Russia is losing ground in the Caucasus
The renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan shows the weakening of Russia's influence. The insight of the New York Times
Russia helped end the 2020 war and its troops secured the ceasefire. But with a new crisis in the Caucasus, Moscow, distracted and weakened by Ukraine , has not intervened.
In late 2020, when Russian President Vladimir Putin brokered an end to a Caucasus war between Azerbaijan and Armenia and stationed 2,000 Russian peacekeepers between the two sides, it seemed like a strategic masterstroke.
The accord gave Russia a military presence in a post-Soviet country, Azerbaijan, while boosting another country, Armenia's confidence in Russia as guarantor of its security. Putin positioned himself as a peacemaker and seemed to assert his claim to Russia's just influence, as the only power capable of maintaining stability in the entire former Soviet sphere.
THE NEW CONFLICT IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH
Barely two years later, the conflict over Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region is heating up again and Russia, distracted and weakened by the war in Ukraine, has not intervened. By challenging the Russian presence, the Azeris are testing whether Moscow is still able and determined to impose its will on other smaller neighbors, despite its struggles in Ukraine.
Since December 12, the mountain road linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia has been blocked by protests by Azerbaijani activists who claim to oppose illegal mining operations in the area. The Azerbaijani government backed the protests; Armenians say Azerbaijan masterminded them and criticize Russian peacekeepers for not keeping the road open.
"It is clear that Russia's resources in the region are becoming limited," said Farhad Mammadov, a pro-government analyst in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. "Russia is getting weaker."
The roadblocks are a new escalation in the decades-old bloody dispute over an enclave housing tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians within Azerbaijan's internationally recognized borders.
According to Tatev Azizyan, a local journalist, supermarkets in Nagorno-Karabakh have nothing but booze and sweets, and stocks of diapers and basic medicines are so low that residents post to Facebook to look for them. Starting Friday, citizens will have to present ration cards to buy rice, pasta, buckwheat or sugar.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reshaped relations around the world, perhaps more noticeably than on the border between Europe and Asia, strengthening the hands of Turkey and Iran, now major sources of trade and arms for Moscow, and undermining Russian influence in the Caucasus.
Armenia is part of the Russian-led military alliance of six post-Soviet countries, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and hosts a Russian military base. So far, however, the Kremlin, engaged in Ukraine, has not taken any action to help its ally.
After Russian peacekeepers were recently filmed distributing relief supplies outside a local nursery clinic, residents split into two camps on social media: some thanked the Russians, while others asked why they didn't do more. .
THE DIFFICULTIES OF RUSSIA
“No one understands why Russia is unable to reopen the road,” Azizyan said. "People started getting angry and expressing their indignation towards the peacekeepers."
Despite having won the 2020 war, Azerbaijan has yet to achieve all of its goals, including a transport corridor to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, a separate slice of Azerbaijani territory on Armenia's southwestern border, which it would give the country a direct link to Turkey. Russia is also trying to exert more control over the now blocked road, known as the Lachin Corridor, claiming that Armenia is using it to illegally transport landmines into its territory.
Russia has tried to follow a middle path in this escalation. While Armenia is a military ally, Aliyev has developed a close relationship with Putin and both countries are important economic partners for Russia, despite Western sanctions.
“We call on the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides to show goodwill and seek compromises together,” Maria V. Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, said last week.
IS THE RUSSIAN INFLUENCE ON ARMENIA AT RISK?
The Kremlin continues to play a role in the Azerbaijan-Armenian negotiations, and Putin spoke with Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in December in St. Petersburg. In televised commentaries on his meeting with Putin, Pashinyan noted with apparent frustration that "it turns out that the Lachin Corridor is not under the control of Russian peacekeepers."
Last week, Pashinyan went even further in countering Moscow, canceling this year's military exercises in Armenia by the Russian-led alliance.
"Russia's military presence in Armenia not only fails to ensure its security, but increases threats to Armenia's security," Pashinyan said, the Associated Press reported.
According to analysts, however, there is little chance that Armenia will be able to free itself from its dependence on Russia anytime soon – the latest in a series of lessons for post-Soviet countries on the difficulty of emerging from Moscow's shadow in matter of security, especially when instability is threatened. In Belarus in 2020 and Kazakhstan last year, leaders of former Soviet countries turned to Putin for help in the face of popular uprisings, solidifying his hold over both nations.
"Armenia has a huge strategic problem," said Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe who has studied the conflict for decades. Pashinyan "would like a much more balanced foreign policy, yet he is blocked by Russia as the main political-military ally".
However, with Moscow distracted, the European Union and the United States have stepped up their efforts to broker a lasting peace and build their influence in the Caucasus. Pashinyan and Aliyev met last August and October in meetings organized by the European Union, while the foreign ministers of the two countries met in Washington in November.
Analysts have defined the double negotiating track, one led by Russia and the other by the European Union, as unusual at a time when Moscow and the West are engaged in the most intense conflict in recent decades. But EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar said in an interview that he had been in contact with his Russian counterpart, diplomat Igor Khovayev, and had two face-to-face meetings with him last fall. .
“Under the current circumstances there is potentially more room for Armenia and Azerbaijan to overcome the conflict,” Klaar said. “The question is whether they will be able to seize this opportunity.”
(Excerpt from the press release of eprcommunication)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/russia-armenia-azerbaigian/ on Sun, 22 Jan 2023 06:00:36 +0000.