How will US foreign policy change with Biden?
What will happen to relations between the United States and the European Union with Biden in the White House. The in-depth analysis by Daniela Coli
The US media (for example The Hill ) press heavily on the need for the transatlantic alliance and on the relationship with Germany. Historian Adam Tooze, director of European Studies at Columbia University, tweets that he has lost his naive faith in the United States and on November 11 will discuss the end of the American century with Schäuble in Berlin. The word faith is common in US political language and was also the base word of Gentile's political philosophy (small nuances), but Tooze is a Cambridge historian, British citizen and German history specialist.
American ideology is a mix of offensive realism (think only of Clint Eastwood's American Sniper or Mearsheimer's theories) and religious nationalism (the belief that you have been chosen by God for the mission of world domination), but it has had to collide with reality. Since the Korean War, the US has not won a war, apart from the First Gulf War to liberate Kuwait (1991) made with a coalition of 35 states by Bush sr who then lost the elections with Clinton. From 2001 to today the US and NATO wars in the Middle East have been a disaster and the loss of American hegemony in the Middle East is one of the great problems debated by the Democrats (see, precisely, The Hill ) and, for this reason, they fight so much on the alliance with Europe.
In reality, Trump with the Abraham Agreements has solved the problem of Israel recognized by the Emirates, Bahrain, various African states and partly also by Saudi Arabia. Biden's cancellation of Jerusalem, the capital of Israel and the Abraham Agreements, should not be thought of. Israel could even change its ally, as it has always done in its history. Israel could return to its initial friendship with Russia and France. Furthermore, MbS has a very good relationship with Putin and the UK, France wants an agreement with Russia and wants to build a French Islam with the help of the Emirates. Germany has a partnership with Russia (on the manifesto Sergio Romano said that Navalny's poisoning is against Merkel), it has German Islam, a good relationship with Turkey and these different Islams do not necessarily have to fight each other. To the usual exceptionalism of the United States, Trump has contrasted an isolationism that has strengthened Europe, despite Brexit and the Trumpian populists.
As Wolfgang Münchau pointed out, a Trump victory would have been preferable, because European military sovereignty would have become indisputable. A sovereignty is not based on theories, as philosophers believe, but on the ability to react to the enemy. Trump never thought of destroying Germany, but he would have preferred bilateral relations with European states because they are more easily dominated. If Biden's victory slowed the process of European sovereignty it would be dramatic, as Münchau noted. For this reason, German and French foreign and interior ministers are pressing on the need for strategic autonomy in Europe. Norbert Röttgen, one of the eligible candidates as Merkel's successor, very monitored in the US and UK, tweeted a few days ago that just a few states can come to an agreement and start doing politics to have strategic autonomy: the EU27 is not necessary indeed it would be an obstacle. This has always been the British thesis and also the origin of Brexit.
Biden's victory doesn't change much for France and Germany, it makes Brexit more difficult because the Democrats are pro-Irish and are against any changes to the current Irish border. Between the UK and the US there has always been the Irish problem with Democratic presidents: the Telegraph was very hard when Ted Kennedy died because the Kennedys were considered financiers of the IRA. Biden of Irish descent and Harris of an Indian mother were not taken well in Downing Street and the joke about a possible “Indian” presidency Harris signals British intolerance to the new presidential team. The immediate British stance in favor of Egypt and the Emirates in the event of US punishment for relations with China shows that the UK has its cards to play. There was much talk after Johnson's victory of a friendship treaty between the United Kingdom and Germany, similar to that of the Elysée between France and Germany. In short, the British left a few doors open.
Trump promised Brexit an important agreement with the US and the creation of an alliance with Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and even India. A theoretical hypothesis, which was linked to Hong Kong and Taiwan, even a military hypothesis, it is not known how feasible, because India and Japan are not so "American" and "British" as some "Western" analysts describe them. In any case, the German commercial and military choice of the Indo-Pacific opens up to Asian countries a solution similar to Obama's TPP later canceled by Trump. The German choice can also be pursued by other European states.
To be autonomous, Europe must have technological, economic, military, energy autonomy, and it is clearly a political project. With China and Russia, the historical problems of military and technological rivalry will remain for the US, as well as the fear of being economically overcome by China. Little will change with Biden. Chinese, Russians, Mexicans and Brazilians have not yet sent their greetings to Biden. Unlike Venezuela and Bolivia which, however, are in the Russian-Chinese orbit. Israel has also hesitated to thank Biden and probably looks to Russia, France, China as possible allies to replace the US if Trump's policy changes. We are witnessing a "balkanization" of Latin America and perhaps also of the Middle East where the American empire is showing great weariness. Probably, the Iranian question could also be resolved between the Arab countries of the Abraham Agreement and between Russia and Europe. Once the relations between Israel and the Gulf countries are resolved, the rest follows accordingly. We should remember that from 600 to 1945 the world was dominated by multilateralism and Biden could usher in a new form of multilateralism, if he abandons exceptionalism. Once the ideological hangover of the short century has passed, the geopolitical issues of all time remain and the diversity of the zones of influence among Europeans could even be an instrument of balance for Europe. Difficult to repeat the same story over and over.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/ecco-come-cambiera-la-politica-estera-usa-con-biden/ on Wed, 11 Nov 2020 05:15:38 +0000.