Mps, here’s how Mediobanca and Tesoro push the Monte towards Unicredit
Mps dossier and Unicredit hypotheses: facts, numbers, indiscretions and scenarios
A recapitalization of € 2-2.5 billion to be paid by the State to adequately cover the legal risks and meet the costs of an integration that would involve the departure of around 6,000 employees. In addition to a dowry of deferred tax assets of over 3 billion euros, to be used to save on taxes.
HERE ARE ALL THE LEGAL BOMBS IN THE ACCOUNTS OF MPS
According to what Ansa wrote yesterday, these would be the conditions proposed by the Treasury to Unicredit, which would be evaluating them without having decided anything, to take charge of MPS, in an attempt to find a definitive solution to Siena's problems. None of the parties involved declined to comment on the rumors.
Unicredit reiterated how its CEO, Jean-Pierre Mustier has also recently ruled out any intention to venture into mergers and acquisitions.
WHAT THE SUN 24 ORE HAS WRITTEN
According to Il Sole 24 Ore, the French CEO has not yet received a green light for a Siena operation. Because, it is probable, much if not all depends on the conditions at which the Treasury would confer the bank: "According to financial sources, the last hypothesis would envisage a recapitalization of Monte by the Mef for a sum between 2 and 2.5 billion , one of which is intended to replenish the funds for legal cases and another to cover pre-wedding redundancies, estimated at around 6 thousand units (half of which in Siena). This move, which in any case must overcome non-trivial obstacles in terms of public accounts, would also be accompanied by 3 billion in tax credits. At the end of this process, the MEF would have a 5% stake. Will all this be enough to convince Mustier? We will see. However, it is unlikely that the banker will soon abandon the «No M&A» line ”, the economic-financial newspaper wrote today.
THE QUALITY OF MPS?
To ensure the bank maintains a "cet1 higher than 13%", according to a recent Equita report, Mps would need a dowry of "about 4 billion", a figure that does not include the necessary increase in provisions on legal risks , equal to 600 million out of a petitum of 10 billion ( here the in-depth analysis by Start Magazine on legal cases ). The Treasury would once again pay (the Mef in fact controls the MPS), in an operation that would follow the sale of the Venetian banks (Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca) to Intesa Sanpaolo.
ESTIMATES OF EQUITY
Equita has calculated that, in the face of 2 billion euros of integration costs, the neutrality on equity (Cet 1 pro forma ratio of the new group that would be formed greater than 13%), requires a recapitalization of 4 billion, " but without considering the coverage of legal risks ".
THE CALCULATIONS OF THE ANALYSTS ON MPS AND UNICREDIT
For the Sim – wrote Radiocor – the hypothesis the resources already allocated by the Mef for 1.5 billion are sufficient to proceed with the spinoff of non-performing loans (NPE) to Amco and complete the derisking process, but they may not be sufficient to make the bank even more attractive from an M&A perspective, even assuming an intervention by Unicredit.
WHAT MEDIOBANCA DOES ACCORDING TO CORRIERE DELLA SERA
However, according to Mediobanca – as Corriere della Sera wrote in recent days – whoever merges with MPS will be able to benefit from an "unspoken equity" of 3.6 billion (in technical term "Dta", deferred tax assets), or tax credits linked to the huge losses of the Sienese bank. This is one of the strong points of the Mps dossier carried out by the Treasury, a 68% shareholder, by the advisor Mediobanca and by the institute's CEO, Guido Bastianini.
THE OPTION OF B OF MEDIOBANCA AND TESORO SU MPS
What if the Treasury and Mediobanca plan should fail? Plan B is ready: to convince Brussels of the inevitability of nationalization. Also in this case – wrote Panorama recently – the institute of Piazzetta Cuccia has the right man for a public Monte: Antonio Guglielmi, "Nagel's Roman ambassador", and appreciated by M5s (he had a role in the meeting in 2018 of the then prime minister candidate Luigi Di Maio with the London financial community), but also of the Lega, as well as a candidate by the grillini for the general management of Mef; but he was defeated by the choice of the former Minister of Economy, Giovanni Tria, who promoted Alessandro Rivera to the general direction of the Treasury. And now the duelists collaborate, it seems.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/mps-ecco-come-mediobanca-e-tesoro-spingono-il-monte-verso-unicredit/ on Sun, 01 Nov 2020 10:05:47 +0000.