I’ll explain the geopolitical troubles that the war on wheat hides
All the repercussions of the stop to the wheat agreement for the "Global South". General Carlo Jean's analysis
In recent international meetings, there has been a growing resentment of the so-called "Global South" towards the West. A significant number of South American, African and Middle Eastern countries have dissociated themselves from Western condemnation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. He approached China and its economic and financial institutions, competitive with those of Bretton Woods, dominated by the USA and their European and Asian allies.
THE SOUTH OF THE WORLD LOOKS TO RUSSIA AND CHINA
This event has its deep roots in the colonization and exploitation of the North towards the riches of the South, which attributes its difficulties and inefficiencies to the former, as well as in the envy for the wealth and well-being of the West compared to what was once called the Third World. More recently, this resentment finds its roots – especially in the ruling classes of the South, more than in its populations – in Western pressure to adopt its own principles and values, especially in terms of democracy and human rights, in pressure for ecological transition, in the fight against terrorism and corruption, as well as in the delays and limitations placed on the transfer of anti-COVID vaccines and debt forgiveness.
Added to this, especially in Africa and the Middle East, is the popularity of Russia. It is also influenced by the presence in various states of the Wagner Group , which protects various autocratic regimes from popular protests and threats from their opponents. Autonomy from ex-colonial powers represents a tool widely used by regimes for the survival of their corrupt powers. Without their preventive elimination, any "Mattei Plan" for Africa constitutes pious illusion, good for European public opinion, which is moreover opposed to any forceful action, also because it would appear to be a recolonisation. The West can only act by proxy, using the military might of Egypt, Turkey and perhaps Algeria.
THE DIVERGENT INTERESTS OF THE WEST
The interests of the various Western states are not only different, but also conflicting with each other. For example, they have been and remain so in the Sahel between Italy, concerned above all with the fight against sub-Saharan immigration and from the Gulf, and France, interested in its mining companies and counter-terrorism. To achieve its goals, Paris needs the support of local tribes who derive substantial economic benefits from the trafficking of migrants. Until Europe succeeds in drawing up a united African policy, it will be increasingly marginalized. Its policy, rather than by governments, will be defined by industrial and mining groups. The control and, probably, the containment of clandestine immigration will perhaps be an exception, as we saw at the great conference in Rome. They can only be based, as was the case before the Arab spring, on the European support of the band of autocracies in North Africa, capable of containing immigrants from the south in the desert, via the Horn of Africa, from southern Asia.
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE END OF THE UKRAINIAN WHEAT AGREEMENT
The end of the agreement on the export of Ukrainian wheat (joined with the Indian embargo on rice exports) risks creating serious food problems in the poorest countries and will risk making the immigration flow on the Mediterranean coasts dramatic. Few speak of Indian rice. It is not politically correct to do so. India cannot be faulted, as its support is essential for the US in its confrontation with China.
The suspension of the agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports is an excellent opportunity to argue how "bad" Putin is. There is talk of his willingness to blackmail the West, of a "war on wheat" or a "war of hunger", as well as his desire for revenge for the flop suffered in the "gas war", won by Europe also with the help of the "God-climate" and the attacks by Ukrainian drones on the Kerch bridge and on Moscow itself. The destruction of grain silos in Odessa is touted as an insult to the starving, who also applauded the destruction of Odessa's Transfiguration Orthodox Cathedral, inaugurated in 2010 by Kiril himself, "Putin's altar boy," according to Pope Francis. The Russian attempt to attribute responsibility to a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile that went off target was greeted with sarcasm by the whole world, now accustomed to the lies of the Kremlin, which only some of our own "soloni" still believe.
More than hitting Europe, the decision of the "master of the Kremlin" to suspend the agreement on wheat (in Ukraine there are 33 million tons of cereals to be exported) hits the states of the Global South, many of whose political leaders are gathered in St. Petersburg for the annual Russia-Africa summit. Even if for now Putin's decision has not led to particular price increases and reductions in supplies, criticism has not been spared. Strange that the Kremlin did not foresee this. The reaction was almost panic. Putin has tried to attribute the responsibility to the West, which allegedly denied Russian banks the SWIFT system of international interbank payments (which no one had promised). He also proposed a "gimmick" to supply Russian grain to countries in difficulty due to the lack of Ukrainian grain: it would be paid for by the Emirates and given to Turkey, which would arrange for its distribution. The proposal seems to have aroused some hilarity among the Africans present. They have called on Putin to reverse his decision, possibly by tightening controls at the UN-Russia-Turkey center in Istanbul, if only to "save face".
Finally, Putin is "scrambling" to avoid another "flop". He can hardly avoid it. Its "African" policy, central to Russia's return to a major global power, will increasingly depend on the presence of the Wagner Group – assuming, but not granted that its boss hasn't gone mad and really decided to move towards Warsaw – as he seems to have told Lukashenko.
THE WEST NEEDS REAL LEADERS
If the West had political leaders of the temper of those who had conquered its empires, Putin's threat to sink ships sailing to and from Ukrainian ports would constitute a major vulnerability for Russia that the West could exploit if Putin persists in his decision. With its prestige and also with the cancellation of part of the debts of the South, it could convince some willing to organize a convoy of ships with the flags of the "Global South" and send it to Ukrainian ports, perhaps with a vote of the UN Assembly asking NATO to protect it. Putin would really make the figure of the "global idiot", as many now believe, with all due respect to the sociologist Orsini. He should sketch it out, covering his back with the usual Medvedev's proclamation of the threat of resorting to nuclear power. Bad for him, he risks only a "prank on the ear" from the ever more impatient Xi Jinping. The thoughtful local strategic "scoundrels" will not be convinced of this and will continue to argue that weapons – including that of wheat – must be silent, to make room for a negotiation of which they "scream" the necessity", but not the preconditions and possible alternative solutions. Only Archbishop Zuppi – who knows that to make peace you need to have studied and understood what war is and its mechanisms – keeps quiet and tries to do everything possible.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/accordo-grano-sud-globale/ on Tue, 25 Jul 2023 09:39:03 +0000.