Mps, all the reckless desires of Monte against Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit
But can Mps really aspire to act as a pivot for a third banking hub against Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit? The balance sheet data would say no, yet newspapers and some analysts gulp high-sounding declarations from the top management of Monte dei Paschi di Siena
Are MPS' third-party desires achievable? Here are facts, numbers and comments.
IL SOLE 24 ORE HEATS MPS
The possibility that Mps could be the next protagonist of banking risk yesterday pushed the shares of the Sienese bank to Piazza Affari. Banca Mps shares rose by 1.55% to 2.294 euros, with a maximum reached at 2.311 euros. A minimal increase that yielded a good chunk of today's Il Sole 24 Ore . On the other hand, according to some observers, the small increase in the stock market is the result of the interview given to Il Sole 24 Ore by the president of the institute, Nicola Maione (on the left in the photo, with the CEO of Mps, Luigi Lovaglio). The manager already at the top of Enav, a company that deals with flight assistance, said that Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is definitively "out of the loop" and can now move in a "proactive" way and be "the pivot" that can create “the third banking pole” behind Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit.
Also today on the Stock Exchange, the MPS share rose by more than 1%. But Teleborsa comments: “The scenario on a weekly basis of Monte Paschi shows a loosening of the curve with respect to the strength expressed by the FTSE MIB. This retreat could make the title subject to sales by operators. The short-term trend of Banca Monte dei Paschi is strengthening with a resistance area seen at 2.357 Euros, while the most immediate support can be glimpsed at 2.311”.
THE COMMENTS ON THE INTERVIEW BY MAIONE
Equita analysts point out that the messages conveyed by Maione are "substantially in line with the recent declarations of the managing director Lovaglio, especially as regards the M&A aspect". In particular, among the main points of the interview they indicate that “Mps today is a bank with excellent capital solidity and in the process of being relaunched in terms of revenues and profits. A possible aggregation would therefore not be linked to reasons of solidity”.
WHAT MAIONE SAID
In particular, Maioli stated that "today Mps no longer needs to join together for reasons of solidity, but instead there are all the conditions to continue to bring out the real value and to look in perspective". Furthermore, the president explained that “our hope is that MPS can be the protagonist in an aggregation with other banks. The Mef has already declared on several occasions that it wants an orderly exit from the capital. Montepaschi, in the right times, can be the pivot to create a third pole behind the two main Italian banks, and be an opportunity to create value for the entire economic system of the country”. Furthermore, the Equita analysts, among the points that emerged in the interview, also point out the fact that the presence of a regulatory obligation has been confirmed which imposes the exit of the State from the shareholding structure of the bank, without however indicating a date". adding that "according to rumors, the agreements established between the Mef and the EU would provide for the exit of the state by 2024".
DO THE MPS DATA BELIEVE THE MONTE'S AMBITIONS?
But the excitement – or presumed excitement – in Piazza Affari over Maione's phantasmagorical interview clashes with some of the financial statements of MPS itself.
Monte dei Paschi di Siena closed the 2022 financial year with a loss of 205 million euros, compared to the profit of 310 million recorded in 2021. The result for the year, which also discounts 180 million in contributions to the Fitd and the The Single Resolution Fund, on the other hand, benefited for 425 million from the revaluation of deferred tax assets ( dta ), in the light of the improvement in the bank's income prospects. Not only that: in 2022 Mps recorded revenues of 3,088 million, up 3.6% on 2021, thanks to the 26% jump in the interest margin, driven by the rise in interest rates, which offset the drop in commissions (-8 %), penalized by market volatility, and the lower result than 2021 of trading activity and income from equity investments.
In short, taxes and rates have contributed to a further collapse of the MPS budget. Not to mention how many millions Mps has cost the treasury over the years: "The cost of the last abundant decade of Montepaschi's history reaches almost 30 billion euros, between capital increases (burned) and public contributions injected", estimated two years ago by Il Sole 24 ore .
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/mps-tutte-le-spericolate-voglie-del-monte-contro-intesa-sanpaolo-e-unicredit/ on Fri, 30 Jun 2023 07:45:46 +0000.