Russia-Ukraine negotiations, what’s happening. Fabbri’s analysis (Scenarios) also on the positions of the USA, China, India and Italy
The latest news on the Russia-Ukraine war and the state of negotiations in the analysis by Dario Fabbri, editor of the monthly Scenari
The first brick was laid in Istanbul for building peace between Russia and Ukraine. The negotiation round between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations lasted about three hours, a summit between Putin and Zelensky should come after the signing of a peace agreement. ( here the in-depth analysis of Start Magazine on the negotiations )
The results of the first negotiations according to Fabbri
" Russia is now getting what it believes is the best possible – commented geopolitical analyst Dario Fabbri to La7 -. He obtains the neutrality of Ukraine, which should go into the Constitution with the cancellation of those three articles calling for a link with NATO , and the absence of military bases on Ukrainian territory. Today the term “denazification” did not emerge, which translated meant overthrowing the institutional regime of Kiev which evidently has returned to being an interlocutor simply because it was not defeated with military intervention. Then the rest is not very clear, for example what the status of the Russian language will be has not been specified today ".
Ukraine close to the EU? Fabbri's analysis (Scenarios)
Russia is not against Ukraine's entry into the EU: Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation for negotiations, told the Ria Novosti agency. Non-opposition to EU membership is part of the Ukrainian negotiators' proposals in talks in Istanbul, Medinsky added to Russian public television. “ Will Ukraine be able to join the EU in the next few years? This may be the compromise – added Fabbri, editor of the monthly Scenari , commenting on the first news from Istanbul -. Ukraine will not be able to enter NATO, it will not have foreign bases on its territory, with Crimea going to the Russian Federation it is not known in how many years to come to the Russian Federation, with Donbass who knows what status but in exchange for all this Ukraine will be able to access to the EU, if the EU wants it. What emerges today is that the fighters are tired , especially Russia. The Russians were unable to get to Kiev and overthrow the government. Thousands, if not hundreds have died ”.
The US does not trust Russia
The United States does not seem to place too much faith in Russia's statements. "There are no signs that Russia is really getting serious in the negotiations with Ukraine – said the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, according to CNN reports -. There is what Russia says and what Russia does . We are focused on the second thing ”. The concern is that the Russians are not keeping their word. "The US is worried that the Russians will announce something and do another", added Fabbri during the special of TgLa7.
The position of Italy
Italy was very cautious at the beginning of the conflict in taking an anti-virus stance. On the one hand, our dependence on Russian gas has weighed , on the other hand the friendship that historically binds our country to Russia. “At the beginning of this war, Draghi was convinced that he had a much wider margin of maneuver on the American administration than he actually did – said Fabbri, guest of Omnibus in recent days -. Put more simply, Italy had a very cold attitude towards Ukraine in the weeks before the war . For many reasons, for our dependence on gas carriers, because we are a pro-Russian country at least in many strata of the population. Draghi was convinced that he could obtain a greater margin for us thanks to his very important entries in the American administration. Then he found out from his American interlocutors that he couldn't do it . We were pulled by the jacket, almost threatened about the sanctions to be imposed on Russia and the armaments to be given to Ukraine. Not that our government did not want to collaborate, but Draghi was convinced that he could move more easily ”. In the course of the conflict, things have changed a lot, so much so that, in today's negotiations, Italy has been called upon to assume a role almost as a mediator between the parties . “After Zelensky Draghi's speech, he vouched for Ukraine's entry into the EU – adds Fabbri -. We should know if this role was proposed to our country or if we found ourselves the guarantor of Ukrainian neutrality ”.
The role of China
China's position during this conflict was pro-Russian but not openly on Putin's side. “ China is in a phase of equilibrium, cheering for Russia because it is anti-Western . China re-emerges from the century of humiliations that goes from the mid-19th century to the Second World War. The century in which China was divided between colonies and Western concessions – said Dario Fabbri to Omnibus -. China has an ambivalent position towards Russia, they consider them usurpers in Asia but they want Russia to win because it would demonstrate the weakness and inability of the West to restrain it ”. On March 24, China voted against the UN resolution condemning Russia for the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. " China was hoping for a blitzkrieg and that it would not have repercussions on its position – added Fabbri -. Today, things are looking bad in terms of propaganda because China is seeing that what is happening in Ukraine is making Taiwan happy. Perhaps the Chinese armed forces have not been tested for many years and this war reminds us of this: the armed forces are only valid in warfare to establish that they are effective. The images are saying that Taiwan could do it ”.
The Indian version
US intelligence at the beginning of the war imagined that India would take sides with the western front instead Narendra Modi's government opted for a line of neutrality. " Delhi has chosen to take the side of Russia by opting for a false neutrality that signals its strategic independence and averted the isolation of Moscow – underlined Fabbri in his podcast" Nine Minutes "on the geopolitical news of the week -. Physiologically anti-Western, the sub-continent takes an anti-NATO stance even though it has elected China as its enemy. But India needs to maintain industrial (including military) ties with Russia so important as to deny the United Nations condemnation of Russia and to develop a rupee-ruble scheme to circumvent sanctions. India wants to keep its own independent way to decide each time how to deal with the various international dossiers ”.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/negoziati-russia-ucraina-cosa-sta-succedendo-lanalisi-di-fabbri-scenari-anche-sulle-posizioni-di-usa-cina-india-e-italia/ on Tue, 29 Mar 2022 16:31:16 +0000.