Reform 100 Share of Pensions? First undercurrent on Draghi
Among the reforms that the European Commission will recommend on the occasion of the Recovery Plan, will there be the modification of Quota 100 for pensions? The case of Spain. The assumptions in Germany. And the pressures of Confindustria that whispers to Draghi …
The Draghi government has not yet taken shape and a rock is already standing on the route of the technical government ship. Quota 100, that is the social security measure that allows employees, self-employed and para-subordinate workers, who mature a minimum contribution requirement of 38 years and an age of 62, to retire, is in the sights of Confindustria and the European Commission .
Bonomi (Confindustria): "Quota 100 is an injustice towards the youngest"
“We have always warned that 'Quota 100' would create problems of public debt sustainability and aggravate injustice towards the young – said today Carlo Bonomi, president of Confindustria, in an interview with La Stampa -. The idea that by retiring the elderly in advance, new jobs are created is not feasible ”. Bonomi, who is also a supporter of the government led by Mario Draghi , so much so that he is the only exponent of the political and economic system to listen to him in the audience at the Rimini Meeting, is clear in his request to archive the experiences of 'Quota 100' and Income of Citizenship.
Matteo Salvini: "Don't touch Quota 100"
Of a diametrically opposite opinion there is Matteo Salvini who has no intention of sending to the attic a policy dear to the Northern League (and its electors) launched by the yellow-green majority of the Conte I government. of 'Quota 100' as a condition to offer the yes to the new government by its parliamentary group. “Anyone who wants to govern with the League, whether his name is Draghi , Cartabia or Cottarelli, must know. And flat tax at 15 percent and fiscal peace on tax bills – Matteo Salvini told the press yesterday -. The keywords are work, taxes and pensions. Absolute no at the end of one hundred. Two million jobs are likely to be lost here, we cannot think of returning to Fornero. Finally, a plan to open construction sites and a plan to relaunch the infrastructures that we have detailed in our Recovery plan ”.
What does Europe think of 'Quota 100'?
Il Sole 24 ore reports that, according to forecasts made in the first weeks of 2020, pension spending for the next decade, with an estimated GDP growing at an average of 1.2% and an expanding labor market, was given around 15.6% of GDP, about three decimal places less than today's values. Rebus sic stantibus in the early 1930s we would still have been 2.3 points above the pre-crisis level of 2007 (about 42 billion more per year). A good result if we compare it to what will happen in the next fifteen years when there the hump caused by the retirement of baby boomers will form. According to the latest estimates by the State Accounting Office, the level of pension expenditure on GDP will exceed 16%. The recession caused by the pandemic crisis has irreparably damaged this data. The technical committee of the European Commission (Epc-Wga), had estimated that in 2040 the peak of 18% would be exceeded in 2040, the pandemic will accelerate this growth. For this reason 'Quota 100' is not at all appreciated by the other countries of the Union, because it constitutes a debt that Italy has decided to assume and that future generations will have to pay for many years.
The reasons for the yes to 'Quota 100'
The supporters of ' Quota 100 ' will be able to affirm that the adhesions have been a third compared to expectations, thus creating considerable savings. According to an analysis by the Welfare Observatory of the Di Vittorio Foundation , of the CGIL, reported by the Sole 24 ore , on a total expenditure of 21 billion estimated in the three-year period 2019-2021 for "Quota 100", Option Woman, Social Ape and the blocking of adjustments to life expectancy of the requirements for advances, the possible savings are currently close to 7 billion. However, already in 2019, the Parliamentary Budget Office had pointed out that the monitoring being tested will tell only part of the truth and that the true balance will only be made in the final balance because many of those who have not done so so far could ask for the retirement with 'Quota 100' until the last moment.
The return to the Fornero reform as a condition for the Recovery Plan
The European Commission considers the abandonment of ' Quota 100 ', for which a mini-extension until 2022 was considered, and the return to the Fornero reform as one of the conditions for independently managing the 209 billion of the Recovery Plan. It is not for nothing that Brussels insists on the need to indicate the reforms that will accompany investments financed by the Union.
The pension reform in Spain and Germany
The stabilization of social security spending also applies to other countries. Spain , in view of the Recovery Fund, has already mapped out the path to adapt. The Spanish newspaper El Pais reported that Paolo Gentiloni , European Commissioner for the economy, said in the past that Spain is being asked for a strong commitment to reforms in three specific areas: the labor market, pensions and the unity of the market. The same goes for the top of the class, Germany, which, despite having an enviable public finance framework, will have to take action on pensions. As the Handelsblatt reported in recent days, the tensions between Berlin and Brussels are considerable since a wide range of measures to improve the pension system are still pending. Brussels also asks Germany for a tax reform and the liberalization of some professions.
Green Paper from the EU Commission: retired at 70
According to the Green Paper of the EU Commission on the impact of population aging, and as reported by Il Sole 24 ore , the equilibrium of the European pension systems depends on the increase in the retirement age. The average working life should be increased to 70 years , in Italy 71. All this in order to keep the rate of dependence of the elderly constant in the EU, ie the ratio between the elderly population and that of working age. Eurostat's latest projections only suggest workers in Malta, Hungary and Sweden could retire before age 70, while in Lithuania and Luxembourg they would reach 72.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/riformare-quota-100-delle-pensioni-primi-scazzi-sottotraccia-su-draghi/ on Thu, 04 Feb 2021 14:01:34 +0000.