The American arms industry is not so ready for a conflict with China. Wsj report
According to a CSIS study reported by the Wall Street Journal, the war in Ukraine is highlighting the inability of US arms manufacturers to replenish military stocks
The war in Ukraine has exposed widespread problems in the US arms industry that could hamper the US military's ability to fight a protracted war against China, according to a new study.
Since Russia's invasion of the country last year, the United States has pledged to send Ukraine more than $27 billion in military equipment and supplies, from helmets to Humvees. The arms supply was believed to help Ukrainian forces block an invasion ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin in what has become Europe's largest ground war since World War II.
THE WAR IN UKRAINE HAS REDUCED US WEAPONS STOCKS
But the protracted conflict has also highlighted the strategic danger facing the United States, as stockpiles of weapons have fallen to a low level and defense companies are ill-equipped to replenish them quickly, according to a study by Seth Jones, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank – reports the WSJ .
“The crucial point is that the defense industrial base, in my view, is not prepared for the current security landscape,” Jones said in an interview. The industry is operating in a way "more suited to an environment of peace," he added.
AMMO WOULD RUN OUT QUICKLY IN POTENTIAL CONFLICT WITH CHINA
Jones said the study, which reflected contributions from senior military, defense, Congressional, industry and other government bodies, showed how quickly the US military would run out of munitions in a potential conflict with China in the 'Indo-Pacific.
“How do you deterrent if you don't have sufficient stockpiles of the types of ammunition you need in a China Strait-Taiwan type scenario?” warns Jones.
THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE IS NOT LIKE THE WARS IN IRAQ OR AFGANISTAN
For the past 20 years, the United States has been fighting insurgency warfare, a troop-intensive strategy in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, but the conflict in Ukraine is largely conventional warfare that relies heavily on heavy weapons. A potential conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific would be different from the ground war unfolding in Ukraine, but would still have to draw heavily on US stockpiles of weapons.
DIFFICULT TO CREATE A CREDIBLE DETERRENT IN THE Indo-Pacific
Industrial base problems, in part due to outdated military procurement procedures and slow bureaucracy, are now affecting the ability to create a credible deterrent in the Indo-Pacific region or engage China in a military conflict, according to study findings .
“These shortcomings would make it extremely difficult for the United States to sustain a protracted conflict,” the report reads. "They also show that the US defense industrial base lacks the capacity to withstand a major war."
THE CHALLENGES FOR THE AMERICAN WEAPONS INDUSTRY
The rate of arms consumption by Ukrainians is rapidly demonstrating the challenges the US industrial base could face in a protracted conflict over Taiwan. The number of Javelin shoulder-fired missiles shipped to Ukraine since last August, for example, is equivalent to about seven years of production, based on fiscal year 2022 production rates.
The number of Stinger anti-aircraft systems supplied to Kiev represents roughly the same number of systems exported abroad over the past 20 years, according to the study. Meanwhile, Washington's shipment of more than a million 155mm rounds to Ukraine has reduced the US military's stockpiles, which the study says are now considered scarce.
Stockpiles of the Javelin system, howitzer artillery and counter-artillery radars are also considered low, according to the study.
Platforms, such as the Harpoon coastal defense system, which is considered an important element of Taiwan's defense strategy, are considered average, although current stockpiles may not be sufficient for wartime, according to the study.
“The history of industrial mobilization suggests that it will take years for the defense industrial base to produce and deliver sufficient quantities of critical weapon systems and munitions and to recapitalize depleted inventories,” the study reads.
THE CONCERN OF THE TOP MILITARY ABOUT DELAYS IN THE SUPPLY OF WEAPONS
Military leaders have also expressed growing frustration with the industrial base in recent months. Admiral Daryl Caudle, head of the US Armed Forces Command, has called out the defense industry over delays in arms supplies.
“I don't condone that they don't deliver the ordnance we need,” he said when asked to balance the US military's readiness amid shipments of billions of dollars of assistance to Ukraine. “All this stuff about Covid, about spare parts, about the supply chain, I don't care,” he said. “We all have difficult jobs.”
THE CHALLENGES OF SUPPLYING TAIWAN WITH WEAPONS
While the United States and its allies could send billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine after last year's invasion, Pentagon planners predict that Taiwan could not be easily supplied after a conflict erupts, as Chinese forces they would probably blockade the island. There is already a backlog of more than $19 billion of US weapons in Taiwan, based on approved sales since 2019.
The CSIS study singled out the US government in particular, which has failed to adapt, remaining “risk averse, inefficient and slow” when it comes to its industrial base. Government regulations governing overseas military sales are outdated, and the current process can take 18 to 24 months, according to the study.
BUREAUCRATIC SLOWDOWNS
“In an effort to prevent military technology from falling into the hands of adversaries, the United States has implemented a regulatory regime that is too slow to work with critical frontline countries,” the report reads.
The study cited an example where the decision to supply Taiwan with an unnamed weapon system using the US Foreign Military Sales process added two years to the delivery date, meaning it took four years to arrive on the island counting the two years of production.
“This is a significant and problematic difference, given the ongoing tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” the study reads. Although the type of weaponry that US officials believe Taiwan needs to fight is in many cases different from what has been sent to Ukraine, the conflict in Europe has nonetheless exposed the cracks within the industrial base and the government to address the problem, Jones said.
BEIJING'S APPROACH TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WAR
At the same time, the government has yet to adjust to what Jones and others argue is a war mentality that requires government agility and efficiency to enable the defense industry to produce more weapons.
China's autocratic government, on the other hand, has invested heavily in military modernization in recent years.
A series of wargames conducted by CSIS in recent months has shown that the United States, in the event of a conflict with China, could run out of some weaponry, including long-range and precision-guided munitions, in less than a week.
Jones recommends that the United States reassess its total ammunition needs, urging Congress to hold hearings on the matter. Chairman of the Army Staff Gen. Mark Milley said in November that such an effort is already underway.
The study also suggests reevaluating US stockpile requirements, creating a strategic ammunition reserve, and determining a sustainable ammunition procurement plan to meet current and future requirements.
(Excerpt from the foreign press review of Epr Comunicazione)
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/innovazione/industria-americana-delle-armi-non-e-pronta-per-un-conflitto-con-la-cina-report-wsj/ on Sun, 29 Jan 2023 06:09:10 +0000.