The European economic scenario and the strategy of the Meloni government
At European level, a macroeconomic picture is emerging that is consistent with the strategy of the Meloni government, all aimed at placing sandbags in front of doors and windows while waiting for the storm to pass. Giuseppe Liturri's analysis
In months in which navigation is really on sight, any data that allows for a minimum of visibility on the future of the economy is awaited and analyzed with great attention. And today we learned that, in November, the eurozone economy continues to experience a sharp slowdown, but signs are arriving that indicate at least a stabilization of the situation compared to previous months.
These are the conclusions that emerge from reading the PMI data published today by S&P Global relating to the Eurozone as a whole and Germany and France. These are indices calculated on the basis of sample surveys carried out among purchasing managers which often constitute an accurate anticipation of the data officially recorded in the following months.
The Eurozone as a whole remains in negative territory (index below 50) but substantially unchanged compared to October, with the composite index between manufacturing and services rising from 47.3 to 47.8 and the PMI index (which also observes other variables) up from 46.4 in October to 47.3.
Germany and France differ in a greater contraction in the first country than in the second. But the dynamics compared to October sees the Germans slightly up and the French slightly down.
The slowdown, as already evident in October, affects the manufacturing sector and the sectors with a higher intensity of energy consumption or in any case linked to energy production. Services continue to slow due to falling consumer demand.
Among the causes that led at least to the slowdown in the fall in the level of economic activity, we note the easing of bottlenecks along international supply chains, the mild autumn climate throughout Europe which eased the pressure on energy prices and the first signs halting the growth of producer prices.
These indicators are consistent with a forecast of a 0.2% drop in eurozone GDP in the fourth quarter. All in all, an acceptable figure, if we consider the risks that still hang over the economy of the old continent.
We will know the details of Italy's performance next week, but these initial indicators confirm the picture of a moderate-intensity recession that is affecting the Eurozone between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. What will happen after the first quarter remains under the influence of too many unknown variables whose estimation appears really difficult if not impossible. A picture consistent with the Meloni government's strategy, all aimed at putting sandbags in front of doors and windows while waiting for the storm to pass.
This is a machine translation from Italian language of a post published on Start Magazine at the URL https://www.startmag.it/economia/lo-scenario-economico-europeo-e-la-strategia-del-governo-meloni/ on Wed, 23 Nov 2022 12:55:02 +0000.