Not just gas: all energy weapons aimed at the EU
The European Union risks moving from dependence on Russia for gas to dependence on China for green technologies. What Andrea Greco and Giuseppe Oddo write in the new book “The gas weapon” published on 3 October
After the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union began working to reduce Russia's dependence on natural gas – which before the war covered 40 percent of consumption at community level – with the aim of eliminating it by 2027 The total detachment has yet to occur, but the reorientation of energy supplies on the Old Continent can already be considered the end of an era. Who knows if relations will be re-established in the future, if Russia accepts its responsibilities and begins a serious process of democratization: it is impossible to say today.
FROM ONE ADDICTION TO ANOTHER?
Europe is freeing itself from energy-political dependence on Russia, but could find itself in a similar situation compared to China, which dominates the supply chains of raw materials and clean energy devices. On photovoltaic solar, for example – write Andrea Greco and Giuseppe Oddo in their new book, L'arma del gas (Feltrinelli) released on 3 October – "80% of the global industry in the sector is concentrated in the People's Republic of China, equal to a turnover of 30 billion dollars."
CHINA DOMINATES THE SOLAR PANEL SUPPLY CHAIN…
“70% of the world's production of panels and 97% of the world's production of silicon wafers used in solar cells” are found in China, write Greco and Oddo, which “has invested 50 billion dollars in the growth of the sector, ten times more than Europe”. A few weeks ago the European solar industry, represented by SolarPower Europe, raised the alarm : the massive influx of low-cost Chinese solar panels is pushing Europe's companies to the brink of bankruptcy.
… AND THAT OF THE BATTERIES
Beyond photovoltaic devices, China – the two journalists recall – "comes from 80% of rechargeable lithium ion batteries", necessary for electric vehicles and the storage of renewable energy.
The International Energy Agency "estimates that between now and 2040 the number of electric vehicles in circulation could grow twenty-five times with an exponential increase (from thirteen to forty-two times) in global demand for lithium", of which China controls over 65 percent of refining globally.
METAL CONTROL
Beijing is the largest extractor and refiner of almost all metals for batteries (such as manganese, cobalt, graphite and nickel) and rare earths for magnets found in wind turbines and electric cars.
“Many of these critical resources”, we read in L'arma del gas , “are present in Africa, in countries of which China […] is today an important economic-financial partner”, especially in Congo, the country where cobalt deposits are concentrated.
“According to Bloomberg estimates based on official decarbonisation plans, to eliminate net emissions by 2050, 242 million tonnes of critical metals will be needed, almost five times the current quantities, for a value of 10 trillion dollars, with immense quantities of copper, steel and aluminum to almost double the electricity grid on a global scale […]. Being almost completely without them, Europe will depend on imports of critical resources."
Therefore, unless it manages to strengthen internal industrial capabilities and develop alternative supply chains with democratic allies (the United States, Canada and Australia, above all), the European Union could find itself dependent on China, exposing itself to the risk of retaliation. policies on supplies not different from those that Russia has committed several times – already since 2006 , certainly not since 2021-2022 – with the countries of the Old Continent.
“The EU countries”, comment Greco and Oddo, “seem like Renzo's capons kept dangling by their legs, which continue to peck themselves even upside down”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/arma-del-gas/ on Wed, 04 Oct 2023 13:21:36 +0000.