Semi lockdown in Germany: costs for the economy, controversy and appeals
What is the semi-lockdown being said and happening in Germany? The in-depth study by Pierluigi Mennitti from Berlin
The semi lockdown with which Germany is trying to contain the impact of the second wave of Covid-19 will cost the German economy 19.3 billion euros. More or less 2 and a half points of GDP in the fourth quarter of the year. This is the forecast of one of the most prestigious economic research institutes, the Diw of Berlin ( Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ). A burden that will not fall in a balanced way on the entire German economy, but that will largely weigh on the service sectors affected by the closures, such as gastronomy, hotels and tourism in general. For this segment, already heavily hit by the first lockdown in March and April and recovering in the summer months, a loss of € 5.8 billion is expected in the four weeks of closure in November, equal to 55% of the economic performance of this period .
The economic aid provided by the government (the reimbursement of a quota of around 75% of the turnover recorded in November 2019 to be paid quickly and with few bureaucratic formalities is being studied) will only partially alleviate the losses. The Diw also counts a loss of 2.1 billion euros for companies linked to the sports, culture and entertainment sectors (sports activities suspended, swimming pools and gyms closed, theaters, cinemas and equestrian circuses canceled, fairs canceled and museums closed) and 1.3 billion for the trade sector. Compared to the first lockdown, the shops will remain open, including shopping centers, but will have to undergo reinforced hygiene and safety measures that will limit customer access. It is also easily conceivable that the appeal to leave the house only for strictly necessary reasons such as work, medical visits and food purchases, will reduce the rituals of shopping.
Also according to Diw estimates, the industry will have to estimate 5.2 billion in losses, while the remaining sums will be borne by other services such as logistics. However, this is a limited damage for industry. Angela Merkel, in the press conference held this week at the start of the semi lockdown, was roughly explicit when she had to defend the measures introduced: the definition of the closing sectors was a political choice, she said, also determined by economic evaluations. Merkel explained that this time they wanted to keep the industry open, because a lockdown involving industrial companies would have weighed much more on the economic accounts. He gave the example of the automotive industry, damaged in the spring by various factors, such as the closure of factories and borders that jammed the supply chain but also that of the dealers, which wiped out the sales market, "since no one still buys a car online ”. Hence the decision to keep kindergartens and schools open, to allow parents to show up for work. The Chancellor summed it up as follows: we kept open that part of the economy that gives us the resources to support the part we ask for the sacrifice to close, blocking everything would not have been a wise solution.
This is why the reactions from the economic world have been different. The industrialists are satisfied, restaurateurs and hoteliers are furious and have launched a wave of judicial appeals with which they hope to blow up the measures agreed between the federal government and the regions, as had happened a few weeks ago in Berlin. And if Anton F. Börner, president of the powerful BGA, the organization that gathers under its umbrella all the business associations in the foreign trade, wholesale and services, judges the measures of the according to lockdown, noting how health and economy go hand in hand, Ingrid Hartges, representative of the association of restaurateurs and hoteliers Dehoga accuses: it is as if a work ban had been imposed on us. The crack in the manufacturing world is set to widen in the coming weeks. On the one hand, the industrialists who can coexist with the new rules: those of the car, for example, have returned to doing business thanks to the boom in sales in China, the country from which the virus started and which now, thanks to a specimen management of the pandemic (like the other states of Southeast Asia), has returned to grow at the usual pace.
On the other hand, small business managers, and restaurateurs and hoteliers above all, who now fear that they will no longer be able to recover, despite government aid and who have the impression of being treated by politics as second-class entrepreneurs.
With the ban on tourist overnight stays (it is allowed to book hotel rooms only for business trips), not only have reservations for the month of November skipped, but many hoteliers have had to give the welcome to guests already present. Gastronomy can also rely on the takeaway service, which for some businesses has proved to be a viable alternative already during the first lockdown, but these are emergency solutions.
A survey by the Chamber of Industry and Commerce (Dihk) showed that 42% of entrepreneurs in the gastronomic sector negatively evaluate the current business trend, a percentage that drops to 29 when the gaze broadens to the entire sector of activities productive. 34% of restaurateurs already report liquidity problems.
It is in this area that experts from another research institute, the Iw of Cologne, identify the risk of the greatest job loss. In total, the second lockdown could cause 600,000 new unemployed and an additional percentage point of GDP, director Michael Hüther told Bild. And if the restrictions continue beyond November – a possibility that Merkel has not ruled out at all and that given the numbers becomes probable (today the Koch Institut has communicated 19,990 new cases, a new record) – Germany could have to shoulder the loss of another point of GDP and an additional 200,000 jobs.
For this reason, a wave of urgent appeals to the judiciary has started from the gastronomy and other commercial sectors involved in the “lockdown light”. There are many, they are filling the courts of all the Länder and it is difficult to keep track of them. According to the Handelsblatt, in two days 60 had arrived on the table of the administrative court in Berlin, "but the number is growing by the hour". The president of the association of administrative judges does not make numerical predictions, but he is sure that the appeals will be much more numerous than those advanced in the first lockdown. The Handelsblatt gives an account of some decisions that have already arrived, which have confirmed the legitimacy of the anti-Covid measures, but concludes: "It cannot be excluded that individual measures, in some corners of Germany, really last until the end of November".
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/semi-lockdown-in-germania-costi-per-leconomia-polemiche-e-ricorsi/ on Thu, 05 Nov 2020 13:00:23 +0000.