Nord Stream 2, who celebrates and who mumbles
Facts, comments and analyzes after the Germany-US agreement on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
Wednesday the United States and Germany have found an agreement on Nord Stream 2, the pipeline for natural gas under the Baltic Sea directly linking Russia and Germany historically opposed by America and Ukraine.
WHEN THE DISPUTE ON NORTH STREAM BEGINS 2
The realization, now almost complete, of Nord Stream 2 has been opposing the United States and Germany, two allied countries, for years. At the base of the controversy – which arose under the administration of Barack Obama, to continue with Donald Trump – there is a difference of interpretation.
WHAT GERMANY AND RUSSIA THINK
For Berlin, that is, Nord Stream 2 is a purely commercial project, which will give the country access to cheap supplies of Russian gas with which to replace the more polluting coal plants: they will all have to be decommissioned by 2038. Germany, too, like the rest of the European Union, it has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to zero in 2050.
Moscow speaks of the pipeline in the same terms.
WHY THE UNITED STATES OPPOSE THE PROJECT
Washington, on the other hand, thinks that Nord Stream 2 will not only transport gas, but will be the vehicle for greater Russian influence on Europe, which is already heavily dependent on Moscow for energy supplies. Russia is America's historic adversary : despite the end of the Cold War, mutual hostility has remained and is visible in pro-Russian cyberattacks or electoral interference.
The hostility of the United States to Nord Stream 2 is explained by two other reasons. The first is economic: the increase in Russian gas flows (at affordable prices) to Germany and Europe is an obstacle to American exports of liquefied natural gas to the Old Continent.
The second reason, however, is geopolitical . The United States does not want that, in addition to energy, Germany and Russia can also get close from a political point of view. In order to maintain the favorable status quo in Europe, then, Washington must prevent the development of contacts between the strongest nation on the continent (Germany) and the one hostile to American primacy (Russia).
WHAT THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN BIDEN AND MERKEL MEANS
The agreement reached on Wednesday between Washington and Berlin comes a few days after the meeting in the White House between Angela Merkel and Joe Biden: the two had not hidden their differences regarding Nord Stream 2, but the summit served above all to reaffirm the goodness of the bilateral relationship.
The Biden administration had prepared the ground for the deal with Germany by deciding , in May, to lift sanctions on the Russian company that oversees the pipeline project. He did so for two reasons: because sanctions had proved an ineffective tool to block the works (which are practically completed), and then because Biden needs to have Germany at his side in the challenge to China, perceived as more important than to that to Russia.
In short, the withdrawal of sanctions and yesterday's agreement are concessions that Biden has chosen to make to give breath to the alliance with Germany, which has suffered through Trump's years of unilateralism. However, it does not mean that Biden has put aside hostility to Nord Stream 2: more than a strategic change, we could be witnessing a change of tactics.
POSSIBILITY OF SANCTIONS
The agreement, however, requires Berlin to undertake to impose sanctions against Moscow in the event that the country uses the pipeline to threaten European energy security (blocking gas flows in retaliation, for example) or the stability of countries to the east. of the continent, such as Poland and – above all – Ukraine.
WHAT DO UKRAINE AND POLAND HAVE TO DO
The agreement does not guarantee that Germany will keep its promise, nor that the sanctions that will be issued will really be effective in limiting Moscow's action.
Poland and Ukraine, which fear Russia – which annexed part of Ukraine's territory, Crimea in 2014, and finances separatist rebels at war with Kiev in the east of the country – have criticized the agreement between Washington and Berlin.
Specifically, Warsaw reiterated a position shared by international politics analysts: that is, that Nord Stream 2 will more easily allow Moscow to put pressure on Europe and isolate Ukraine.
The Nord Stream 2, in fact, will directly connect Russia and Germany, bypassing Ukraine. This fact will reduce the value of Kiev as an "energy intermediary" between Russia and Europe, making the country less relevant for Western Europe and favoring its isolation over time.
For its economic sustenance, Ukraine needs Russian gas transit taxes on its territory ( 2.1 billion in 2020), which Nord Stream 2 would however reduce, to zero.
GERMANY'S COMMITMENT TO UKRAINE
The agreement with the United States provides for Germany to appoint a special envoy to Kiev to assist in the negotiations on extending the agreements with Russia on the transit of gas for Ukraine beyond 2024.
In addition to this, Berlin will set up a $ 175 million (initial value) fund to help Ukraine's transition to clean energy; the United States will contribute through investment promotion initiatives. The German government will allocate another 70 million to strengthen the security (including cyber) of Ukrainian energy infrastructures.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/nord-stream-2-accordo-stati-uniti-germania/ on Thu, 22 Jul 2021 13:12:34 +0000.