Here’s how Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Mps, Banco Bpm and Bper thank the ECB
The ECB is alarmed by the Italian tax on banks' extra margins, but in the meantime the Italian institutions – not just Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit – are toasting the Lagarde effect. All the details
It irritated the bankers, who however avoided rifts with the government; the unions liked it, but they fear the boomerang effect; it alarmed the ECB, which appears to be preparing to send a letter to Rome asking for a rethink; it has created friction within the government coalition, not solid in the proposal (see the dissent of Forza Italia). We are talking about the tax on bank extra profits, contained in the so-called Omnibus decree published in the Official Gazette last August 10, about whose future some doubts are starting to circulate. Also because if, as Corriere della Sera writes, the architect of the rate hike – and of the consequent decision to introduce the new tax -, Christine Lagarde, were to slap the government, another front would open up with Europe for the Meloni executive.
After all, however, there is no doubt that more than someone toasted by reading the last quarterly reports.
INTESA SANPAOLO IN 2023 AIMS FOR PROFITS ABOVE 7 BILLION
Let's start with the two big names in Italian credit, namely Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit. The bank led by Carlo Messina closed the first half of the year with a net profit of 4.22 billion (of which 2.27 billion in the second quarter), an increase of 80% compared to the same period of 2022. Good growth in net interest at 6.84 billion (+68.9% on year) and operating income at 12.4 billion (+15.3% on year).
Respectable figures that have led Ca' de Sass to forecast for 2023, according to the note accompanying the accounts, "a significant increase in operating profit, deriving from a solid growth in revenues driven by net interest (net interest expected to amount to over 13.5 billion euros in 2023 and to grow further in 2024 and 2025) and by a continuous focus on cost management". At the same time, “a sharp drop in net value adjustments to loans is expected, with a consequent growth in net income to well over 7 billion euro”.
Also for 2024 and 2025 Intesa Sanpaolo has estimated a higher net profit than that forecast for the current year and, last but not least , an interim cash dividend on 2023 results of no less than 2.45 billion. “This year we will be able to distribute €5.8 billion to our shareholders considering the May dividend, the second tranche of the buyback and the November interim dividend” Messina clarified during the conference call with analysts.
UNICREDIT AS INTESA SANPAOLO AND 2024 IN LINE WITH 2023
Just above Intesa Sanpaolo was the result of Unicredit, which closed the first half year with a profit of 4.4 billion (+91.5%), of which 2.3 billion in the second quarter (above the estimates of analysts who pointed to 1. 87 billion euros). In the April-June period, revenues also grew to 5.9 billion (+24.4%), supported – as per the group's note – by an interest margin of 3.5 billion, up 41.3% on year “thanks to the higher level of interest rates and good management of the 'pass-through' on deposits”.
Also for Andrea Orcel's institute, the results obtained in the first half of the year have prompted an improvement in the guidance for the whole of 2023: net profit over 7.25 billion, interest margin of at least 13.2 billion, net revenues above 21.5 billion. All this would lead to the distribution to shareholders of dividends equal to or greater than 6.5 billion thanks to “an extremely robust capital generation of 210 basis points in the first half of 2023”.
And for 2024 expected net profit and distribution to shareholders "substantially in line with 2023".
BANCO BPM, IN THE FIRST HALF, PROFIT NEAR +80%
Banco Bpm's half-year report was also not bad, with net income increasing by 77.9% year-on-year to 624 million euro. In the second quarter alone, on the other hand, it practically doubled to 359 million, above the 335 million expected by the experts. Plus signs also for operating income at 2.6 billion (+13.4% on year), for the interest margin at 1.55 billion (+49.4% on year) and for operating expenses at 1.3 billion (+1.4%).
As with Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit, in the light of these numbers, the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna has improved its 2023 profit target to at least 1.2 billion, or 0.8 euro per share, against the previous estimate of 0.75 euros per share. On the other hand, the projection remained unchanged, increasing for 2024 to 0.9 euro per share (+12.5%). And shortly, with the arrival of the new industrial plan by the end of the year, the shareholder remuneration targets will be updated which will reflect "the positive results achieved in terms of profitability and organic capital creation".
MPS ASTONISHES ANALYSTS AND AIMS TO EXCEED 1 BILLION IN PROFIT
Half-yearly with all the trimmings for Montepaschi, which came close to Banco Bpm with a profit of 619 million, up more than 11 times compared to 53 million in the period January-June 2022. Excellent results in the second quarter with profit rising to 383 million (+62.6% over the quarter), well over the 217 million expected by the experts. As reported in the note accompanying the accounts, it was the “third consecutive quarter of growth in net income”. And for a bank that has seen a lot of them in recent years and which has greatly risked not being there anymore, not bad.
Reading the accounts, we discover that the interest margin grew to 1.08 billion (+64.4% on year), revenues to 1.85 billion euro (+19.2% on year even if commissions fell by 9.1% to 670 million) and income from financial management by 29.1% to 100.3 million. EBITDA also accelerated to 937 million (+95.9% on the year), also thanks to the 523 million in the second quarter (+26.3% on the first).
Obviously, these accounts too have prompted Rocca Salimbeni to expect to close 2023 with strong growth and precisely with a profit before taxes of over 1 billion. A result higher than the 2026 target of 909 million set by the 2022-2026 business plan. Furthermore, during the conference call with analysts, the managing director Luigi Lovaglio announced the "possibility of bringing forward the distribution of the dividend based on the 2024 profit".
BPER PROFIT FALLING (WITHOUT CARIGE GOODWILL) BUT PROFIT EXPECTED AT AROUND €1.1BN
The situation for Bper is somewhat different, which instead in the first six months of 2023 recorded a net profit of 704.6 million, down 49% on the year considering that the benefits of Carige's goodwill had made themselves felt at the time. Revenues grew by 49.5%, operating income by 48.4% to over 2.6 billion thanks above all to a strong increase in the interest margin (+96.7%) to 1.5 billion.
In the comment to the half-yearly Piero Luigi Montani, CEO of Bper, however highlighted that "the improvement in the macroeconomic outlook and interest rates compared to expectations as well as the excellent business performance allow us to increase the guidance for 2023 on the main metrics expecting to be able to achieve a net ordinary income of approximately 1.1 billion".
BANCA MEDIOLANUM, ANALYSTS ASSUME THE BEST NET INCOME IN HISTORY
Lagarde effect also for Banca Mediolanum which closed the first half of 2023 with net profit up by 51% to 363.25 million and total net inflows by 8% to 4.69 billion. The interest margin also did well – at 347.3 million, +107% year-on-year – thanks to the increase in interest rates and the weight of the variable component in the composition of the loan portfolio and securities held by the Treasury, as highlighted in the note released by the credit institution. And finally, the analysts' forecast: considering the trend in the interest margin and the quality of the assets, they hypothesize that Banca Mediolanum will close 2023 with its best net profit in history at 737 million.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/banche-italiane-effetto-bce-risultati-semestrali/ on Mon, 21 Aug 2023 05:42:54 +0000.