Superbonus 110, all effects on the economy. Nomisma report

22 February 20231 year ago babelfish

While the government, banks and companies seek an agreement on the credits linked to the building superbonus, the Nomisma research office estimates the impact of the 110% bonus on the economy. Facts, numbers and analysis

Solutions in the pipeline on the Superbonus between the government, banks and companies after the government decree on credits linked to the building superbonus.

The urgency of guaranteeing liquidity to businesses remains on the table. The solution reaffirmed by Abi and Ance is the one already illustrated to the government: "A timely measure that allows banks to expand their purchasing capacity, also using a part of the tax debts collected with the F24". In a shared note, the associations of banks and construction companies claim: «The F24 proposal has the advantage of being applicable very quickly without additional impacts on public finances». The pressing of the banks for this type of mechanism is also dictated by the need to point out that the fiscal capacity of the credit sector is now exhausted. Although the Revenue Agency has indicated that the credits absorbed by the banks in 2022 are equal to 7 billion, compared to a capacity of 32 billion, the ABI observes that the tax figures do not include all the commitments undertaken by the banks. In short, the figures written in the institutions' procedures would indicate that the room for maneuver is now exhausted.

In short, there are sparks between banks and the government on the Superbonus. The ABI denies having a "treasury" of 34-35 billion in tax debts to be offset with stranded building credits amounting to 19 billion, as instead claimed by the Ministry of the Economy on data from the Revenue Agency. And it relaunches the idea of using, for the same compensation, the account holders' taxes paid to the Treasury via the F24 form. An idea that the executive does not disdain, but expects it to be of a limited amount. Thus the rapid solution desired by the construction companies to unblock at least the previous situations is far away. And the concern of the companies that stopped work in the aftermath of the "block credit" decree of 17 February is growing. The president of Confindustria Carlo Bonomi speaks of "hasty decisions" taken by the government, which first "throws businesses and families into panic" and only then "summons the parties". And it announces the willingness of "a class of manufacturing companies", the most solid, "to buy credits that are now at a standstill". Provided that "first-degree assignments between private individuals" can be made

Last week the Government put an end to the 110% superbonus, destroying another piece of the economic philosophy that characterized the years of the yellow-red government. A decree-law, immediately published in the Official Gazette, significantly changed the rules of the 110% superbonus and the restructuring bonus with a discount on the invoice. “The bonus strategy, and with it the possibility of transferring credits, should not be archived but only rethought and to do this you need skills and balance. It is necessary to treasure an extraordinary experience to define a renewal policy that does not have the shortness of breath of the emergency". To say it is Luca Dondi, CEO of Nomisma , a business consultancy company that has studied the economic and social impacts of the Superbonus 110.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY WORKS OF 65.3 BILLION EUROS

The Meloni Government wishes, in continuity with what was hoped for but not implemented by the Draghi Government, to send the bonus season to the attic. However, the measure had significant effects on the national economy. According to a Nomisma study, the «110% Monitor» periodically disclosed on the basis of proprietary information assets and the analysis of third-party sources, the overall total of works undertaken for energy efficiency in our country is equal to 65.3 billion euros , with an average investment of 175,234 euros. “ 47% of the total, equal to a total of 30.5 billion euros (and an average investment of 594,892 euros) – writes Nomisma -, concerned planned interventions in condominiums, against 24.5 billion for single-family buildings (113,846 euros average) and 10.3 billion relating to functionally independent buildings (96,878 euros on average)”.

ALMOST 373,000 CONSTRUCTION SITES OPEN

The construction sites opened in 2022 were 372,297 , according to ENEA data, for a total value of the completed interventions of 49.7 billion euros . Of these, only 51,247 concerned condominiums , therefore the type of dwellings that should have benefited most from the provision, against 215,105 for single-family buildings and 105,945 for functionally independent units. According to estimates by Nomisma's 110%Monitor, around 232,000 construction sites should have been completed and would cover less than 2% of the residential building stock in Italy.

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE 110% SUPERBONUS: 195.2 BILLION EUROS

According to what was reported by the Nomisma research office, the overall economic impact of the Superbonus 110% on the national economy amounted to "195.2 billion euros , with a direct effect of 87.7 billion, 39.6 billion indirect effects and 67.8 billion induced”. Figures that clash with those pitted by the Premier during her social appointment "Giorgia's notes", during which she spoke of a cost, for the state coffers, equal to around 2 thousand euros per citizen (and 71.8 total billion euros) . Actually already in 2021 an analysis produced by the National Council of Engineers (CNI) showed that the deficit for the state coffers would be compensated by the generation of GDP. The sustainability of the measure would not have been achieved before 4 or 5 years, a period in which "the demand for renovations and energy efficiency improvements in buildings could have remained at high levels, activating further growth effects in the economic system". Nomisma estimates that the increase in the value of the properties subject to redevelopment, in the hypothesis that all the redeveloped real estate units fall within the most efficient energy classes, would exceed 7 billion euros.

THE EUROPEAN DIRECTIVE FOR GREEN HOMES

The Government has chosen to salute the Superbonus 110% despite the fact that a directive is being discussed in Europe which will require States to make real estate assets more efficient from an energy point of view (by 2033 minimum class D and zero emissions by 2050). In our country, about 68% of residential properties have an energy efficiency classification of D or even lower , therefore very low. According to Nomisma data, the efficiency of buildings through interventions financed by the Superbonus 110 has allowed an average saving in bills of 964 euros per year . The data also show a reduction of 15.5% for a single jump in energy class, 30.9% for a jump in 2 energy classes and 46.4% for a jump in 3 classes.

THE SOCIAL IMPACTS OF THE SUPERBONUS 110

If the superbonus has had distorting effects on the increase in the prices of raw materials and services, it is also true that it has undoubtedly had a social impact. On the one hand, the building sector saw an increase of 641,000 employed and 351,000 employed in related sectors . On the other hand, it has allowed 1.7 million Italians with a low-middle income to access deep-seated home redevelopment. A less well-off portion of the population that otherwise would not have benefited from it.

This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/superbonus-110-tutti-gli-effetti-sulleconomia/ on Wed, 22 Feb 2023 07:57:28 +0000.