How Draghi will move between the US and the EU. Caracciolo’s analysis (Limes)
What does the director of Limes, Lucio Caracciolo, think and what does he expect from the Draghi government
How will Mario Draghi's Italy move on the chessboard of international politics?
This is what the editor of the geopolitical magazine Limes thinks, Lucio Caracciolo, who in recent days in editorials and interviews has analyzed the expectations and prospects of the Draghi government.
Our role, our strength in foreign policy will largely depend on the speed with which we will be able to rise from the recession in which the Covid-19 pandemic has also plunged us. “We have a few months to restart the economy and limit the social and above all cultural repercussions of the health crisis by making the most of the extraordinary European funds – wrote Caracciolo in an editorial in the newspaper La Stampa -. To turn the external constraint, self-declaration of manifest inability to be Italy, in internal constraint. Thus demonstrating first of all to ourselves and then to the powers we have entrusted ourselves to – Germany from an economic point of view, America strategic reference, with France the link between the two – that we deserve to exist ”.
Going back to production to have our place in the world
When the director of Limes says that Italy must demonstrate that it deserves to exist, he means that our country must guarantee that it can be an autonomous entity , capable of relating as equals, or almost, with other European and international powers. "This government must relaunch the economy , or we will resume growth or our European and American partners will consider us as an entity to start from regardless – underlined Caracciolo in a live stream on Limes' YouTube channel -. Either we remain part of the great European and American game or we risk returning to a condition not unlike that experienced immediately after the Second World War. If Italy collapsed it would break both the power system of Europe and the US. We play everything from here to the end of the year ”.
Recovery Fund: Italy's test bed
The first test will be the management of European funds. “The litmus test is the management of EU funding that we should not collect for free in the coming months and years – continues Caracciolo in La Stampa -, provided we produce decent projects integrated into an economic regrowth strategy. If we don't know how to use them we will be accommodated behind the blackboard. Reduced to a mere geopolitical object . Nobody's land. That is everyone. Inert land, frayed. With the North German (Franco) workshop and the South at the vanguard of African chaos ”. But no one in the Euro-Atlantic system wants the end of Italy. “Some suspect that the Germans and the French, with the go-ahead from the Americans, intend to blow up the Italian bank – continues Caracciolo -. Nothing less true. Because this counter is theirs too. If we jump, they will suffer after us . Not only from an economic point of view, but above all in terms of safety. The Russians and Chinese could penetrate the southern flank of NATO, as they have begun to do. Exposing to the world the crisis of America's European empire ”. The stability of Italy, therefore, is not irrelevant for the stability of the Atlantic system.
Strengthen collaboration with Paris and Berlin
In choosing Draghi, President Mattarella entrusted himself to a man greatly appreciated by the European and American establishment. To want Draghi at Palazzo Chigi are France and Germana , Caracciolo said in an interview. “And with them all those who do not want Italy to sink. Draghi is the last card. An internal troika before the external one comes and Italy faces patatrac – the director of Limes remarked to Formiche – Who doesn't want Draghi? The penalty takers of the North. Finns, Austrians, Dutch, unconscious, cheer an Italian flop . Without realizing it would be theirs too. To catch up, we need to do well in Europe. To understand where the French and the Germans want to go, to strengthen the triangle with Paris and Berlin. It is in our as well as in their interest ”. To this, the director Caracciolo, added in his video interview that "the bond with Merkel has been refined over the years of the ECB presidency because Merkel has served as a bank for Draghi to protect the euro and manage quantitative easing and deny the monetary economic theory of the Bundesbank against the euro "
An Atlanticist government as the only alternative
Mario Draghi is not only a pro-European and a convinced Atlanticist but he is close to the American bureaucracy. “Draghi has two feet in the Atlantic world, a solid relationship with the Americans but also with the French and Germans – added Caracciolo -. With Berlin there will be no setbacks as long as the Merkel line prevails, which is that of the new head of the CDU Armin Laschet. I don't see alternatives. This is the soup and it is the only one we should eat ”. Washington's attention to Italy's destinies is clear from the public utterances of the newly elected President Biden . “Biden's very warm tweet to Draghi – concludes Caracciolo in La Stampa – last night confirms how interested Washington is in the fate of Rome. Losing or winning this battle for life is up to us ”.
The Silk Road was not a geopolitical choice
In reality, Italy's geopolitical inclinations have never changed. The strong Euro-Atlantic position was not affected by the " Silk Road " policy. “There was talk of a pro-Chinese turning point because we joined the Silk Road – Caracciolo points out to Formiche -. It was actually a Chinese pro-investment breakthrough in Italy. A choice born from an all-Italian approach to international relations, based on an economicist and not a geopolitical vision. Too bad it doesn't work with the Chinese. The two things always go hand in hand ”.
The Draghi Government will not be a technical government
The Draghi Government will not be a technical government. “Mario Draghi is the most recognized Italian figure in the world – concluded the director of Limes -. Certainly not for his econometric skills but for having saved the Eurozone in 2010. He has all the necessary authority ”. Leaving everything on Mario Draghi's shoulders and his reputation would, however, be very dangerous for the success of the enterprise of saving our country from the risk of geopolitical inconsistency. “The worst mistake would be to bet everything on Draghi's prestige, even if he were the thaumaturge king – adds Caracciolo in his editorial -. Without the mobilization of all national resources, starting with the state administrations that we have scientifically ruined in compliance with the external constraint (if other powers manage us, what are efficient institutions for?), We will end up under water. The decisive factor is to connect the economic revival to the geopolitical project . Repair the internal faults of the Peninsula, deepened by the epidemic emergency. Recompose, re-centralize them, powers and responsibilities ".
Reform the state administration to save Italy
The very high level of Draghi is not in question. " Under Draghi there is a state that does not work – adds Caracciolo in the video interview – which has been in organic crisis for at least 30 years, there are no real political parties and there is an economic and health condition that is destined to worsen , at least in its social component, when the redundancy block will end. There will be a further worsening when the psychological and cultural consequences of this epidemic phase become clear, when it becomes clear that not everything will be resolved with the vaccine but we will have to change our habits ”. On the other side of the story, however, continuing to dramatize it would be negative for our country. “Continuing to dramatize the epidemic as if it were war means jeopardizing the recovery – he concludes in his editorial -. Better to live with it, organizing a less indecent vaccination campaign . Fear immobilizes. The rhetoric of fear kills ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/come-si-muovera-draghi-fra-usa-e-ue-lanalisi-di-caracciolo-limes/ on Tue, 16 Feb 2021 13:06:51 +0000.