I’ll explain what really happens in Libya
Foreign powers blow up Libya's political leaders. The in-depth analysis by Gianandrea Gaiani for Defense Analysis
In Libya the political leaderships at the head of the two factions that have fought each other in recent years are jumping. For some weeks there have been riots and popular demonstrations in Tripolitania governed by Fayea al Sarraj as in the Cyrenaica of Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni and General Khalifa Haftar with common reasons: the protests were in fact generated by discontent due to economic crisis, lack of services and corruption.
However, it is reasonable to believe that behind these demonstrations lies the will of the external sponsors of the two Libyan factions to pilot the political situation in the two areas in which the country is divided in order to place men who are liked by the reference powers at the top of power: in Tripoli at the axis Turkey-Qatar and Tobruk to the United Arab Emirates-Egypt-Russia alliance.
External interference that is now "institutionalized" after the military developments of the summer that saw Tripoli free itself from the siege of the troops of General Khalifa i Haftar thanks to the weapons and fighters sent by Ankara and supported by Doha funds while the general of Cyrenaica it has consolidated on the front line that runs from Sirte in the desert to the oasis and air base of al-Jufra thanks to the arms of Cairo and Abu Dhabi, to the Mig and to the contractors of Moscow.
As we had hypothesized on these pages, those military developments would have decreed the end of Libyan sovereignty and of the two rival factions.
The first to surrender was the premier of Cyrenaica, al-Thinni (pictured below), in office since 2014 but resigned after just a couple of days of demonstrations against him, perhaps in favor of Ibrahim Buchnaf, Minister of the Interior of the government indicated by many sources as the next premier.
The real protagonist of this controlled crisis, however, is the president of the Parliament of Tobruk, Aguila Saleh, who emerged after the military defeat of Haftar in Tripoli as the strong man of Cyrenaica and above all as the most important political point of reference to whom to entrust the management of the negotiations. for an agreement that could sanction the conclusion of the conflict by giving birth to Libyan institutions "shared" enough to divide the proceeds of oil exports between the two factions, however sanctioning the existence of "two Libya" with different governments and under the influence of the respective sponsors.
If Arabs and Russians look to Saleh (pictured below) as a pillar of Cyrenaica, General Khalifa Haftar certainly does not want to be marginalized and has returned to the fore with new military initiatives despite the demonstrators attacking his headquarters in Benghazi and for the first time there were clashes in his stronghold of Al-Maj.
First of all, Haftar announced that he had reworked a certain number of Scud tactical ballistic missiles that Gaddafi's army had acquired in Moscow (a couple launched them in 1986 against the US Navy station in Lampedusa), weapons that could be hit the Turkish bases in Misrata. The restoration of these weapons may have been carried out only thanks to the Russian technicians who support Haftar's forces and who have already put into service many weapons of Russian and Soviet origin no longer operational inherited from the Gaddafi barracks.
Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) also vanquished an Islamic State militia in the Sebha desert area where the "caliph" of the Islamic State in Libya seems to have been killed.
The LNA spokesman, Colonel Ahmed al Mismari announced that “after receiving information on the movement of a terrorist cell in Sebha, the army came up with a plan to attack the neighborhood where the group was hiding.
The battle lasted seven hours with the killing of nine militiamen and the arrest of two women ”. Al Mismari said: "Abu Abdullah, the new caliph of the Islamic State in Libya, was killed during the operation". The victims of the IS would be four Libyans, two Saudis, two Yemenis and an Australian.
An operation that could bring Haftar closer to the United States, once supporters of the general considered the true enemy of Islamic terrorism in Libya, which recently focused instead on the stabilization of Tripolitania guaranteed by Turkey.
The successful initiatives of the LNA confirm the role of Haftar who among his loyalists (also for affinity and tribal relations) can also count on the probable new premier of Cyrenaica, Ibrahim Buchnaf, also close to Egyptians and Emiratis, confirming how much they were The widespread assessments in Italy and Europe regarding the now inevitable and imminent “liquidation” of Haftar are unfounded.
In Tripolitania, on the other hand, the disagreements within the Government of National Accord (GNA) are certainly not new but have remained almost dormant during a whole year of siege of Tripoli under the attack of Haftar's forces.
That the heavy Turkish influence was making itself felt in a certainly not soft way emerged clearly with the disagreements between Prime Minister al-Sarraj and Interior Minister Fathi Bashaga, a man of the Muslim Brotherhood with many supports in Turkey and Qatar. Popular unrest in Tripolitania has also lit the fuse for a government reshuffle piloted by Ankara and Doha. After removing Bashaga from office, al-Sarraj was forced by Ankara and the Misrata militias loyal to the minister to reinstate him.
For a couple of days there had been rumors of the president's desire to resign from the leadership of the government recognized by the United Nations and many Libyan sources, including those close to the GNA, as well as Russian sources, gave for certain the resignation of al-Sarraj already on the morning of the 16th. September.
