How and why the Philippines are approaching the US on defense
Concerned about China's aggressiveness, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has adopted the most muscular foreign policy the Philippines has seen in nearly a decade. The insight of the New York Times
For years, the Philippines has stood on the sidelines as Chinese forces rammed their fishing vessels and occupied the reefs and shoals that once belonged to the Southeast Asian nation.
Those days may soon be over, writes the NYT .
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who took office in June, has adopted the most muscular foreign policy approach the Philippines has seen in nearly a decade. It is seeking alliances, restoring defense ties with the United States and prioritizing the territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.
Earlier this month, Marcos agreed to give the US military access to four new defense sites in the Philippines. On the same day, Washington said it would resume joint patrols with the Philippines in the South China Sea, suspended by Manila for six years. It is speculated that Subic Bay, a crown jewel among the Philippines' many naval sites, will also welcome American soldiers in the coming months.
Marcos' decisions were largely motivated by the territorial dispute the Philippines has with Beijing in the South China Sea. But he also shared concerns about a possible Chinese invasion of the self-governed island of Taiwan, saying "it is very difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Philippines will not be involved in some way."
On Tuesday, Marcos summoned the Chinese ambassador after a Chinese coast guard vessel directed a military-grade laser at a Philippine ship, the first time in years that a president has personally filed such a protest.
From an American perspective, Marcos's approach was a welcome change, though not without discussion within the Philippines. His predecessor Rodrigo Duterte embraced China and distanced himself from the United States until the last months of his mandate. Marcos has brought the two countries even closer together, making the Philippines the linchpin of the Biden administration's strategy to counter China with a greater military presence in the region.
The northernmost inhabited island of the Philippines, Itbayat is just 93 miles from Taiwan. The United States and the Philippines have not disclosed the four new sites Americans will have access to, but three face Taiwan and one borders the South China Sea, an official familiar with the discussions said. spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to share the details of the negotiations.
The Philippines' shift in strategy comes as US-China relations are at a particularly low point. The recent incursion of a Chinese surveillance balloon and the ensuing diplomatic row prompted Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken to cancel his visit to China at the last minute. Although the secretary of state and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, spoke at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, their sharp exchange of views did nothing to ease tensions.
Manila may grant the US access to more sites in the Philippines in the coming months, despite China's anger.
In an interview, the Philippine ambassador to the United States, Jose Romualdez, said that Subic Bay – once the site of the largest US military base outside the United States – is "one of the sites being considered" for future US military access.
Subic Bay is one of Asia's most strategic deepwater ports, with direct access to the South China Sea and the Bashi Channel, a waterway that separates Taiwan from the Philippines. Now an American private equity firm controls a shipyard.
The story of how Cerberus Capital Management took over the shipyard despite competition from China highlights Filipinos' growing distrust of Beijing and the country's growing commitment to Washington.
In 2019, after it emerged that two Chinese companies had expressed interest in buying the shipyard from a South Korean firm, a former Philippine navy chief, Alexander Pama, warned on Facebook that the Philippines was facing a "national security problem". very significant".
A senior Navy official, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to disclose private discussions to the media, said the Navy was intent on preventing a Chinese takeover.
Duterte's defense secretary, Delfin Lorenzana, told reporters he wanted the Philippine government to take control of the shipyard. But Hanjin, the South Korean firm, had more than $1 billion in loans and Manila couldn't afford the debt.
A second senior Navy official, who declined to be named, said the Navy then met with the U.S. Embassy in Manila, asking U.S. officials to find a possible buyer, but warned the U.S. government shouldn't get involved because of Duterte's hatred towards Washington.
Privately, Duterte had begun to change his views on China and the United States.
Washington had donated millions of Covid-19 vaccines to the Philippines by the summer of 2021. That year, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III told Duterte that the United States viewed the Philippines as "a sovereign and equitable partner." A day later, Duterte announced that the Armed Forces Visiting Agreement, a mutual defense pact he had repeatedly threatened to end, was back in effect.
During Duterte's tenure, China spent just 3 percent of the $24 billion it had pledged to invest in the Philippines, according to data.
Two months before Duterte left office in June, the Philippine government said Cerberus — whose top leadership is made up of former US government officials — had purchased the shipyard.
Although the Philippines is the largest recipient of US military aid in the Indo-Pacific, Marcos has been concerned with demonstrating that his country is not dependent on one superpower or the other. Philippine officials hope that strengthening alliances and joint exercises with the United States, Japan and South Korea will help modernize the country's military and strengthen its independence.
This month, Marcos agreed to increase economic and defense cooperation with Japan and the Philippines said it would work with the UK on maritime law enforcement. The Philippine Navy will be one of Subic Bay's new tenants.
The US military was unceremoniously driven out of the Philippines in 1992 after widespread nationalist protests. The impending reintroduction of American soldiers, who will be distributed on a rotational basis at various military sites, has caused some outrage.
Cagayan and Isabela are two Philippine provinces where the US has most likely gained access to military sites. Both provinces border Taiwan, adding to local anxiety about being between two superpowers.
In an interview, Manuel Mamba, governor of Cagayan, said he was not consulted about the sites and opposed giving the United States access because he feared it would make Cagayan "a magnet for a nuclear strike."
“China is not our enemy,” he said. “The people of Cagayan will be in the middle” of a conflict between the United States and China, he added. “Why should we fight their battles?”.
Rodolfo Albano III, governor of Isabela, said he was unaware of a site in his province. He said he did not want American weapons in Isabela "because our province will become a target."
“We have a good relationship with Beijing, right? Why make things worse? They didn't do anything to us,” Albano said.
But Mr. Mamba and Mr. Albano are in the minority. Public polls show that nine out of ten Filipinos want the government to assert its rights to the South China Sea. Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit, founder of a think tank studying the Philippines, said his organization's latest poll conducted in December showed that 84 percent of Filipinos preferred the United States to China as a partner for safety.
Richard Gordon, a former senator and former chairman of the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, said Manila's failure to confront China on the South China Sea shows that his country "has no backbone." “They are my fellow provincials, my compatriots. And our presidents have failed to defend them,” he said, referring to Chinese vessels harassing Philippine vessels.
He cried the day the Americans left, Gordon added.
If American soldiers were to return to Subic Bay a generation after leaving, they would be welcome, even if the place is now a shadow of its former self.
Much of the former US base has been turned into a duty-free zone. Resort hotels dot the beach once occupied by American sailors, and a safari park called Zoobic attracts tourists. Outside the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, a plaque commemorates November 24, 1992, the date of departure of the Americans. It reads: "We threw away the tents that had trapped us."
Norberto Montibon, 63, a security guard at Subic Bay, recalled that it was a sad day when the last US ships left, not only because he had lost his job at a Navy ship repair facility, but also because the Americans "were a huge part of our life here”.
“If the United States hadn't left Subic, China wouldn't have had the islands in the West Philippine Sea,” Montibon said, using the official government name for the disputed waters in the South China Sea.
The same year that American soldiers left Subic Bay, China passed a law reclaiming all the disputed islands in the South China Sea and the waters surrounding them.
(Excerpt from the press release of eprcommunication)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/filippine-politica-estera-cina-stati-uniti/ on Sat, 25 Feb 2023 06:10:52 +0000.