Layoffs, markets and state panettone
The pendulum of marketism (copyright Tremonti) has run out of steam. But it will be difficult to return to the state panettone. Also in this case, to quote Draghi, we are in “terra incognite”. Great imagination will be needed, but also as much rigor. Polillo's comment
Let's face it, it was quite easy for Maurizio Landini to counter Carlo Cottarelli yesterday, during Lucia Annunziata's show “Half an hour more”. The two protagonists are too different. On the one hand, the head of the CGIL used to the rough confrontation of the trade union struggle. On the other, a scholar who, at most, measures himself against the buzz of a university classroom. Inevitable the different yield in the television comparison. With Cottarelli often made it impossible to respond in the face of the impetuousness of the former.
These elements undoubtedly weighed, also because Landini managed to conquer more space for intervention. And knock on some aspects that, apparently, not only brought water to his mill, but, in some way, were endowed with their own intrinsic strength. The figure of the dispute was that of the freezing of layoffs which, as is well known, has been extended. For industry and construction it will arrive until the end of June, while for workers covered by the instruments in derogation (especially the tertiary sector) it will arrive until 31 October.
Upstream, a complicated story. Initially, Minister Orlando had proposed to extend the first period by two months, bringing it to August 28. But Confindustria was strongly opposed. The intervention of the Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, was therefore necessary to settle the question. Even in the first case, there would have been a freeze on layoffs until the end of the year. But, on the other hand, the companies would not have paid the additional contributions required by the relevant legislation.
The unequal treatment, however, remained and had to be explained in some way. The task fell to Cottarelli. And it was not an easy task, considering that firing staff is never something that is done with a light heart. The explanation given is logical. The freeze on layoffs could not last indefinitely. Such a measure, in fact, would have hibernated the economy, freezing any evolutionary process. At a certain point, therefore, it was necessary to return to a new-found normality.
Yes but when? When the economy – an economist response – would show signs of recovery. Was this the prospect? Cottarelli's attempt to give a minimum of hope. The most recent data suggest an important turning point in the great system equilibrium. The forecasts are oriented towards optimism. Opinion polls indicate a renewed climate of confidence among economic operators and households. Industrial production figures are positive. In short, according to Cottarelli but not only, the turning point has already been there. Given that the economy could grow even more than the government estimates.
Landini does not contest the diagnosis of his interlocutor. Indeed, in some way, it supports it. With a reasoning that has its own logic. If the worst is over – this is his counter-argument – why speed up? It would have been better to accept Orlando's proposal: to grant a truce of another 60 days to bring about the reform of the social safety nets. And then address the issue of productive reconversion, offering the necessary guarantees. A dutiful choice, considering what the workers had done to keep the entire country on its feet during the darkest days of the pandemic. Speech in many ways flawless.
Which, however, did not convince us. And not because it is not right to celebrate work as an authentic force of this country. Strength that deserves respect. But for the contradictions of a political reality that Landini deliberately neglects. Also in this case the problem is that of continuity or discontinuity between Count two and the current government. A theme that fascinates above all the exegetes of the former, in the continuous search for evidence of the conspiracy that would have led to the premature end of the people's advocate.
The Ministry of Labor and Social Policies had been presided, since 1 June 2018, by members of the 5 stars, first in the people of Luigi Di Maio and then Nunzia Cataldo. Especially during the Conte bis, the new government coalition would have had no qualms. He could easily have dealt with the reform of the social safety nets, instead of focusing, for example, almost obsessively on the citizen's salary. Workhorse of both ministers. The union itself could have pressed, instead of staying at the window, in the face of government inertia.
And, instead, nothing to do. No demonstrations in Piazza Montecitorio. No solemn declaration in favor of the work. But full harmony with the "friendly government". Except that if that reform did not take shape in the almost three years, which are behind the Draghi government, could it be cooked and eaten in the 60-day extension proposed by Minister Orlando? Hard to believe. It is true: the minister himself had explicitly referred to it. But that move seemed, from the start, a simple excuse to justify the extension.
Orlando still has the opportunity to prove otherwise. Get busy in presenting the reform proposals. The pressure that the union will be able to exert will in any case be a good encouragement, after the complicated one living through. But as regards the debate on Keynes, Piketty and so on, which also accompanied the broadcast, perhaps the pendulum of marketism (copyright by Giulio Tremonti) has run out of steam. But it will be difficult to return to panettone and the state car. Also in this case, to quote Draghi, we are in “terra incognite”. It will therefore take great imagination, but also as much rigor.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/licenziamenti-mercatismo-e-panettoni-di-stato/ on Mon, 31 May 2021 07:42:20 +0000.