I’ll tell you why the West hasn’t sent fighters to Ukraine yet. General Camporini speaks
From the announcement by the Russian president of the suspension of the New Start treaty, to the position of the United States on the supply of F-16s to Kiev, up to the Italian fighter dossier. Conversation of Starmag with General Vincenzo Camporini, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force and Defense, current scientific adviser of the IAI
Putin has suspended Russia's participation in the New Start nuclear weapons treaty with the United States.
In his message to the nation, yesterday the Russian president announced the decision to suspend but stressed that Moscow "is not leaving the Treaty". The New Start limits each country to no more than 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 missiles deployed. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Putin's decision "deeply unfortunate and irresponsible". The day before, President Biden had met his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky, in Kiev on Monday, stating in a press conference that the United States will support Ukraine "for as long as necessary".
But so far the White House has ruled out sending F-16 fighters, despite repeated requests from Ukraine. However, Zelensky said on Monday that he had discussed with Biden the possibility of the United States sending more weapons.
Meanwhile, again yesterday, the US president assured in his speech in front of the Royal Castle in Warsaw that "Ukraine will never, never be defeated by Russia". "The autocrats must not be satisfied, they must be fought," he added.
The two leaders' speeches come just days before the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Finally, from Kiev, Prime Minister Meloni reiterated "Italy's full support in the face of Russian aggression, Italy does not intend to waver and will not". But he ruled out sending fighter planes.
What will happen now?
Startmag asked General Vincenzo Camporini, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force and Defense and scientific advisor of the IAI.
In response to Putin's announcement to suspend Moscow's participation in the only remaining nuclear weapons treaty with the United States, Stoltenberg warned that "the entire arms control architecture has been dismantled." The Russian move is raising tensions to a level not seen since the Cold War. What should we expect?
Stoltenberg's statements seem to me a little above what happened. In the sense that the arms control system was severely amputated when the CFE, the treaty on arms control of Europe, was renounced. Putin's announcement certainly has a concrete value, but more political than anything else. From what I can imagine, the suspension of the treaty mainly means that the forms of control through inspection teams that the two countries have committed to allow for the verification of the Treaty will no longer be implemented. It is the suspension of some activities that does not in itself mean that the number of warheads and the level of readiness has changed in some way. It is a very heavy act, but I repeat it has more political than practical value.
As a countermove, could the US once again raise the level of military assistance to Kiev, thus authorizing the supply of F-16 fighters?
I doubt it, I doubt there could be such a correlation. What the Americans are doing now, and with them the other Western countries including Italy, is to make available everything available so that the Ukrainians are able to counter Russian aggression. But we are talking about means that, for now, do not include combat aircraft. We are talking about it these days but we must not forget that Western combat aircraft require, in order to be used optimally, a high level of training which cannot be achieved in a few weeks. It takes a very long time. We must also consider that it is not just a question of training the pilots – perhaps the easiest aspect – but also of training all the teams and technical assistants who prepare the aircraft for their missions.
According to a rough estimate, for each hour of flight it takes about 50 man-hours to get the airplane in the air. It is a question of having the pilots trained not so much, but the whole team of specialists who have to prepare the vehicles for their missions. It takes a long time that is not compatible with Ukraine's immediate needs.
Would sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine actually be a game changer in the conflict?
It depends on the role you want to assign to these aircraft. If the main role should be that of close support to the troops on the ground, it is clear that an effective air campaign in this direction can actually change the ratio of forces between the combatants, thus being decisive for the outcome of the ground combats. Given that so far the West has never allowed the sending of weapon systems with a range capable of threatening Russian territory, I doubt that this authorization is granted with the sending of fighters. I don't think it would change much.
This red line is a limit that the West has set itself to avoid validating the Russian thesis of being attacked, which obviously has no basis in reality.
As far as Italy is concerned, a few days after the approval of the sixth aid decree, the government is already working on the seventh decree. Meloni declared that "at the moment the sending of planes is not on the table, it is a decision to be made with international partners".
Both for the considerations made so far, and for the fact that the endowments of our air force are such as not to allow the availability of adequate means to supply to the Ukrainian armed forces. The aircraft we have in service are below what we need to ensure the defense of our skies. The decommissioned vehicles that can be reconfigured to be used would require work that is not compatible with the timing of the conflict.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/vi-spiego-perche-italia-non-inviera-caccia-parla-il-generale-camporini/ on Wed, 22 Feb 2023 08:39:39 +0000.