I’ll explain what Italy risks in the Horn of Africa. Galietti speaks
What is happening in the Horn of Africa? And what are the risks for Italy? Start conversation with Francesco Galietti, founder of the strategic scenarist company Policy Sonar.
One of the old spheres of Italian influence, the Horn of Africa, is in turmoil. Strong tensions between the federal government and Tigray have grown since the regional elections in September, which took place despite the Addis Ababa ban that made them illegal. UN human rights officer Michelle Bachelet has raised a heartfelt alarm about the humanitarian situation in Tigray, which has been isolated for 40 days, the Ethiopian army is preventing the entry of humanitarian workers and journalists.
In that area Italy no longer has much relevance, even if the last noteworthy activity was the construction of a large dam between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia by Salini.
That crisis, however, could soon affect our country and not only due to a new immigration emergency but also due to the mixing of geopolitical influences in the area of the Horn of Africa and in the Mediterranean.
Start Magazine talked about all this with Francesco Galietti, founder of the strategic scenarist company Policy Sonar.
What role is Italy playing in the crisis in the Horn of Africa?
The role of the spectator, for now. In many respects this crisis broadens the range of a whole series of phenomena of which we Italians are spectators such as, for example, the opposition between two powerful Sunni blocs – the bloc of political Islam supported by Qatar and Turkey, and the Saudi Emirati bloc. . Italy on this ridge finds it difficult to move, because it wants to have good relations with everyone. We are no longer speaking only of the Mediterranean, but in a much wider perimeter that includes the Horn of Africa, that is, our former colonies. The picture is complicated a lot because Ethiopia considered itself to be pacified, instead it has an ongoing conflict in the Tigray enclave. Ethiopia has been under Chinese influence for years, half of its sovereign debt is underwritten by the Chinese who have massive infrastructure projects there. In that area there is an important presence of Turks, for now of a commercial nature, and of Russians who have settled in Sudan with troops in uniform. We are therefore witnesses of a Great Game, with more conflicts that overlap: the one inside the Islamic world, which is the same as we have in the Mediterranean, and then we have a game of geo-economic breath that sees China take the field with its pearl string strategy, from Malacca to Djibouti. These are very delicate plans that intersect and Italy is for the moment relegated to the role of mere spectator.
How can Italy get out of the role of spectator? Maybe using soft diplomacy or Catholic-inspired non-governmental organizations?
These organizations, more often than not, are not Italian but Vatican, they have only the language in common but serve a different master. I would say that Italy still has the right to intervene as a peace broker because it has good relations with various actors in that area. It has good relations with Egypt, Ethiopia, Turkey and the Russians, now present in Sudan. Italy can therefore play a role, not as a protagonist but not even a despicable one.
What is the risk if Italy stands by?
The risk is that Italy will remain cut off both from the Mediterranean, which we once called Mare Nostrum, and from the enlarged Mediterranean. On the one hand, it is understandable given the powers at stake, Turkey, China, the Saudi and Emirati blocs. On the other hand, Italy is a commercial power and we cannot pretend that those disorders do not concern us because we are a power devoted to exports. The Horn of Africa is a fundamental link between the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean and the China Sea. Germany has also understood this and has done more than us, while not looking out over the Mediterranean. Unlike us, Berlin has in fact joined the Indo-Pacific club, thus showing that it holds a strategic axis with the democratic powers that are a counterweight to China east of the Suez Canal.
What will be the repercussions in the field of immigration?
If the conflict worsens, we know that migratory flows in North Africa have only a logistic springboard, on that springboard populations fleeing sub-Saharan Africa rise We have a sort of obligation to intervene both to defend our commercial interests and traffic. maritime that must not be slowed down and endangered. Both because if we do not intervene the problem will arise on our coasts with boats full of migrants.
When we find ourselves facing the problem of immigration, how will Italy be able to make its voice heard?
From that point of view Italy has never chosen to assert the status of the external border of the European Union. Italy has chosen a radically different approach from that of Turkey which has chosen to condition the European Union by acting as a stopper and preventing the influx of migrants into Europe through the Balkan routes. Italy has never adopted a policy of this type, it has only verbalized that it is an external border of the EU but has not used any method of conditioning. So I would say that we should inevitably deal with the issue, from a diplomatic point of view, otherwise we will find it at home. We will have to assert our deep knowledge of that territory which has to do with the important infrastructure projects carried out in the recent past.
What could be the position of the United States with the new president-elect regarding this crisis?
It is difficult to understand why different currents that are of the American deep state collide. On the one hand, there is a tendency to disengage, to move away from areas where it is not possible to think of having an expiration date of the engagement and unfortunately the Horn of Africa does not give hope for anything good. On the other hand, there is the fear that disengagement means leaving the field open to those who are already entering, the Chinese but also the Russians. There is a neutral position on Turkey, the US considers Turkey an indispensable component of NATO, the Americans trust in Turkey but not in Erdogan and are probably in a waiting position to understand if Erdogan can be replaced through a physiological electoral rotation. Basically they do not want to force their hand and hope that the Turks will choose a new Head of State.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/vi-spiego-cosa-rischia-litalia-nel-corno-dafrica-parla-galietti/ on Tue, 15 Dec 2020 06:14:31 +0000.