Oil will skyrocket. Word of Goldman Sachs
According to investment bank Goldman Sachs, the price of Brent oil will hit $ 90 per barrel by the end of the year. Here are causes and scenarios
Goldman Sachs thinks the price of Brent oil, the international benchmark contract, will hit $ 90 a barrel by the end of the year.
MAGAZINES FORECASTS UP
The US investment bank has revised its estimates upwards – initially it spoke of growth of up to $ 80 – for two reasons: fuel demand has recovered faster than expected from the Delta variant of the coronavirus; on the other hand, the supply of crude and refined products was reduced by the impact of Hurricane Ida on the Gulf coast of the United States, an important world petrochemical center.
THE PRICE OF OIL
Contracts last week of Brent crude oil have almost reached their highest level in three years. It has to do with the fact that, due to production bottlenecks caused by the pandemic, energy companies have to draw heavily on their crude oil reserves.
Brent crude oil was trading at a price of $ 79.19 a barrel this morning; the West Texas Intermediate instead – the benchmark for the US market – at $ 75.08 per barrel.
WHAT GOLDMAN SACHS SAID
In a note published on Sunday, September 26, Goldman Sachs states that "the current global deficit between supply and demand is larger than we expected" due to the rapid recovery from the impact of the Delta variant and the delays in increasing supply. .
THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE IDA
In particular, the impact of Hurricane Ida on the Gulf coast has effectively nullified the increase in oil production decided by the members of the OPEC + organization. The hurricane damaged refining plants, pipelines and oil platforms, severely compressing – and for several weeks – offshore output levels in the region.
Goldman Sachs also said oil production from countries outside OPEC +, with the exception of US shale producers, was not enough.
WHAT DO GAS PRICES HAVE TO DO
The bank expects oil demand to grow as winter approaches, as high natural gas prices are likely to lead to increased power generation from oil.
THE KICKBACKS
Goldman Sachs identifies two factors that could cause oil prices to fall again: the spread of a new variant of the coronavirus, and therefore the imposition of new restrictive policies; but also an excessively aggressive increase in OPEC + production levels that could “flood” the markets with excess barrels.
FORECASTS FOR 2022
For 2022, however, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts for the second and fourth quarters of the year: $ 80 per barrel, instead of $ 85.
According to the bank, an agreement between the United States and Iran on nuclear power could affect the cost of crude oil, which could include the removal of sanctions on the Iranian oil industry and therefore greater availability of barrels on the markets. international.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/energia/goldman-sachs-petrolio-prezzo-90-dollari/ on Mon, 27 Sep 2021 08:39:36 +0000.