I’ll tell you who and how he torpedoed Mustier in Unicredit
Why will Mustier leave Unicredit ahead of time? The comment by Mario Seminerio, editor of the blog Phastidio.net
Eventually, the siege of Jean-Pierre Mustier achieved its goal. The French banker leaves the leadership of Unicredit, at the latest at the end of the mandate, in April next year but obviously sooner, if the board of directors of the bank finds a way to find a head of the company that suits the ECB and the Italian government, in particular to Mef. The object of the dispute is the purchase of MPS by the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti, for which the Treasury is preparing a very respectable dowry. But from here on out, it's pitch black.
Mustier officially leaves because he believes that his business plan, Team 2023, no longer has the support of the board. In fact, the Frenchman has repeatedly said that he is not interested in MPS and, more generally, in acquisitions, and instead is aiming for organic growth, with the distribution of dividends and repurchase of own shares. Sincerity? Tactics?
The MPS dossier remains problematic. In the context of the aggregation movement of Italian banks, the Treasury needs to find a buyer for Siena. The problem is that Siena needs, before that, a new capital increase to fill the hole caused by the split of the non-performing loans sold to Amcp, as well as the management of the abnormal legal dispute accumulated so far and the inevitable post-sale redundancies.
THE COST OF MPS
As I have already had the opportunity to point out, for the Italian taxpayers the cost of settling Mps will become very similar to that for the arrangement of the remains of the two Venetian banks which collapsed years ago, the pulp of which was sold to Intesa Sanpaolo. So let us ask ourselves, with the usual rhetorical question, if it was worth it to make fire and flames in Europe to obtain an unlikely precautionary recapitalization of Siena, if this is the final bill.
Warning: this is the final bill but only if we are lucky. That is, if Mps is finally assigned to a buyer, and the blessed stop-loss will be triggered for Italian taxpayers. Instead, the wound may continue to bleed and the infection spread to the buyer. And here we come to Unicredit.
Perhaps the bank's board of directors, whose shareholding structure makes it very similar to a public company, is actually dissatisfied with the generation of value produced so far by Mustier. Perhaps the Godot of the marriage with another European bank is awaited, and the barrage of Italian politics and trade union has so far held back the French, creating dissatisfaction in the council.
Or in the council there is a strong representation of subjects sensitive to national needs and the appointment as president of Pier Carlo Padoan, the architect of the precautionary recapitalization of MPS, goes in this direction.
M5S, DO WE HAVE A BANK?
Well, so what? So, let's assume that there is (there is, rest assured) a national plan for Unicredit, aimed at preventing not only its marriage with a large European bank but also the separation of Italian activities from European ones, because it is seen as a prodromal to the withdrawal from our country. . We therefore assume that this national plan envisages marriage with MPS as a first step.
The problem is that, in the government majority, the M5S has decided to "have a bank", making Monte a mythological public bank to be aggregated halfway with Popolare Bari and thus become a joyful war machine of credit for friends and acquaintances, that is to do exactly what the two banks have done in the past but this time with a public rather than a private hat. For the other half of the Sienese centaur, marriage with Amco is expected to become the system monatto. Fascinating, don't you think?
If this is the pentastellato objective, it is clear that Roberto Gualtieri's attempt to build bridges of gold for the Monte buyer is destined to run aground, like the credits. Not surprisingly, the grillini are firing amendments to limit the use of deferred tax assets to 500 million to be transformed into a tax credit, the dowry for Unicredit or whoever for it. Not only that: another five-star amendment plans to convert the DTA into capital, to strengthen the state's hold and recapitalize through the back door.
Okay, so what? So, let's assume that Unicredit, after having expelled the French, becomes a bank more sensitive to the needs of the Italian system and accepts to take MPS under less shabby (and excerpted) conditions. A patriotic effort, let's say. Even admitting that the problem of legal disputes remains standing, as well as that of redundancies, and trying to keep the grillini calm, perhaps transforming itself into a "federal bank", able to leave autonomy, armchairs, folding seats and structure costs in Siena and surroundings.
NO TRIP TO MACRON HOUSE
Oh, I forgot: in case of conversion to system patriotism, Unicredit could put the hypotheses of reduction of the workforce into the drawer, including those due to physiological turnover and technological innovation. Those that, in Italian-led banks, take place in relative tranquility but which in Mustier's case cause the revolt of union leaders who threaten to go and protest under Emmanuel Macron's windows, at the Elysée, while remaining serious.
What would happen? It would happen that we would see a weakened and infected Unicredit by one of the historic buboes of this country. It would happen that the red thread of the deterioration of the system would advance inexorably. It would happen that, this time, given the international situation, Unicredit would not be able to do as Alessandro Profumo did to manage the incorporation of Capitalia, in 2007: to create monstrous profits and profitability by exploiting the global bubble and that of Eastern Europe in particular, achieving a Martian return on equity, of those who then fell back to earth causing victims.
In this round there are no credit bubbles with which to absorb radioactive but politically expendable prey on the domestic stage, so called briskly.
After having expelled the franzoso and perhaps bought Siena with a generous participation in the system effort, we believe that Unicredit will be able to enjoy a clear and invigorating improvement of its image in the domestic press. Do you want to put, the benefit?
The great and unsolved mystery remains: but how is it that the French and Germans usually make a system without shooting each other on the feet and other anatomical parts, unlike us? Ah, to know.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/vi-racconto-chi-e-come-ha-silurato-mustier-in-unicredit/ on Sat, 05 Dec 2020 05:53:43 +0000.