I’ll explain Merkel’s fluctuations on viruses and restrictions
What does the Merkel government say and what it does in Germany. The in-depth analysis by Francesco Bascone, former ambassador to Belgrade, Nicosia and Vienna / Osce, taken from Affari Internazion al
The self-criticism pronounced on March 24 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in revoking the decision, taken just two days earlier, to impose on the country five days of draconian closure around Easter was a sensational, unexpected gesture. But the mistake you accused yourself of, assuming sole responsibility for it and even asking forgiveness from all citizens, was it really such?
For some time, faced with the growth of infections and hospitalizations, the chancellor had warned that the "emergency brake" would have to be pulled. The Easter holidays, setting in motion trips, visits and family celebrations, risked causing a flare-up. Doctors and scientists recommended an abrupt halt, asking the population to stay at home for five days: a sacrifice considered bearable, in the perspective of a relaxation in the summer thanks to the expected acceleration of vaccinations.
It had not been easy to convince some of the Ministerpräsidenten (governors) of the Regions, especially those in which the incidence rate is still between 50 and 100, about a third or a quarter of the Italian one. But to their perplexities was added a movement of intolerance of many citizens and exasperation of traders and restaurateurs. The media have criticized very severely the adoption of an exceptional measure at short notice (actually 10 days), causing economic damage to restaurants, hotels and shops that had already stocked themselves with perishable goods. And they raised doubts about the legitimacy, even in emergency situations, of measures limiting fundamental freedoms, in the absence of specific laws.
Many MPs from the CDU, Merkel's party, have embraced those criticisms to stop the loss of consensus highlighted by the polls. Armin Laschet himself, the chancellor's dolphin who became president of the CDU in January, dissociated himself.
SELF-CRITICS
As during the so-called 2015 migration crisis, Angela Merkel made an ethically right (saving lives) but politically damaging choice. With one difference: it was a spectacular opening then, six years later it attempted a drastic closure. This time around, no longer at the peak of popularity, he didn't have the strength to keep the bar straight in the storm. He backed down, not least not to bring water to the mill on the far right of the AfD. And to spare his party, and his ministers, the accusation of chaotic management, he took all the (alleged) blame.
The trend of the infection in the coming weeks – or rather, the degree of occupation of the intensive care units – will tell us whether it was really a serious mistake to adopt that rigorous precautionary measure, now revoked. The main argument of those who opposed it is that the numbers in Germany are still low when compared with neighboring countries. The incidence rate at 14 days (195) is about 35% of the French or Italian one, 15% of the Czech one.
In Austria this rate is more than double that of Germany, in Vienna it is almost triple. In various hospitals, the resuscitation wards have reached the level of saturation, and the spectrum of "triage" (selection of the saves) has appeared. In the north-eastern regions, including Vienna, a hard lockdown will be imposed from 1 to 6 April, similar to that initially arranged in Germany; after which it will return to partial lockdown for at least another 2-3 weeks, without excluding new turns of the screw.
THE NODE OF THE VARIATIONS
It remains to be clarified why there are more alarmists in Berlin than in countries with higher rates of contagion and / or availability of much smaller resuscitation wards. Evidently the latter believe they can counteract the third wave like the previous ones, extending the use of classic methods (masks, distancing, smart working), while in Germany there is a fear that the qualitative leap made by the virus with the spread of the variant is underestimated " English". Among other things, this would significantly increase the percentage of patients who end up in intensive care. According to the chancellor, with the advent of virus mutations we are in a "new pandemic".
If, as seems plausible, due to the effect of the English variant (and perhaps the even more frightening South African and Brazilian) the situation in hospitals worsens until an important part of the population is vaccinated, in the next 2-3 months it will be inevitable to take more measures. drastic and it will have to be recognized that Angela Merkel was right, indeed that she was wrong to accuse herself with such emphasis of being wrong.
THE SENSE OF COMPROMISE
On March 28, interviewed on TV by Anne Will, the Chancellor clarified that the step back does not mean a renunciation of pulling the "emergency brake": it was therefore a decisive tactical retreat because "politics sometimes requires compromises". Now awaits a surge of sense of responsibility from those presidents of the Länder who still believe they can fight the mutated virus with the methods that were good for the original Covid (masks and tests). Otherwise it will be necessary to strengthen the powers of the central government by amending the anti-pandemic law (but even here it would be necessary to convince the Länder to have the consent of the Bundesrat, the Chamber of Regions).
Merkel did not hide her disapproval of those Ministerpräsidenten (also CDU) who are reluctant to impose new restrictions, or even inclined to envisage easing while the rates of infections and hospitalizations rise. Including Laschet, at the head of the most populous Land (18 million), North Rhine-Westphalia. Also on Sunday evening, the president of Bavaria and leader of the party-brother of the CDU, the CSU, Markus Söder, who has always been a champion of the policy of rigor in the fight against the virus, expressed full support for Angela Merkel's line and hoped for the strengthening of skills federal in this matter. The hypothesis of his candidacy for Merkel's succession is increasingly emerging, in competition with the less incisive Laschet.
Article published on International Affairs, here the full version
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/vi-spiego-le-oscillazioni-di-merkel-su-virus-e-restrizioni/ on Tue, 30 Mar 2021 06:02:35 +0000.