Here’s how Moscow accelerates in the munitions race
Russia is outpacing Ukraine's allies in the munitions race. Facts, numbers and insights
Russia could produce almost three times more artillery ammunition than the United States and Europe.
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, warnings are growing louder that Kiev is running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are in short supply, with experts and front-line soldiers estimating that Russian artillery is outnumbering Ukrainian artillery seven to one on the battlefield, Bloomberg reported yesterday.
Ukraine and its allies are losing the race to secure the munitions Kiev needs to repel Russian attacks. The flow of Western military aid into Ukraine has fallen sharply, officials from allied nations told the news agency, and some Ukrainian weapons are firing just one round a day to preserve their dwindling supplies.
Russian forces are now launching seven times more projectiles than their adversaries. This is more than double the rate at the end of January, when Kiev warned its allies that it would be defeated three to one.
“We are now in a production war,” a senior NATO official told CNN . “The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to wage this war.”
All the details.
UKRAINE IN TROUBLE
The West is struggling to maintain a steady flow of supplies into Ukraine by scouring the world for bullets. But as these initiatives are slow to get off the ground, it's unclear whether they will bear enough fruit in the near term to keep Ukraine's front line stable, Bloomberg notes. “We have no time to waste,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said in an email to Bloomberg . “Long-term commitments are important, but it is also a fact of war that the side with the most ammunition will win.” “We know that the Russian military industry is working in three shifts and Ukraine's supplies are rapidly reducing,” added Prime Minister Kallas. “Without our support this war may well be lost.”
Allies of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are increasingly worried that a summer offensive by the Russians could breach Ukraine's defenses, according to officials who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.
THE WARNING LAUNCHED BY ZELENSKY
Meanwhile, a week ago the leader of Kiev admitted to the Washington Post that without any help, Kiev's troops will be forced to retreat. As well as ceding territorial gains to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who could then target major cities. “If you need 8,000 rounds a day to defend the front line, but you only have, say, 2,000, you need to do less,” he said. "As? Of course, to go back. Shorten the front line.”
RUSSIA'S SPRINT ON AMMUNITIONS
For its part, Moscow produces about 250,000 artillery rounds per month, or about 3 million per year, according to NATO intelligence estimates on Russian defense production shared with CNN , as well as according to sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine.
According to estimates by the Estonian Ministry of Defense, this year Russia is expected to produce or refurbish around 4.5 million projectiles. Added to this is the ammunition it receives from North Korea and Iran, Bloomberg further underlines.
WHAT ABOUT THE WESTERN ALLIES?
And from the West instead? Collectively, the United States and Europe have the capacity to produce only about 1.2 million rounds of ammunition per year to send to Kiev, a senior European intelligence official told CNN .
In particular, the EU is destined to produce only 1.4 million bullets in 2024 and up to 2 million next year, Bloomberg recalls. The United States is working to produce 1.2 million bullets by the end of 2025, but that effort also depends on Congress approving the relief package. And European companies are working with Ukrainian companies to increase domestic production, but this effort will also take time to bear fruit.
Ukraine's supply of projectiles wouldn't necessarily have to match Russia's, as modern weapons systems are more accurate than Russia's, according to military officials cited by Bloomberg , but they need to get close. Raising Ukraine's rate to three shots for every seven fired by Russia would also make a big difference, they add.
Once U.S. and European production increases later this year and next, Kiev's supplies should begin to stabilize, Western officials say. But the main problem will be bridging the gap until then, Bloomberg concludes.
Finally, Brussels' missed target on ammunition should not be forgotten. The EU had promised to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by last March. Since the target was set in March 2023, the EU has provided Kiev with only half that amount.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/ecco-come-mosca-accelera-nella-corsa-alle-munizioni/ on Thu, 04 Apr 2024 09:38:55 +0000.