I’ll explain what will happen to Draghi, Salvini, Meloni, Letta and Di Maio after Mattarella’s encore
First effects and scenarios on political parties and leaders after the re-election of Mattarella at the Quirinale. The comment of Lodovico Festa
“Draghi or chaos”, wrote Giulio Sapelli and myself . In the election of the President of the Republic chaos has won. While ruled in the face of a bewildered public opinion, but not addressed.
The central part of the establishment (divided between "leaders" who ask "only" a postponement of the return of "politics" and "radicals" who somehow would like to get rid of this annoying function) and the parliamentary area of the loaf are decisive. the instinct, made desperate by the darkness of politics, to keep a year's allowance and / or to have the time necessary to try to be re-elected.
Crucial, to prevent an even more devastating crisis, the Catholic world is still the true glue of Italy, even without having assimilated the lesson of Camillo Ruini who asked the faithful to find common ground to be able to divide between conservatives and social democrats. Catholicism in these days in parliament has still spoken a Christian Democrat language with a glorious past but uprooted and therefore first and foremost an instrument of the "pagnottisti".
Public opinion does well to appreciate the sacrifice imposed on Sergio Mattarella to continue to play his role, but should reflect on how "burying" the problems with the re-election of Giorgio Napolitano in 2013 made the situation worse. Also because the mistake of Napolitano and Mattarella is homologous: having faced the various emergencies trying to suspend politics instead of using presidential powers to give it back that centrality that only the popular vote can attribute to it. Mattarella's election keeps the fire under control. We hope you know how to remove the source of the flames.
For the moment, Mario Draghi, who knew he had to exercise a role of guarantee from the Quirinale to allow a return of politics, has weakened, and instead he found himself facing the establishment-pagnottisti coalition. Already from his first statements it is clear that he will now operate using the atomic bomb: either you line up or I'll leave. At least until October when the pagnottisti will have to prepare for an electoral campaign, alas it cannot be postponed.
Giorgia Meloni has saved her consistency, but the policy of mischief with Matteo Salvini risks isolating her.
Salvini is in his fifth defeat (in addition to the Quirinale, the crisis of August 2019, the campaign for the Emilia regionals, for the Tuscans and the selection of the candidate for mayor of Milan): his basic flaw is always to put the word before thought, propaganda to political initiative. Do you still have room for recovery? Mah.
Silvio Berlusconi with a surreal campaign for the Quirinale and directing the vote to Elisabetta Casellati has broken up Forza Italia. Finally, he turned the end of his dreams into a grudge against his allies by devastating the most precious thing he had built in 1994, a conservative camp that made political power in Italy contestable.
Matteo Renzi caught Berlusconi, nominated Draghi, supported Pierferdinando Casini and finally threw himself on Mattarella. A perfect coach fly. But also a true leader of the crafty pagnottisti.
Enrico Letta boasts his victory. Mah. He tried to elect Draghi according to a decent reformist plan probably not his own (perhaps by Emamnuel Macron). He couldn't even really talk about it with his folks. Then he surrendered to the one role he had as a guard dog for pagnatists and establishments.
Giuseppe Conte and Luigi Di Maio moved without any vision, confirming the transformation of the 5 stars from moral protest crusaders into loaf cruise passengers.
What will happen having wasted the reformist opportunity Draghi at the Quirinale ?
The "centrist" pagnottisti have in mind to swamp Italian politics forever with a return to the proportional system that would cancel the only crude but effective "material" reform of the Constitution which through a majority electoral system allowed citizens to vote for a government not only for a party.
On the left, we can always hope that a leader with some principle (Stefano Bonaccini?) Will arrive that will allow us to overcome the only function that the Democratic Party now exercises, the aforementioned one of guard dog of various national and foreign establishments.
On the right, perhaps the new European scenarios with a growing shift to the right of the popular (from Friedrich Merz to Valérie Pècresse, from Isabella Diaz Ayuso to Roberta Metsola) will allow the leaguers to connect with what remains of Forza Italia on the right, and enter the EPP .
Perhaps if some vocation to complex thinking returns, one could also think of a Constituent Assembly that addresses the institutional issues in the field with a systemic logic, not with the slogans of the adventurer Renzi.
The excess of "maybe" "maybe" "hopefully" "mah" in this article reveals how optimistic he personally is.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/vi-spiego-cosa-succedera-a-draghi-salvini-meloni-letta-e-di-maio-dopo-il-bis-di-mattarella/ on Sun, 30 Jan 2022 09:09:35 +0000.