Not only Ukraine, all the commercial love affairs between Russia and China
What China doesn't say about Ukraine and why Beijing is very loving to Russia. Facts and analysis
China has not condemned the war launched by Vladimir Putin 's Russia against Ukraine. At the moment. He does not want to displease his friend Putin , with whom he had been collaborating for some time to build a new global order and to assign himself the role of leading actor. But in doing so in the midst of a Putin-induced crisis, Xi Jinping has exposed himself to repercussions and an immediate cost that China cannot afford. This is why he is struggling in a difficult diplomatic game, while he has recently controlled the Kiev Stock Exchange .
Embarrassment on the Donbas
The spokesman for the Beijing Foreign Ministry, Hua Chunying , in a briefing with reporters, confirms that China is following the evolution of events "urging all parties to exercise restraint to prevent the situation from getting out of control". It does not want to oppose Russia, a friendly country with which it shares some interests and positions, such as opposition to the enlargement of NATO, the United States and its allies. Li Xin , director of the Institute of European and Asian Studies at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, argues that the West forced Russia to act. "On the one hand, we respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, but on the other hand we must consider the historical process of the situation in which Russia was cornered and forced to fight back."
Russian invasion, Beijing plays with words
But even Beijing does not want to appear in favor of an invasion of Ukraine. Which, in fact, he denies is in progress: the events in Ukraine are not described as an "invasion". For Beijing it is "a preconceived use of words". Beijing – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Thursday as Moscow attacked Ukraine – "understands Russia's reasonable security concerns."
Eyes on the effectiveness of the Western reaction
However, the embarrassment is evident. Putin forces Xi to play a delicate diplomatic balancing act. The two countries are friends, but theirs is more a marriage of interest. For Marc Julienne , head of Asian studies at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) " the Ukrainian conflict is an absolutely Russian conflict , there is no alignment between Moscow and Beijing or cooperation on what Putin should do in Ukraine". Russia expects political support from China. For Beijing it is very problematic to offer it. "On the other hand, China and Russia are very interested in seeing how the United States and Europeans will really react."
No annexation, but no expansion of Westerners to the east
While China did not condemn Russia's decision to recognize separatist regions in Ukraine and send troops, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said over the weekend that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each country "should be respected and safeguarded ”, including the Ukrainian one. On February 22, Wang and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke on the phone about this. In a conference in Germany last weekend, however, Wang Yi accused the United States of "fomenting antagonism". Xi's government echoes Russian frustration at what they say is unjust American dominance over global affairs and Moscow's rejection of eastward expansion. But it is a problem.
The different points of view on the sacredness of borders
Politico notes: “The idea that a minority area or ethnic group could simply claim independence and be recognized by a nuclear superpower is China's nightmare, as it is perpetually worried about dissent in regions like Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong. This is not the way Beijing wants international diplomacy to be conducted ”. In fact, if Syria and Nicaragua have followed Putin's orders and supported his recognition of the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, China has not. As indeed it did not do so in 2014 with Crimea. The Communist Party of China is anxious not to legitimize a strategy that could undermine its sovereignty. Each State must be able to remain master of its own territory without having to suffer from external interference.
Russia-China interests converge in their opposition to Washington
In 2014 with the annexation of Crimea – Julienne recalls – Putin found himself very isolated on the international scene. And a partnership with China was proposed, which has been strengthened in recent months: " China and Russia have converging interests in their opposition to Washington".
Xi-Putin's interest in being friends
In the midst of the Ukrainian crisis, on the sidelines of the Beijing Olympics, Putin and Xi met "to make people believe in some sort of alliance". Xi Jinping has not met a head of state in person for two years and has not left the country. The simple photo of the two heads of state without a mask at a distance of 50 cm from each other is a symbol, in a country where health measures are extremely strict. At a time when Putin received the leaders in the Kremlin on the Ukrainian crisis, they were seated at a distance of 5 meters from a table. The physical closeness with Xi evidently aims to demonstrate the trust between the two friends.
Beijing does not want to break with the EU
At the same time, Beijing does not want its growing strategic ties with Moscow to burn its trade relations with rich Western economies that have been unanimous in opposition to the campaign in Ukraine. "Europeans will probably further exacerbate their tone towards Beijing, which could see the floor of relations with the EU collapse," said Bill Bishop , sinologist and political observer.
Xi's strong economic interests in Ukraine
Furthermore, Beijing has strong interests in Ukraine. In 2020, the trade between the two countries was almost 15 billion euros. The territory is also one of the main gateways to the new silk routes in Europe. "Since the establishment of Sino-Ukrainian diplomatic relations thirty years ago, our two countries have always maintained healthy and stable relations," the Chinese president said last month in a telephone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart.
A model for annexing Taiwan
Despite political prudence, China is directly interested in the Ukrainian crisis. It feeds irredentist projects against Taiwan. He claims that one day he will take back the island, if necessary even by force . For some experts, regardless of its economic and commercial interests, China is closely watching the showdown between Moscow and the West and in particular the attitude of the United States. If the Americans and Europeans show no effective reaction on Ukraine, Beijing's confidence in its expansionist plans will be strengthened. And in its desire to rise to the rank of first world power.
