Mef and Unicredit pass the Mps bubo to Draghi. Here because
Mps dossier between the Ministry of Economy and Unicredit. Facts, numbers, rumors and scenarios
The ball passes to Palazzo Chigi: this is the true state of the art of the Mps dossier after the stalled negotiations between the Ministry of Economy (shareholder with 68% of Monte dei Paschi di Siena) and Unicredit.
The positions of the two parties were too distant and the conditions that Unicredit had given themselves were too stringent and the same Ministry of the Treasury that of the bank of Siena found itself a shareholder with 64% after having prevented its default, Corriere della Sera wrote today. But is it really like that or both parties – first of all Unicredit – do I want to pass the final scrutiny of Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who so far – according to Startmag rumors – has blissfully refrained from taking over the dossier? This is the question that many insiders ask themselves, even if they are quite informed about the dossier.
REUTERS INDISCRIPTIONS ON MEF AND UNICREDIT
But what has happened in the last few days? The negotiation – according to what was revealed last night by the Reuters agency – would be about to jump with the distances between the parties that would not have been smoothed out. Several knots that diplomacy at work for months would not be able to solve. One above all is the amount of capital to be injected into the Monte to make the operation with Unicredit easier. Orcel's request for more than 7 billion, less for the Mef which would have calculated – according to rumors – 5 and would not be willing to further weigh on the pockets of taxpayers. Added to this is a new vision on the perimeter to be acquired, with Monte factoring and leasing again in the negotiation, Ansa underlines : “Hence the awareness that the pre-conditions at the end of July would not be achievable”.
DOSSIER NPL
On the other hand, the requests put on the table by Unicredit were clear from the beginning and the margins granted were few right from the start. An essential condition is the zero impact on the capital, but also no legal risk, without NPLs (to be sold to Amco, Sgr del Tesoro), without the product companies (Mps Leasing & Factoring, Mps fiduciaria, MpsCapital services) and without 300 branches with the hypotheses of interest, on a part, of Mediocredito Centrale.
THE EXUBE NODE
Another node is the redundancies: 6-7 thousand people, according to analysts with an estimated cost of up to 1.4 billion to be spent in the face of the increase. Economy Minister Daniele Franco in August at a hearing in the Chamber Finance Committees and stressed that Monte would not be sold off and that it would do everything possible for the Senate to occupy and the territory.
THE CONTRAST BETWEEN MEF AND UNICREDIT ON MPS
the consultants involved in the operation quantify the distance between Mef and Unicredit at about 3 billion, writes Il Sole 24 Ore : "Between tax credits, capital injections and other measures on employees and legal risks, the Mef was willing to pay out a total of 5 billion , while UniCredit was asking for more than 7, net of tax credits of 1.8 billion ”. A difference that Palazzo Chigi will now work on to find the square.
THE SITUATION ON MPS
In this context it must be said that the recapitalization, on which the Dg Comp authorization hangs, has always represented a subordinate option with respect to the merger. A hard tangle to unravel unless the Treasury has another option ready. For Unicredit, the path is different. Orcel was called in to solve the group's business and M&A is a possibility because it can be an accelerator but it is not the only way. Of course, any prey is not lacking both abroad and in Italy. In recent months, the Mps hypothesis has also been accompanied by that on Banco Bpm, always seen on the track for being the architrave of a third pole. But at the moment it seems an unlikely scenario.
THE REPUBLIC ANALYSIS
But what are the differences between the Treasury and Unicredit? "The reluctant buyer, despite having reduced some requests, would still want about 7 billion dowry (plus 2.2 billion tax benefits) to take the better part of MPS, but the Treasury would not want to shell out more than 5, to get rid of the bank of which he has 64% after saving it in 2017 with 5.4 billion ”, wrote the newspaper Repubblica .
THE RUMORS OF THE TREASURE
"There are no conditions to continue the negotiations: Unicredit's requests are too punitive for taxpayers", Roman sources argued to Repubblica , quite close to the buildings in Via XX Settembre, and also opposed because "the conditions set are not respected from the agreement of 29 July "(guidelines which, however, did not indicate the disbursements).
THE NUMBERS OF UNICREDIT
Unicredit would be willing to take over about 60 billion, and based on its internal models it would have expressed a negative valuation of 2 billion of credits, whereas Mps is positive for 6 billion, added the daily of the Gedi group: "Different criteria, which create a first billionaire difference. The other node is the exodus of MPS workers: 2,700 (out of 20,000 total) were already scheduled for exit in the solo plan of the ad Guido Bastianini, the wedding with Unicredit would raise them to about 7,000 ”.
THE MEF'S NEGOTIATIONS WITH BRUSSELS
Whether it is a real or very presumed (as can be seen from this speech by the secretary general of the Fabi) rupture between Mef and Unicredit, many observers are betting that the Treasury should find a plan B, "negotiating with the European Commission and the ECB longer times for privatization. The end date 2021 is not peremptory; further «compensatory measures», ie greater cost savings in the form of redundancies and branch closures, will be discussed with the Competition led by Margrethe Vestager ”, wrote Corriere della Sera .
THE ANALYSIS OF THE SUN 24 HOURS
The deadline for the return to the market of the bank saved with the precautionary recapitalization of 2017 is about to expire – recalls Il Sole 24 Ore – and the negotiations on an extension, which have already been launched informally for weeks, may take a different turn: "For to give Monte Tesoro time to strengthen itself on a road that is still lonely for another stretch, and to seek new perspectives on a longer horizon. This option could prove to be decidedly cheaper for public finance at least in the short term; but that needs a change of register at the Commission's DG Competition, where at the time the green light for the (expensive) public recapitalization of Monte had arrived in exchange for high guarantees on capital and rigid times on reprivatization ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/mef-e-unicredit-passano-il-bubbone-mps-a-draghi-ecco-perche/ on Sun, 24 Oct 2021 09:19:34 +0000.