Not only Carige, here are Bper’s next moves
Moves and scenarios on Bper after Carige. Facts, numbers and analyzes (with the hand of the Unipol shareholder). The article by Emanuela Rossi
We have to wait until mid-February to understand more of Carige's future. By that date, in fact, Bper will submit a binding offer to the Interbank Deposit Protection Fund – which since 2019 owns 80% of the Genoese bank, at the time a commissioner – after the niet to the proposal made shortly before Christmas. An operation that incidentally "likes" the CEO Piero Montani, former CEO of Carige: "It would help us to complete the geographical map, Liguria is an important area" he said in a recent interview with La Stampa , underlining that " we have demonstrated, without any possibility of misunderstanding, the will to grow also through external lines and to carry out projects that can benefit the entire Italian banking system ".
In the meantime, the investigating judge of Milan ordered the dismissal of the investigation in which, among others, Carlo Cimbri and Pierluigi Stefanini, managing director and president of Unipol, the first shareholder of the Modenese institute with 20%, were investigated. The investigation developed around the share swap relations approved in the 2013 merger transaction between the Bolognese insurance company and the companies of the Fondiaria-Sai group – Fondiaria-Sai, Milano Assicurazione and Premafin – at the time of the Ligresti family.
THE OFFERS OF BPER AND THE MOVES OF THE INTERBANK FUND
As mentioned, in early January the Fitd decided – after a "comparative" evaluation and discussions with "a considerable number of potentially interested parties" – to give B for an exclusive period of one month to present a binding offer on Carige https://www.startmag.it/economy/perche-le-grandi-banche-daranno-carige-a-bper/ . A time necessary for the bank led by Montani to carry out a due diligence, assisted by its advisors Rothschild and Mediobanca , and then to formalize the final proposal. The chance came after Bper asked for a financial dowry of 530 million against a symbolic payment of 1 euro.
This time the Fund said yes after closing its doors at the end of 2021 . On 21 December, the Modenese bank had issued a note to closed markets in which it asserted that the board of directors had taken note of "the contents of the letter from the Interbank Fund dated 20 December, with which the Fitd deemed the non-binding offer presented to be unacceptable by Bper Banca on 14 December last and having as its object the acquisition of a stake of 88.3%, of which 8.3% held by Cassa Centrale Banca, of the capital of Banca Carige ”. At the time, the request to the Fund to recapitalize was 1 billion. Furthermore, Bper announced the launch of a takeover bid at 80 cents per share on the 11% held by the small Genoese shareholders. The Fitd had then replied in the negative because there is an article in the statute that limits the contributions of the consortium banks to 500 million, which can increase to no more than 700 million, thus remaining far from the billion requested by the Modena bank.
For its part, Bper was able to review its plans because it was certain that it could transform a portion of deferred tax assets into a tax credit, the so-called Dta ( Deferred Tax Asset ), which the Budget Law has extended to 30 June next to a limit of 500 million.
It should be remembered that since 2019, the year in which Fitd entered the capital of Carige with an increase of 700 million, Cassa Centrale Banca also joined the shareholding structure, which purchased 8.3% of the Ligurian bank at a price of 65 million . At the moment, the other groups interested in Carige, namely Crédit Agricole and the Cerberus fund, are still waiting.
WHAT ANALYSTS THINK
According to reports from Ansa, Bper's move on the Genoese bank is also pleasing to analysts. For example, Equita believes that the recapitalization and conversion of tax credits for 320 million should “make it possible to cover the costs of restructuring and integration. The new group would have a Cet 1 ratio of around 13% and an Npe ratio below 5% ". Not only that: “The operation would also be positive for Unipol, Bper's first shareholder”.
Other numbers come from the analysts of Kepler Cheuvreux, according to which the Modenese institute could see its “customer base grow by 20% with the acquisition, exceeding 5 million after the addition of 800,000 customers of Carige. It could exceed 5% of the Italian market in loans and deposits ". In short, “the potential synergies are significant when fully operational, from extra revenues, from a lower cost of financing and from the savings deriving from the merger of the two banks”.
THE “SUPER BPER” OR THIRD POLO
Corriere Economia made some accounts on the pole that could arise from the merger of Bper with Carige by adding the financial data of the two groups as at 30 June last and also those of Popolare Sondrio, of which Bper holds 10% of the capital, which in a second moment could aggregate. Well, the "Super Bper" – or for others the third pole – would reach a total assets of 209.3 million and loans to customers for more than 119 million. Direct deposits would grow to 150.8 million compared to the over 500 million of Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit while employees would be almost 25 thousand in 2,604 branches. Figures that, according to the economic back of the newspaper directed by Luciano Fontana, show how "the road to the third pole is still very long and it will only pass, sooner or later, through the Milanese Piazza Meda, headquarters of Banco Bpm, a bank which alone has assets of 198.5 million euros.
AND POPULAR SONDRIO?
As regards Banca Popolare di Sondrio, it should be remembered that not even a month ago its transformation into a joint-stock company was completed after 150 years of cooperative corporate history. In the meantime, Popolare Sondrio has already for some months already registered the support of Unipol , its main shareholder (9%) and also commercial partner (in Arca Vita and Arca Fondi through Bper). At the beginning of November, CEO Cimbri said: “With Sondrio we can do much more even just with the distribution of insurance products. The choices are made by the bank, so if the bank wants to grow through combinations we will evaluate with them if we can support them. If, on the other hand, it wants to remain in its current configuration, we will be satisfied ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/non-solo-carige-ecco-le-prossime-mosse-di-bper/ on Sun, 23 Jan 2022 16:30:30 +0000.