. net demand by 2040.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/ecco-come-covid-influenzera-la-domanda-di-petrolio-il-report-aie/ on Sun, 25 Oct 2020 12:00:29 +0000.