"Taiwan, however, is not Ukraine"
But the Ukraine-Taiwan parallel for Beijing ends here. Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on February 22 confirmed once again that for Beijing "there is only one China and Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory". For this reason "the Chinese people have the strong determination and ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity". Hua Chunying 's voice is clearer: “I think it is not wise for the Taiwanese authorities and some people to take advantage of the Ukrainian issue as a hot topic. In fact, Taiwan is not Ukraine ”.
How friendship gets excited
The Sino-Russian friendship also embraces military cooperation and especially energy security, with the latter category gaining ground. Russia is increasingly becoming an important source of liquefied natural gas for China, the world's fastest growing market for this fuel.
Full speed ahead east
The Xi-Putin talks signal, among other things, progress towards the second gas pipeline from Siberia; the Power of Siberia 2 project, a mega-pipeline through Mongolia that could supply up to 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to China each year. So it is true that Europe depends on Putin for energy – Germany and Italy in the lead – and that 83% of Gazprom's supplies are destined for Europe. But Moscow is looking more and more carefully elsewhere. Also for geopolitical incentives. The Power of Siberia 1 pipeline already carries gas from the fields of eastern Siberia to the Far East. And the new Power of Siberia 2 pipeline could give Russia considerable geopolitical leverage in the coming years, being able to choose whether to export its gas west or east.
The new pipeline protects Russia
Nikkei Asia: “The long-awaited pipeline will not only significantly increase exports of Russian gas to China – which this year faced severe energy shortages – but will also reduce Moscow's dependence on European markets and Beijing's dependence on sea routes controlled by US warships ”. "The advantage is very clear: Russia has the energy resources and China has the market," says Lin Boqiang , dean of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University.
Western unknowns
There is more than pure economics behind Russia's desire to strike a deal. Alexander Gabuev , of the Carnegie Moscow Center, noted with Nikkei Asia that, unlike Gazprom's previous pipeline to China, Power of Siberia 2 would draw from the same gas fields that the company uses to supply the European market. Making Power of Siberia 2 a reality would therefore provide Gazprom "further leverage when talking to European customers, especially at a time of heightened tension between Russia and the West". "And even if China won't replace all deliveries to the European market, it can take care of a significant chunk, at least a third."
Energy protection for Beijing
Like Russia, China also has geopolitical incentives to pursue Power of Siberia 2. The country's heavy reliance on maritime imports of energy resources makes it vulnerable to a potential blockade by the US Navy. According to Lin, one way China can mitigate this risk is to get more oil and gas from Russian pipelines. The fact that Russia and China have a common border obviously provides a safer route for gas transportation. A potential downside is that it could make Russia overly dependent on China as a gas customer, a problem that is bound to worsen if relations between the Kremlin and the West continue to deteriorate, pushing Moscow more and more to embrace Beijing.
The alternative to western markets
Russia has spent much of the past decade trying to expand gas exports and other trade with China and East Asian markets to offset the impact of Crimea-related sanctions.
Vladimir sells wheat
China's customs agency also approved – and just as Moscow attacked Kiev – grain imports from all regions of Russia, offering Putin an alternative to Western markets that could be closed due to possible sanctions.
Sanctions push the Bear towards the Panda
"We demand the disconnection of Russia from Swift, the introduction of a no-fly zone over Ukraine and other effective measures to stop the aggressor," Ukrainian President Zelensky wrote on twitter. Italy, France and Austria in particular are wavering. The three countries have the highest banking exposure to Russia, around 25 billion euros each for Rome and Paris. According to many observers, the sanctions push Moscow into the arms of Beijing. Western trade would suffer, while China's importance as an export market and source of investment would increase. In the perspective of a new world paradigm, new systems are emerging. The Swift is based in Brussels. Moscow has developed its own alternative financial information exchange system, so does Beijing. Cooperation with China on this too really draws another world.
Is Xi afraid of Putin now?
Wen-Ti Sung , a lecturer at Australian National University, told DW that China also doesn't want to see Russia take serious action against Ukraine, as the move could create geopolitical uncertainties that Beijing wants to avoid, a significantly stronger Russia . it's not something China really wants to see ”. Sung said China would likely remain comfortable with a limited Russian excursion into separatist-controlled areas in Ukraine, along the lines of the Kremlin's current claims that Moscow troops are "peacekeepers." "If Russia goes full steam ahead, China will have more incentives to try and distance itself."
But Moscow is needed
However, it is difficult to denounce Moscow's actions openly. Beijing wants to avoid offending its most valuable strategic partner at a time when China needs support in the face of a deteriorating security situation in Asia.
Beijing plays everything
"By recently consolidating relations with Russia, Xi intended to intensify international competition to impose a new world order," writes Jude Blanchette , a sinologist at the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington, in Foreign Affairs . A bet that should, in the long term, allow Beijing to advance its pawns, in Taiwan and in the South China Sea in particular. "But by choosing to make this rapprochement in the midst of a Putin -induced crisis, Xi has exposed himself to repercussions and an immediate cost that China cannot afford."
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/non-solo-ucraina-tutti-gli-amori-commerciali-fra-russia-e-cina/ on Fri, 25 Feb 2022 05:49:57 +0000.