Kaliningrad, what happens between Lithuania and Russia
Lithuania, in line with the sanctions imposed by the EU on Moscow, has suspended the transit through its territory of some goods bound for Kaliningrad. The threats from the Kremlin did not take long to arrive and the fear of an escalation that would involve NATO is growing. Facts and analyzes
Since midnight on Saturday 18 June, on the basis of the European Union sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine, the national railway company of Lithuania has suspended the transit of some goods between Belarus and the Russian enclave on its territory. of Kaliningrad.
Now Moscow threatens to take actions in the name of its national interest, awakening fears of a dangerous escalation that would lead to NATO involvement.
WHAT HAPPENED IN LITHUANIA
Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave about 1,300 km from Moscow, with access to the Baltic Sea, located between Poland and Lithuania – two NATO countries -, since last Saturday has returned to ignite tensions between Russia and Europe.
In fact, Lithuania, in line with the sanctions imposed on Moscow, has blocked the transfer by rail of goods subject to restrictions. These include metals, coal, building materials and technological tools.
THE RESPONSE OF RUSSIA …
Russia immediately took the ball to threaten Europe and NATO. Yesterday, Andrei Klimov, the vice-president of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Federal Council, the Russian upper house, wrote on Telegram that it is an "unacceptable behavior" that "endangers the entire political-military bloc" of NATO. Klimov added that, if the European Union does not intervene, Moscow "will have a free hand to resolve the issue of transit by any means" in the name of self-defense.
There was also the intervention of the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergej Lavrov, who said that if the blockade is not removed, the country reserves the right to take actions in the name of its national interest.
Even Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, according to the latest agencies reporting Ria Novosti , declared that the security of the Russian borders "must be strengthened taking into account the new threats, including the possible entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO".
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, called the blocking of goods, as well as the sanctions, “illegal” and added: “The situation is more than serious and requires a thorough analysis before any measures or decisions are taken. The in-depth analysis will be conducted in the next few days, the opinions of various agencies will be collected and inter-agency meetings will be organized in order to reach a common position ".
… AND OF THE EU
"The sanctions have introduced restrictions on certain goods but also transit through the EU: Member States, such as Lithuania, are implementing the sanctions they have themselves established", was the response of a spokesman for the European Commission quoted by Ansa .
From Vilnius, worried like other Baltic countries about becoming the Kremlin's next target, the authorities responded with a note reported by Agi : "The transport of passengers and goods not subject to the EU sanctions regime to and from the Kaliningrad region continues through the territory of Lithuania. Lithuania has not imposed unilateral, individual or additional restrictions on this transit ”.
The EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell , also spoke in defense of Vilnius: “The land transit between Kaliningrad and other parts of Russia is still open. So first, there is no blockade, the land transit between Kaliningrad and other parts of Russia has not been blocked. The second element is that the transit of non-sanctioned passengers and goods continues. Third, Lithuania has not taken any unilateral national restrictions and only applies EU sanctions. The accusation that Lithuania is applying national sanctions is therefore false and pure propaganda. There are no unilateral restrictions imposed by Lithuania ”.
ESCALATION RISK
Of the many provocations by Moscow in response to actions that it deems illegal, this one is more worrying because it could trigger a reaction with no return.
For Russia, in fact, Limes observes, "the Kaliningrad embargo is not like preventing Russia from exporting", but "it is equivalent to isolating a piece of Russian territory from the rest of the Federation […] Above all, they interpret it as part of the growing siege of the exclave, of which the candidacy of Sweden and Finland to NATO is an integral part ”.
“With the Kaliningrad embargo – reads the analysis of the geopolitics magazine – Lithuania offers Russia a perfect excuse to raise the stakes with NATO. The Moscow government could explain that it cannot supply the exclave by sea for technical reasons and that it has no choice but to do so by air. Doing so would violate the skies of Lithuania, a member of the Atlantic Pact. The alliance would be embarrassed to choose whether to define it as an invasion or to leave such a blatant provocation unpunished to one of its members ".
Moscow could thus begin the conquest of the Suwalki corridor, a 104 km border between Lithuania and Poland, also defined by analysts as “NATO's Achilles heel” . The prelude for Russia, Limes observes, “to give territorial continuity to the Russian sphere of influence between Kaliningrad and the motherland via Belarus. And above all to isolate the three Baltic republics from the rest of NATO ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/kaliningrad-che-cosa-succede-fra-lituania-e-russia/ on Tue, 21 Jun 2022 12:52:39 +0000.