How the Russia-Ukraine war will change with F16s. General Camporini speaks
The role of the F16s. Putin's bluff threats. The forces in play. And the scenarios on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Conversation with Vincenzo Camporini, former chief of staff of the Defense and Air Force
Bombing the NATO bases from which the famous F16s that will soon be available to Ukraine would take off is yet another empty threat from Vladimir Putin. This is said by General Vincenzo Camporini, former chief of staff of the Defense and Air Force, who in this interview with Start Magazine also explains the reasons why those planes will not change the balance of a war which, he confides, no one can WIN.
Putin has also threatened to bomb the NATO bases from which the F16s that Ukraine will soon be equipped with will take off. He can do it?
No, for a very simple reason: those planes will never take off from Polish bases, for example. If anything, they would start from the Ukrainian bases after passing through the NATO countries that made them available to Kiev. A situation in which an attack mission starts from a NATO airport is not even conceivable, simply because NATO has not declared war on Russia.
So what do those statements by Putin mean? Propaganda?
His was a message aimed at domestic public opinion, but it was also aimed at fueling the infowar in which the Russians are masters.
What will change in the war with the arrival of the F16s?
Although they cannot be defined as a game changer, they will allow Ukraine to equip itself with an air capability that it does not have today and which will be used above all in a defensive key but also in support of land operations, with the concrete possibility of being decisive.
Will the Ukrainians be able to attack now?
At the moment, Russia has the initiative on the ground. For the Ukrainians to be able to operate offensively there must be a very unbalanced balance of forces in favor of the attacker. The manuals in this regard say that the ratio must be approximately three to one. But this also applies to the Russians, who if they wanted to increase their advantage could only significantly increase their forces and it is not clear whether they have them both in quantity and quality.
It seems to understand that no one is capable of breaking through and that we are therefore heading towards a frozen conflict.
Unfortunately. Ukraine does not have the resources to launch a new offensive and push the Russians back.
What are the Ukrainians missing to go on the attack?
Such a scenario is linked above all to the availability of adequate quantities of armaments and ammunition. However, what really matters are the famous boots on the ground and this, despite Macron's leap forward, is unfortunately not on the horizon, indeed it is out of reality.
But then the Ukrainians will never be able to get their provinces back?
The only possibility I see is that a turning point will mature in the Kremlin, that is, that the awareness will emerge that the special military operation is a failure that has brought Russia more disadvantages than benefits. In other words, Putin should make himself available for a serious negotiation whose key element would be the return of the occupied provinces.
But what if Putin doesn't give up?
We should then expect a very long war. Unfortunately, there is no military solution to this conflict, and therefore the current situation will continue indefinitely.
What if the West instead abandoned Ukraine to its fate?
I really fear that Kiev would be forced to surrender.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/come-puo-cambiare-la-guerra-russia-ucraina-con-gli-f16-parla-il-generale-camporini/ on Sun, 31 Mar 2024 07:10:46 +0000.