Nord Stream 2, because Central-Eastern Europe feels abandoned by Biden
Biden's apparent willingness to seek some form of agreement with Germany on doubling the Russian-German pipeline under the Baltic has shattered the cards beyond the Oder-Neisse. Pierluigi Mennitti's analysis of Eastsidereport.info
"Sold out". This is the sentiment that hovers in the capitals of central-eastern Europe towards Joe Biden on the theme of north stream 2. Because depending on whether you look at the question from the Berlin, Moscow or Warsaw-Tallinn-Prague observatory, the perspective changes . The apparent readiness of the new US administration to seek some form of agreement with Germany on doubling the Russian-German pipeline under the Baltic has upset the cards beyond the Oder-Neisse. And it matters little that in Washington's change of course, should it be confirmed by future summit meetings, among which the one between Biden and Merkel set for July, weighs a strong dose of realism. Central-Eastern Europeans, fresh back to Europe and (naively?) Adoring the stars and stripes flag, now feel “sold out”.
This is confirmed by Jakub Janda, director of the European Values Center for Security Policy in Prague, without too many words to the German newspaper Die Welt . "Not only the decision itself, but also the mode of communication was seen as a lack of interest in the region's allies," says Janda. No prior communication, no confidential message was sent from Washington to the Eastern European chancelleries to announce that no economic sanctions would be adopted against the CEO of the company Nord stream 2 Ag, the German Matthias Warnig, an indiscretion relaunched by the Axios information site. The explanations came through an interview with CNN by Andrew Sullivan, Biden's security adviser , and appeared decidedly instrumental: Warnig is German, not Russian.
In Warsaw and its surroundings the disappointment is great for having touched a harsh reality: for the USA, Germany and Russia are more important. The interpretation of the German press is that Washington has realized that the pipeline is now in fact completed and that continuing the wall against the wall would produce no result, other than to poison relations with Berlin. Only an electoral victory by the Greens in the September elections with the ascent of Annalena Baerbock to the chancellery could have yet to reverse the situation. But polls indicate a decline in consensus for ecologists and a government still led by the CDU of Laschet, whose positions on Nord Stream 2 are the same as those of Angela Merkel, seems increasingly probable. It is therefore better to look at reality with pragmatism and try to bring out the best possible result: to negotiate with the Germans conditions that minimize the negative consequences of the project.
In diplomatic circles, economic compensations are hypothesized for Ukraine, which will see a reduction in economic revenues for the heavy taxes on gas in transit from Russia to Europe through its territory and which will be exposed to presumed continuous pressure from Moscow. With the doubling of the channel under the Baltic, Russia will be able to raise its voice with Kiev without compromising supplies to Europe.
In addition, the US is pressing for the introduction of an interruption mechanism for Nord Stream 2, should Russia use gas as an instrument of pressure precisely against Ukraine.
These two points in particular are being discussed between the Sherpas of the two countries. The channels of communication have multiplied, the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited the chancellery on the sidelines of the Conference on Libya in Berlin, where he also discussed at length with his German counterpart Heiko Maas, the Minister of State flew to the USA. Economy Peter Altmaier with a package of proposals to settle the many economic differences: Nord Stream 2 is on the agenda. And it will be even more so when Angela Merkel lands in the US capital on July 15, for what will probably be her last important visit abroad.
Berlin is now certain to find the square of the circle by August, especially since Biden does not seem to mind the initiation of a controlled thaw with Putin. It will be a question of understanding, beyond Ukraine for which the Germans have no problem extending the purse strings, what concessions the Chancellor is ready to make on relations with China.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/nord-stream-2-perche-leuropa-centro-orientale-si-sente-svenduta-da-biden/ on Sun, 27 Jun 2021 05:01:02 +0000.