Is Salvini’s movement really good for the League?

1 November 20222 years ago babelfish

Purposes and risks of Salvini's movement activism. Polillo's comment

Apparently, Matteo Salvini , the more he gets excited, the more the League loses support. The latest surveys by Nando Pagnoncelli, from the pages of Il corriere della sera, are merciless. In the last week alone, the Brothers of Italy would have gained 3.8 percentage points on the votes of the Chamber, reaching 29.8 per cent; while the Lega would have lost 0.8 percent and Forza Italia even 2 percent. The gap, therefore, between Giorgia Meloni's party and her two riotous allies increases by 5.8 points. If we were in the role of the "captain", we would do a little thought about what is happening.

The element of concern is given not so much by this latest survey, as by the succession of data that has dragged on from 2017 to today. Data that the “Political Thermometer” projections have long made available to all policy analysts. In the graphic representation of the weekly polls, some dates are particularly significant. In December 2017, Lega and Forza Italia were head to head, with a difference, in favor of the second formation, of a couple of points. Distance that will be maintained until the eve of the 2018 elections, only to be denied by the final results. Which will see the Lega as the first center-right party, ready to take flight in the yellow – green government.

That first government experience of a League, now emancipated from the embrace of Forza Italia, will bring luck to Matteo Salvini. Engaged as ever in the hunt against illegal immigrants, from the fort of the Viminale. In this aided by the succession of errors of the 5 stars: absolute beginner in the exercise of the delicate function of governance. In less than a year, the consensus in favor of the League, spreading, reached, with the European elections of 26 May 2019, 34.3 percent of the votes. Confining Forza Italiana in a limited space (8.8 percent) and leaving Fratelli d'Italia, still out of the big game, with a percentage of 6.4 percent. And it wasn't over. On July 1 of the same year, polls indicated 37.5 percent of the votes for the League. The top, before the reversal of the cycle.

Even today it is difficult to understand the reason for that change in the deep moods of the Italian electorate. The only certainty, visible ex post, is the rethinking. As if the results of the previous elections had been a kind of raptus, and that the inevitable disenchantment would follow from falling in love with the moment. A slow but continuous and systematic exit. The graphic projections, built on the individual values of the consents expressed, starting from early November 2019, are represented by a negatively inclined line, week after week. Therefore, not a sudden flaw, but a slow bradyseism up to the last electoral results. And even further down.

What went wrong? Probably – at least this is our interpretation – a certain cultural immobility, even before political. It is one thing to direct a party of 12 percent, another is to be at the head of a formation that weighs, for 34 percent, on the electoral alignment. Political communication therefore had to change. How that of the Brothers of Italy has progressively changed, especially Giorgia Meloni . And instead everything has remained as before. Almost. Risk that the coalition as a whole should, today, avoid like the plague.

There are many themes in which continuism was dominant. Starting with foreign policy, where the differences are real. On the one hand, Giorgia Meloni's “no ifs and buts” Atlanticism, on the other, the competitive doubts between the Lega and Forza Italia. In the explanations of vote to the Senate, Massimiliano Romeo , on behalf of the League, invited the Prime Minister to "set up a speech of peace negotiations". Being convinced that "the will of the Ukrainians must be respected, but it would be better to say that the international community will decide in the interest of Ukraine". Provided that, one cannot help but add, there is someone able to define, from the outside, what that interest should be.

Immediate response from Silvio Berlusconi , in the interview granted to Bruno Vespa, for his latest book: no more weapons for Zelensky , but a great investment plan to rebuild the areas destroyed by the war. Then a referendum, with Western control, on the fate of the Donbass . With Crimea definitively assigned to Russia. What about the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions? Objection from Bruno Vespa. No hint. Like no comment on the fact that such a proposal would directly lead to the unilateral end of the sanctions, without any concrete commitment on the part of Putin. When it is the latter who should demonstrate a real willingness to negotiate. By carrying out the necessary preliminary acts.

Deep diversity, as you can see. Inevitably destined to open other fronts. And here is the story of cash, the idea of freezing part of the citizen's income for six months in order to recover the necessary resources for 102 on the pension front. Then the forcing on Covid , to finally reach the new initiatives for the Messina bridge. In this jumble of initiatives there is an evident desire to disregard respect for the times. Essential to have a more organic framework available, in which to highlight the extent of the available resources, on the basis of which to select the individual programmatic priorities.

In short, a communicative movement, on the one hand; the cautious steps of a government that wants to have the entire legislature as its horizon. This, at least, is the message that can be gleaned from Giorgia Meloni's speech in her programmatic speech a few days ago. Message that the same opposition did not want to understand. But, in that case it was precisely the opponents. In the others, however, allies. Or not?

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/il-movimentismo-di-salvini-fa-davvero-bene-alla-lega/ on Tue, 01 Nov 2022 08:18:03 +0000.