Speaking that same evening to the nation on the occasion of the "Martyr's Day", the 89th anniversary of the killing of Omar al Mukhtar (the leader of the resistance against the Italian colonization of Libya, hanged in front of his followers on September 16, 1931 ) al-Sarraj announced his will to resign by the end of October from his position at the top of the GNA he has held since the end of 2015.
"I announce to everyone my sincere desire to transfer my powers to a new executive structure at the latest by the end of October," he said, explaining that he wanted to remain in his post for the handling of current affairs until the handover of power to the new premier.
Resignations therefore welcome to various Libyan factions, including those of Misrata whose aspire to lead Tripolitania, to Turkey and Qatar but apparently also welcomed with satisfaction by the United Nations that had "crowned" al-Sarraj creating the GNA five years ago .
The "interim" special representative of the UN Secretary General, Stephanie Williams (pictured below), yesterday praised what she called "the courageous decision of Fayez al Sarraj". Williams said in a statement that Sarraj's announcement “comes at a turning point in Libya's long-standing crisis, when it is clear that the situation is no longer sustainable.
It is now up to the Libyan parties concerned to fully assume their responsibilities before the Libyan people ”. Williams stressed that the ceasefire declaration and the meetings of Switzerland, Morocco and Egypt are all "an opportunity to restart the fully inclusive intra-Libyan political dialogue, which the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) intends. carry on as soon as possible ".
As for his successor, it is clear that he will be a welcome man in Doha and Ankara. Perhaps Bashaga himself, who, however, is too biased towards the Muslim Brotherhood to obtain broad consensus, or more likely another measurist, the vice president of the GNA Ahmed Maitig, a moderate politician much appreciated also in the United States, Russia, Turkey, Europe and in Italy.
It is no coincidence that in recent days Maitig was in Turkey where he met with Foreign Minister Mehmet Cavusoglu and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar (pictured below), who confirmed that Turkey will continue to provide advice and training assistance in the military and security fields at the GNA.
But Maitig also went to Russia and in recent days in Sochi he met Khalid Haftar one of the two sons of the general (both LNA officers), to fine-tune the details of the imminent reopening of oil production and exports , confirmed this afternoon by the announcement of the LNA commander.
A success that will allow the "two Libya" to collect, sharing them equally, the funds necessary to improve the living conditions of the population and which once again confirms Maitig not only as a reliable interlocutor for all the international protagonists of the Libyan crisis but also the only one, or at least the most authoritative, political exponent of Tripolitania able to dialogue with the enemy.
Haftar's spokesman explained that “our support for Maitig in representing the western region is proof that we are not fighting the Libyans. We opened a dialogue with the representatives of the Libyan tribes and various regions with the participation of Maitig and we reached an agreement on the reopening of the oil fields ”. Al-Misnari (resumed by Agenzia Nova), stressed that a technical committee has been formed to oversee oil revenues and ensure their fair distribution, as the agreement guarantees the re-export of oil from all Libyan ports.
Examining these radical changes in the political scenario of the "two Libya", it is worth highlighting that in these days meetings and consultations have been held between officials of the Turkish and Russian Foreign and Defense ministries to examine the developments of the crises in Libya and Syria.
The departure of al-Thinni and al-Sarraj, obviously piloted from the outside, could therefore favor a new composition of the Presidential Council capable of bringing together all the parties and calling elections: an initiative that would allow Turks and Russians to offer to the international community the stabilization of the former Italian colony by consolidating at the same time the respective areas of influence with economic penetration and military bases.
Italy, by now reduced to the role of passive follower of Turkey in Libya and in the Eastern Mediterranean, appears to be totally foreign to these political and strategic developments.
The only Libyan story that sees Rome as the protagonist (but this is not good news) is that relating to the 18 Italian and Tunisian fishermen of two Mazara del Vallo fishing boats captured on 4 September in international waters by the patrol boats of the Haftar LNA and detained in prison in Benghazi.
The accusation, as revealed to the Nova News Agency by General Khaled al Mahjoub, a high officer of Haftar's army, is of having entered without authorization the Libyan exclusive fishing zone (declared unilaterally and arbitrarily by Muammar Gaddafi in 2005 for an extension of up to 74 miles from the coast).
Apparently the Libyans do not intend to release the fishermen until Rome releases four "footballers" in prison in Italy for trafficking in illegal immigrants.
The Farnesina has denounced the blackmail to which it does not seem to want to bend and tries to unblock the situation by putting pressure on the president of the parliament of Tobruk Saleh and on Haftar's allies, namely the Russians, Egyptians and Emiratis so that they can work to unblock the situation.
However, the impression is that Tobruk's blackmail is only a ploy by Haftar first of all to "punish" Italy for its subjection to Turkey but perhaps also for having marginalized it from political dialogue by preferring Saleh, to which Minister Luigi Di Maio has visited, without meeting Haftar, in conjunction with the seizure of the two fishing boats.
After all, Haftar has never lost an opportunity to attack Italy and in this case seems to have taken the opportunity to ridicule the government of Rome, now a real appearance in Libyan events.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/vi-spiego-cosa-succede-davvero-in-libia/ on Mon, 21 Sep 2020 07:11:18 +0000.