The 56th Censis report depicts a latent, melancholic and waiting Italy
How are the Italians according to Censis. The intervention of Francesco Provinciali
Reading the welfare state of the country through the glasses of Censis has always been decisive for grasping the short-medium term trends in progress: the current one marks a radical discontinuity with respect to the past, one could say that we are on the threshold of a new era. The negative impact of stagnation and recession changes lifestyles. The era of plenty is over even if the picture of uncertainties has been manifesting itself for some time: the same dichotomous scheme has changed between income earners and less well-off social strata (guaranteed versus unguaranteed) as inflation concerns everyone, even with related differentials.
HOW MUCH THE ENERGY CRISIS WEIGHTS
The protective shield of savings accumulated due to the energy crisis is no longer there.
The fluctuations in GDP between 2020 (strongly negative at minus 9%), the rebound in 2021 plus 6.7% and 2022 with an acquired growth of 3.9% while the IMF assumes a minus 0 for our country, 23% for the year ahead, express uncertainties and discontinuities. 93% of Italians are convinced that inflation will last for a long time, 69% fear for their standard of living (of which 79% among the lowest incomes) 64% are using up savings to cope with inflationary dynamics .
WHAT IMPACTS THE MOST ACCORDING TO CENSIS
The pandemic, the war in Ukraine, high inflation and the energy grip are the four overlapping vectors that explain the current state of crisis and add to the country's structural vulnerabilities: we are in a post-populism phase as they are looming, beyond ideological affiliations, protective measures with a certain continuity, especially among Western governments (duties, repatriation of production, energy policy).
From this point of view, it no longer makes sense to speak of populist drifts, in fact it is not a question of demagogic expectations polarized on unrealistic tendencies. The theme of nationalism resurfaces everywhere, not just here.
WHO IS WORSE
Globalization appears to have impoverished large sections of the middle classes and the economic crisis determines a mix of collective social behaviors oriented towards pessimism and inaction.
At the moment there are no flare-ups of conflict in the square but there is a sort of "silent withdrawal of the lost citizens of the Republic", according to the brilliant definition of the Director General of CENSIS, Valeri. It is important to point out that in the last general elections the predominant party was by far that of the non-voters (about 18 million citizens, equal to 39% of those eligible. Between the general elections of 2006 and those of 2022 the non-voters are doubled). The belief that anything can happen has settled in the collective imagination, a sort of alienating fear towards imminent dangers is spreading. The sequence between work, economic well-being and democracy no longer works.
THE FEARS OF ITALIANS
We are entering an age of uncontrollable planetary risks: 84% of Italians fear that distant events could radically change their lifestyles and expectations for the future, 61% fear the third world conflict, 59% think about the possibility of atomic bomb, 58% fear that Italy could enter the war.
There is an intersection between major historical events that break into our daily lives, within the micro stories of our existence. The collective behaviors typical of the consumer society are radically changing compared to the dynamics of the past: making a career, modernizing, growing on the social ladder, surrounding oneself with material goods, improving expectations in a future that now ends up calming down in the present.
THE WINDING NIHILISM
Eight out of 10 Italians say they don't want to make sacrifices to change, 36 out of 100 are unwilling to make a career in work, even to earn more. The nihilism of this time can be explained through the prevailing feeling of melancholy, the ego is not moved by propulsive impulses towards domination and change of the world around it. The projective mechanisms that have characterized the past, even the recent past, get jammed: there is a crumbling of expectations and an absence of strong motivations. We try to curl up in minimalist niches of protection and security, fearing catastrophic and destructive events.
WHAT FUTURE WITHOUT YOUNG PEOPLE?
Despite a historical decrease in crimes, the widespread perception is a fear of vulnerability, insecurities and risks, including personal ones. Falling birth rates and a negative demographic tsunami will gradually empty the classrooms, from compulsory schooling to university. We also risk having a health system without doctors and nurses.
In short, an expansive historical cycle is perhaps closing, the myth of progress breaking through the limits, one by one emotionally reassuring certainties fall and insecurities prevail in the face of an unknown that cannot be described. Inaction, latency and melancholy as the prevailing collective feeling abruptly resize expectations rooted in the collective imagination of the recent past. But an extension of the latent phase of social life involves the risk of a kind of masochistic renunciation, without strength and ambition, of any effort to transform the systemic and civil order of our society. A sort of coiling in selfishness, a spiral winding of the social structure that nails us all to short-term goals, in a prevailing condition of uncertainty resilient to an optimism that does not exist.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/mondo/il-56-rapporto-del-censis-dipinge-unitalia-latente-malinconica-e-in-attesa/ on Sun, 04 Dec 2022 08:18:52 +0000.